Some numbers as the sky falls
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Some numbers as the sky falls
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We get it. We've heard your emails, tweets, comments, calls... you're worried. The National League Championship Series from a season ago has spawned an inferiority complex among a fan base. At the very instant that a baseball juggernaut like the Phillies stumbles — believe it or not, that happens in a 162-game season — immediately all fingers are pointed to those six games against San Francisco.
See! It's happening all over again!
No, the Phillies have not played good baseball of late. In 12 of their previous 13 games, they have scored three or fewer runs. And, well, they have still won five of those 13 games (a .385 percentage).
Yet the Phillies remain on pace for 103 wins. Yes, eight games still remain in this season. Baseball past is littered with examples of momentum benefitting a team, hurting a team, and doing nothing to a team. The Phillies will not lose a postseason series because they could not beat St. Louis and Washington in meaningless games.
What we will offer are some interesting numbers about the offense for various reasons...
— Shane Victorino, at once a candidate to finish in the top 10 for NL MVP, is hitting .118 in his last 105 at-bats since Aug. 24. His OPS has dropped 81 points in that span, from .940 to .859.
— Ryan Howard has started only seven of the Phillies' last 15 games. The Phillies are 3-5 without him in the lineup. And one of those wins came directly because of his late substitution. A healthy Ryan Howard is an integral cog in the lineup. (Surprise!)
— Since acquiring Hunter Pence on July 30, the Phillies have fielded their ideal postseason lineup exactly four times. All four of those games were victories.
— Chase Utley's 12.7 percent line drive rate ranks 195th out of 196 major-leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances. (Only Washington's Wilson Ramos has a lower one at 12.6 percent.) Utley's OPS is 62 points lower than a season ago and 135 points lower than 2009.
— Against lefthanders, Utley is hitting .196/.293/.324 in 116 plate appearances. Only eight of his 36 extra-base hits have come off lefties. Victorino remains deadly against lefthanded pitching with a .310/.424/.612 slash line in 140 plate appearances. His 1.037 OPS against lefties is ninth best in the majors.
In the postseason, is it time to split Utley and Howard to avoid the Javier Lopez Effect again? The numbers say yes.
— Yes, obviously the Phillies would like to score more runs, but their record when scoring three or fewer is astounding. They are 30-44 in such games for a .405 winning percentage. The next closest is San Francisco at .326. After that, it's Detroit at .302.
Historically, the Phillies could set some marks. Right now they rank in the top 15 winning percentages with three runs or fewer since 1950. Until recently, only the 1969 Mets had a better winning percentage:
| Rk | Tm | Year | G | W | L | RS | RA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYM | 1969 | 84 | 38 | 46 | .452 | 153 | 249 |
| 2 | STL | 1967 | 63 | 28 | 35 | .444 | 118 | 181 |
| 3 | NYG | 1951 | 57 | 25 | 32 | .439 | 126 | 189 |
| 4 | STL | 1968 | 94 | 41 | 53 | .436 | 164 | 261 |
| 5 | PIT | 1992 | 79 | 33 | 46 | .418 | 155 | 264 |
| 6 | LAD | 1963 | 80 | 33 | 46 | .418 | 143 | 257 |
| 7 | NYY | 1951 | 55 | 23 | 32 | .418 | 109 | 188 |
| 8 | HOU | 1979 | 84 | 35 | 49 | .417 | 156 | 272 |
| 9 | BAL | 1970 | 65 | 27 | 38 | .415 | 138 | 199 |
| 10 | ATL | 1995 | 58 | 24 | 34 | .414 | 120 | 197 |
| 11 | NYG | 1954 | 56 | 23 | 33 | .411 | 105 | 174 |
| 12 | PHI | 2011 | 74 | 30 | 44 | .405 | 143 | 230 |
| 13 | ATL | 1992 | 74 | 30 | 44 | .405 | 145 | 249 |
| 14 | CLE | 1954 | 57 | 23 | 34 | .404 | 112 | 191 |
| 15 | ATL | 1993 | 72 | 29 | 43 | .403 | 135 | 221 |
Unbelievably, of the 11 teams ahead of the Phillies on that list, seven won the World Series. Two others won league pennants. Two did not win either.
I believe we've had this discussion before: At its core, these Phillies are a very talented team that relies heavily on their pitching and defense. The offense must simply score enough to win, and on most nights, that will require few runs.
Back to the jumping line at the Walt Whitman.
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While we're suggesting batter orders, here's mine: Victorino/Polanco/Pence/Howard/Rollins/Utley/Ruiz/Ibanez
Shane is a much better leadoff hitter than Rollins, & Pence is as close to an ideal number 3 as you can get. Ibanez has far & away the lowest OBP, but can be dangerous, so at least they'll pitch him carefully and he can turn the lineup over.
Against lefties I bat Mayberry 5 & move the other 3 down.— princeton22- The fact is that these games aren't meaningless. They would be meaningless if 1) the Phils were healthy, or 2) they were playing good baseball. But neither of those things is happening. You can say, "Don't worry, Howard and Pence will be back at 100% when the playoffs start. All they need is rest." But no one is sure of that. Having those two guys less than 80% would practically doom this team to miniscule offensive production. And it's not like the guys who are relatively healthy--Victorino, Utley, and Rollins--are doing anything to fill you with a lot of confidence that they could pick up the slack. Those three, when they've played, have been horrible over the last few weeks. The fact is that the Phils are very vulnerable right now. Getting 100 wins over a 162-game season is one thing, getting 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 7 is something altogether different.— Bretzky
- The Phillies offense has certainly struggled lately.
But it's worth noting that since Utley joined them on May 23rd, the Phils have been the highest scoring team in the NL.— schmenkman - The only series left that means anything is the Braves series, and that will be used as a tune-up for getting the prime starting 8 back in a groove.— ESFjellin
- Not too worried about Garcia, the Phils are 1-1 against him this year. Wolf on the other hand, and I am not saying this because he is a lefty, I am saying this because he throws no harder than 90 MPH and has a slop Curveball, is the type of pitcher that the Phils have trouble with. He throws junk much like Brett Myers and Livian Hernandez. Junk pitchers have field days against the Phillies it seems like. Braves have two shut-down lefties in OFlaerty and Venters, but to be honest, they are showing signs of wear and tear and are getting hit harder now then they earlier in the year. And another thing with Atlanta is aside from maybe Tim Hudson, if Hanson or Jurjenns dont come back, the Phils should roll that starting pitching staff and make the bullpen irrelevant. The Cardinals are the team that worries me because going up against Pujols, Berkman and Holliday (if healthy) is scary for any pitcher.— ESFjellin
- That's the scary part, the last 4 loses, and two of them are against Garcia and Wolf, (right?) two pitchers that always give us trouble and we can face in the playoffs. That record against lefties does not reflect how many times lefty relievers shut down our LH hitters late in games and preserved the leads. If Atlanta doesn't cough up the WC lead, they are really tough against us with all those lefties late in the game. That's why need Pence and Chooch to be close to 100%.— EL Zorro
- The last time Charlie sent out the ideal lineup was against the Cards and they won 9-2. And yes, it is amazing to see how no team fears this lineup when Howard is out of the lineup.
— ESFjellin - The only numbers that matter are our record and BA against LH pitching, and with the scare last night with two of our best RH coming lame and the manager refusing to take them out, that could be very problematic.— EL Zorro
- Despite a .244 batting average against lefty starters, the Phils are 30-13 against lefties this year. Before losing the last 4 games against lefties, they won their previous 13. If anything, Charlie needs to sit Raul against the lefties which means you start Mayberry (which Charlie has done well this year)and move Utley away from Howard come playoff time. — ESFjellin
- I'm no genius, but it seems to me that the lineup that produced the best record in baseball would be the one I'd use in the playoffs. This is no time for meddling.— dlscholt
- The signal I wish Charlie would send now is sentiment be damned, he's taking his best 25 into the playoffs and if a Moss outplays Gload or Kratz outplays Schneider or De Fratus outpitches Herndon, then there will be some surprised spectators this October. Complacent baseball is losing baseball.— Claudio Vernight
- Charlie should rest the entire starting line-up for the next three games. They play like they do not care and could really need a rest. Rollins and Victorino are lunging and reaching for every pitch, Polanco could not pull a ball down into the LF corner if he was standing on 3rd base, Utley lets the best strike go by every AB, Howard can't hit left handed pitched curve balls, Pence swings at pitches over his head, Ibanez swings late at most fastballs and Chooch could be more selective.
Then I would play the entire starting line-up for the last 5 games to prepare for the post season.— Rutgers82 
why would you take one of the best run producers in baseball out of the cleanup spot? wow... you know nothing about baseball xyzzyx— MPatt24- polly and pence are hitting .157 and .235, respectively, in late/close situations. Howard is hitting .295. The lineup should be rollins, chase, polly, howard, pence, victorino, ibanez/mayberry, chooch.— palmyra21
- 3 and 4 holes should be filled by Polanco and Pence -- guys who can hit when the pressure's on!— Xyzzyx
- Yankees were 5-5 in their last 10 game in 1999. They won the WS.— palmyra21
- Correction of above post:
Should be AB/HR = 37 this year; 22 career.
Add these stats to the ones in the article and you can see Utley is a major weak link in the chain.— Xyzzyx - After the 98+ win team that played poorly down the stretch loses in the World Series because they suddenly went into another hitting funk, the fans are upset, the writers go on vacation, and the team releases a statement about how happy they are about their "great" season. Then the team asks the fans to buy season tickets for next year.— Freedom Fries
- Name a 98+ win team that ever won the World Series that played this poorly down the stretch. What typically happens is this: the team gets hot temporarily, and wins the division championship series and the league championship series. The writers say: see we told you, there was nothing to worry about. Then, inevitably, the team cools off, can't hit at all during the World Series, and loses badly.— Freedom Fries
- utley stinks right now. shane's season is leveling out to where it should have been right now. bastardo imploded. howard is hurt. pence may miss some time. polanco is about due for another dl trip. starting pitching has not been sharp. its so easy so say that we will be fine once the playoffs start but that is nothing more than positive thinking. realistically thinking, the phils need some players to right the ship before the playoffs start in eight games and need to get healthy. could be another early exit in the playoffs if we cant score runs again.— psualum
- Matt - you are correct - losing meaningless games now does not mean they will lose a postseason series; the reason they are losing meaningless games very well may come back to bite them in the postseason. Look no further than the Fyers to see that a team can't flip a switch when the playoffs start.— Higgs11
- Cliff Lee can hit 4th.— Clt Philly Fan
- How about the nightmare of a bullpen?— scootch
- Been saying for a few weeks now Charlie should hit Chase 6th or 7th in the playoffs. He won't, though. I'd go: Rollins, Polanco, Victorino, Howard, Pence, Ibanez/Mayberry, Utley, Ruiz. There's real nice righty-lefty (and switch hitting) alternation there. Zip chance Manuel will do it. He'd rather take his chances than be "dis-loyal" to guys like Utley and Howard.— eman
- let's move them all down so we can have um....who exactly to bat 3rd and 4th.— palmyra21
- Utley is the real dog in the lineup. Some numbers:
HR/AB = 37 this year; 22 career
OPS = .770 this year; .883 career (>100 points lower!)
BA = .261 this year; .290 career (>30 points lower!)
SLG = .427 this year; .506 career (79 points lower!)
Utley is a disaster in the 3-hole -- time to move him down the lineup. With Howard hitting .249 (.274 career), Utley and Howard back-to-back in the lineup are rally killers. Howard should be moved down too to the 5 or 6 hole.— Xyzzyx 
Comment removed.- ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...these games are meaningless...Phillies will start getting pumped up the last 5 games, before the playoffs start....then they will have their REAL LINEUP AND ROAR INTO THE PLAYOFFS...AND WIN THE WORLD SERIES..— frank105
