So, what's left?
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So, what's left?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The baseball world waits for tonight, when the winning bidder on Japanese wunderkind Yu Darvish is announced. The Phillies? Well, their waiting is over now that Jimmy Rollins agreed to terms on a new contract.
The first workout for pitchers and catchers in Clearwater, Fla., is still 62 days away. But the Phillies, barring an absolute shocker of a move, have quite a good idea how their roster will look.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has spent $88.4 million this winter on six free agents — Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, Jim Thome, Laynce Nix, Dontrelle Willis and Brian Schneider — and acquired Ty Wigginton through a trade.
Sixteen players have signed guaranteed contracts and four others were tendered contracts under the arbitration process. So, what we're saying is it could be somewhat quiet from now until the middle of February.
Of course, every time we insinuate such a period of inactivity, the Phillies surprise. With $135 million already guaranteed to the 2012 payroll and about another $30 million in arbitration, any unexpected move would likely come in a trade.
But there are still some things to be done this winter...
1. Sign Cole Hamels. Amaro said his priority was to take care of his 2012 roster before looking ahead. Now he has some time to consider an extension for Hamels, who will be a free agent after this season. It should be his primary task.
Hamels made $9.5 million in 2011 and is due a significant raise through his fourth and final year of arbitration. He could earn upward of $14 million.
On the open market, he could command an average annual value of $20 million. Hamels turns 28 next week. He's entering the prime of his career with five straight seasons of at least 183 innings pitched. He finished fifth in 2011 Cy Young voting.
There are indications from both sides that a long-term deal can be done this winter. Hamels' agent, John Boggs, has said before he does not prefer his clients to negotiate during the season. He did most of the heavy lifting on an extension for another client, Adrian Gonzalez, during Boston's spring training last year.
Amaro said he had spoken with Boggs earlier this winter to make his stance clear: The Phillies want to re-sign Hamels. There was just other stuff to attend to first.
But now, there is no excuse for not engaging Hamels' party.
2. Who is the fifth outfielder? Any projection of the April bench is difficult because the Phillies have yet to decide how they will fill holes in left field and first base in Ryan Howard's absence. Left field could be a platoon between John Mayberry Jr. or Nix — or it could be Mayberry's job full time. Or perhaps Mayberry mans first base until Howard returns. But Wigginton could play first, too.
So there is a lot of flexibility, but logic suggests there is at least one position player roster spot undecided for the opening day roster sans Howard. The "bench" is Mayberry, Thome, Nix, Wigginton, Schneider and Wilson Valdez. Two of them will have to be in the lineup until Howard returns. That leaves an extra spot, probably for an outfielder. Remember, this is tenuous spot because it could be eliminated upon Howard's eventual return.
That would have been Ben Francisco's spot, but the Phillies dealt him to Toronto. John Bowker remains on the 40-man roster, but there are reports he could be headed for Japan. And he didn't exactly endear himself in September.
If Domonic Brown isn't playing every day, he won't be in the majors. So that eliminates him. Scott Podsednik is a guy to watch in spring training. He's back as a non-roster player after spending a few (mostly injury-riddled) months with triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2011.
Guys like Ryan Spilborghs, Willie Harris, Scott Hairston, Reed Johnson and Mark DeRosa are still free agents. The Phillies have liked Spilborghs and Hairston before. But those players could find more playing time, money and guarantees elsewhere. If one wants to come to Philadelphia on the cheap without a lot of security, then sure.
The Phillies have only invited one non-roster outfielder, Podsednik, to spring training. Expect the next round of invitees to include some more outfielders.
3. Is another veteran bullpen arm required? This question won't really be answered until Jose Contreras begins throwing. That is scheduled to happen sometime in January. If it's earlier in the month and Contreras fails to make progress, that could prompt the Phillies to scour the bargain bin for another trusted reliever.
Then again, the bullpen is teeming with promising young arms. If Papelbon, Contreras, Willis, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick are guaranteed spots, that leaves only two open for the group of Mike Stutes, David Herndon, Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimer, Joe Savery and Jake Diekman.
Remember, the Phillies invited Brian Sanches to spring training and he could be that veteran backup plan. He has a 2.92 ERA in 181 2/3 major-league innings over the last three years.
4. Where will the old crew land? This doesn't really pertain to the Phillies' plans, but a handful of former players remain free agents with uncertain destinations. Ryan Madson's market has collapsed and the closer could be looking at a one-year deal now. His hope must be for Boston to bypass the luxury tax limit and spend for a closer.
Roy Oswalt is still out there and he'll likely receive at least a two-year deal from someone. His possible destination could be made clearer once the Darvish process ends.
Brad Lidge is looking for a job and Colorado is a logical landing spot because Lidge is from there and still has a house in the area. He'd like to return to Philadelphia, where he's spending the winter for the first time, but there might not be room.
Raul Ibanez probably makes most sense for an American League team that can use him in a LF/DH platoon against righthanders. With some of the top-tier outfielders like Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham and Jason Kubel off the market, Ibanez could find suitors.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
2008 was 4 baseball seasons ago - pre-Rube— warbiscuit- Gonna be tough to improve on a 102 wins don't you think?..The Phillies went cold in the hitting department and ran into a hot team in the Cardinals but the Phillies are still one of the best teams in the National League if not the best...So before we go bashing them I would see what happens after this year...A healthy team and the additions they've made sure looks like a 100 win season to me— Colin19
- Healthy Cards will beat healthy Phillies any time. Holliday and Berkman are always tough outs, work pitchers, and get on base. The Phillies have nobody in that category, so while the Cards' pitching falls slightly short of the Phillies', they can throw balls and smile and laugh while the Phillies' chase them making feeble outs, where the Phillies pitchers have to work to get through the Cardinals' line up. — jtj06
- ridiculous of all you rube-worshippers to say that "well, gee, if Lee and Oswalt do their jobs in the post-season, then the Phils could have won that series".. first of all, as for Oswalt, he was consistently quite mediocre to awful for all of 2011 (and indeed for first half of 2010 before being traded to Phila and having a good 2 months where he never went beyond 6 or 7 innings and had a better record than he pitched ) so as for Oswalt he pitched to expectations and shouldnt have even been in post-season rotation, and (2) as for Lee, he was 3rd in Cy Young voting and had one bad game in post-season for Phils ... and even so had the Phils any half-decent offense they certainly should have been able to score in final 6 innings against a motley crew of relievers in that game ...so the question is what kind of flawed team is it that can't win a post-season series if every one of their starters isnt virtually flawless every single start --the rube put together a shallow team based only on starters that requires near-perfect from every starter to win in post-season -and rube has done nothing to change that dynamic --don't blame Lee that he has one bad game for Phils in post-season and his team can't bail him out after the numerous times when he's bailed the team out--even to the extent where many games he often generated his own offense— warbiscuit
- You are absolutely right. Imagine how much trouble the Phillies will be in if Hallday, Lee, and Hamels just pitch to their career norms- which are outstanding. Hallday career ERA 3.23, Lee 3.65, and Hamels 3.39. Last year all three of those guys had career years and because of an inept offense, all they could do was win 102 games (check out the Braves, Orioles, Mets for teams who had similar pitching in the playoff era, they all won at least 106) and get knocked out in the first round, with a huge rotation advantage and home field advantage. — jtj06
- but warbsicuit aren't you excited about them re-signing Schneider and adding the great Laynce Nix? oh yeah --and Dontrelle --though he cant pitch real good, he can always pinch hit --dont you see the method to the great Amaro's madness?— emperorisunclothed
- really tired of all the crowd chanting "not the Rube's fault --blame Cliff Lee" -- considering how Pujols and the Cardinals so totally anhialated virtually every other pitcher they faced in post-season, one could argue that Lee's game against StL wasnt even so bad; the flip side is considering how nobody else in post-season seemed to have much trouble scoring against Carpenter or any of the Cards relievers, how could the Phils hitters look so inept against these same pitchers, and how does the Rube spend $170 million on a poorly-balanced offense-challenged team that is so inept hitting for 2 straight post-seasons and literally do nothing about it, while wasting $50 million unnecessarily on a closer who wont even be as good as the cheaper one he's letting go?— warbiscuit
- warbiscuit may be overly negative but he has a very valid and very good point that I agree with: Great pitching alone may win a World Series but to have the odds in your favor you also need above average hitting. Despite whatever regular season stats we can throw out there about their hitting not being as bad as we think, one thing is clear: They've had problems hitting post-season pitching for two years now. Going with the exact same lineup doesn't exactly acknowledge that. RAJ is a good GM but, so far, he's no Gillick. I think he and others aren't always realistic about how long ago 2008 was.
That said, I'm still a fan and will still hope for all the "if he stays healthy" and other stars align for a post-season run that doesn't end too early. We also start the season with a much different outfield and bench, which could have more of an effect than I'm thinking it will.— s - The first month of this year will be extremely important with Howard most likely still recovering. Who will be the clutch man who bats cleanup and drives in the key runs during that time? Utley is a table setter and has always done poorly at driving in runs from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Pence is not a cleanup hitter either but may be our best choice to hit 4th till Howard returns. My guess is that Nix is going to get a chance to play left field against righties to start the season with Mayberry playing 1st base. Nix is a 6th spot hitter who has power but does not knock in runs with singles and doubles. Against lefties, Wigginton will play first with Mayberry switching to left field.. Thome, I see as getting very few starts at 1st but basically will be a pinch hitter. There is no mention of Mike Martinez as a bench player this year and if he's not going to be considered, we could use one more player like a Hairston or Spillbourghs..— bradco
- Just a reminder - the much maligned Phillies hitters scored more runs than the Cardinals for the series and the two of the Phillies much heralded pitchers (Lee and Oswalt) gave up 10 runs in 12 innings.— Dragon13
- The re-signing of Schneider and his measly batting average will be the running joke amongst the league's GMs at their annual winter meeting.— TEDcGEGI
- This team as it is today will make the playoffs. The pitching is too good to not to. Once in the playoffs if Halliday. Lee, and/or Hamels go on a streak, as they all have done in the past, then a WS win is higly possible.— towman
- Also kind of hoping that Howard's injury will keep him from pulling the ball. Make him stay back on the ball, hit to the left more often and cut down on the strikouts.— towman
- Have I been sleeping under a tree since October or is third base still unsettled? Yes, I know Polanco is projected as the opening day 3rd baseman, but whose going to play that position most of the season. Polanco's lack of offense during the NLDS was most apparent. And, hernia or no hernia, he is not the player he once was. #5 Figure out 3rd base, please.— VANDERGRAAFK
- The team is as good as last year's as it stands now. It is older but the guys should be recovered from injuries. The bench is far better. Rube is pacing himself holding onto old veterans and waiting for the next year or two when the team as we know it starts to disappear.— Barneyboy
