So, what's left?
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So, what's left?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The baseball world waits for tonight, when the winning bidder on Japanese wunderkind Yu Darvish is announced. The Phillies? Well, their waiting is over now that Jimmy Rollins agreed to terms on a new contract.
The first workout for pitchers and catchers in Clearwater, Fla., is still 62 days away. But the Phillies, barring an absolute shocker of a move, have quite a good idea how their roster will look.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has spent $88.4 million this winter on six free agents — Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, Jim Thome, Laynce Nix, Dontrelle Willis and Brian Schneider — and acquired Ty Wigginton through a trade.
Sixteen players have signed guaranteed contracts and four others were tendered contracts under the arbitration process. So, what we're saying is it could be somewhat quiet from now until the middle of February.
Of course, every time we insinuate such a period of inactivity, the Phillies surprise. With $135 million already guaranteed to the 2012 payroll and about another $30 million in arbitration, any unexpected move would likely come in a trade.
But there are still some things to be done this winter...
1. Sign Cole Hamels. Amaro said his priority was to take care of his 2012 roster before looking ahead. Now he has some time to consider an extension for Hamels, who will be a free agent after this season. It should be his primary task.
Hamels made $9.5 million in 2011 and is due a significant raise through his fourth and final year of arbitration. He could earn upward of $14 million.
On the open market, he could command an average annual value of $20 million. Hamels turns 28 next week. He's entering the prime of his career with five straight seasons of at least 183 innings pitched. He finished fifth in 2011 Cy Young voting.
There are indications from both sides that a long-term deal can be done this winter. Hamels' agent, John Boggs, has said before he does not prefer his clients to negotiate during the season. He did most of the heavy lifting on an extension for another client, Adrian Gonzalez, during Boston's spring training last year.
Amaro said he had spoken with Boggs earlier this winter to make his stance clear: The Phillies want to re-sign Hamels. There was just other stuff to attend to first.
But now, there is no excuse for not engaging Hamels' party.
2. Who is the fifth outfielder? Any projection of the April bench is difficult because the Phillies have yet to decide how they will fill holes in left field and first base in Ryan Howard's absence. Left field could be a platoon between John Mayberry Jr. or Nix — or it could be Mayberry's job full time. Or perhaps Mayberry mans first base until Howard returns. But Wigginton could play first, too.
So there is a lot of flexibility, but logic suggests there is at least one position player roster spot undecided for the opening day roster sans Howard. The "bench" is Mayberry, Thome, Nix, Wigginton, Schneider and Wilson Valdez. Two of them will have to be in the lineup until Howard returns. That leaves an extra spot, probably for an outfielder. Remember, this is tenuous spot because it could be eliminated upon Howard's eventual return.
That would have been Ben Francisco's spot, but the Phillies dealt him to Toronto. John Bowker remains on the 40-man roster, but there are reports he could be headed for Japan. And he didn't exactly endear himself in September.
If Domonic Brown isn't playing every day, he won't be in the majors. So that eliminates him. Scott Podsednik is a guy to watch in spring training. He's back as a non-roster player after spending a few (mostly injury-riddled) months with triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2011.
Guys like Ryan Spilborghs, Willie Harris, Scott Hairston, Reed Johnson and Mark DeRosa are still free agents. The Phillies have liked Spilborghs and Hairston before. But those players could find more playing time, money and guarantees elsewhere. If one wants to come to Philadelphia on the cheap without a lot of security, then sure.
The Phillies have only invited one non-roster outfielder, Podsednik, to spring training. Expect the next round of invitees to include some more outfielders.
3. Is another veteran bullpen arm required? This question won't really be answered until Jose Contreras begins throwing. That is scheduled to happen sometime in January. If it's earlier in the month and Contreras fails to make progress, that could prompt the Phillies to scour the bargain bin for another trusted reliever.
Then again, the bullpen is teeming with promising young arms. If Papelbon, Contreras, Willis, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick are guaranteed spots, that leaves only two open for the group of Mike Stutes, David Herndon, Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimer, Joe Savery and Jake Diekman.
Remember, the Phillies invited Brian Sanches to spring training and he could be that veteran backup plan. He has a 2.92 ERA in 181 2/3 major-league innings over the last three years.
4. Where will the old crew land? This doesn't really pertain to the Phillies' plans, but a handful of former players remain free agents with uncertain destinations. Ryan Madson's market has collapsed and the closer could be looking at a one-year deal now. His hope must be for Boston to bypass the luxury tax limit and spend for a closer.
Roy Oswalt is still out there and he'll likely receive at least a two-year deal from someone. His possible destination could be made clearer once the Darvish process ends.
Brad Lidge is looking for a job and Colorado is a logical landing spot because Lidge is from there and still has a house in the area. He'd like to return to Philadelphia, where he's spending the winter for the first time, but there might not be room.
Raul Ibanez probably makes most sense for an American League team that can use him in a LF/DH platoon against righthanders. With some of the top-tier outfielders like Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham and Jason Kubel off the market, Ibanez could find suitors.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
kendrick pitched so well last year, he should be in the starting rotation. he should take blanton's space. blanton has done nothing to deserve being in the rotation. let blanton do long-relief and spot starting until his contract is up at the end of 2012. then shake his hand, thank him for the last half of 2008 and kick him to the curb.— zwarte piet- Still trying to understand how this team improved?— dri_as_a_bone
- The bench is stronger, but the starters are the same and another year older. Net zero. They still need to score more runs consistently and I see no improvement there - compromised power with Rollins, Utley and Howard all on bad wheels. Gotta hope Mayberry comes thru big this year. — Xyzzyx
- They scored more runs the last 3 months of the season then any other team in the NL. The weak bench hurt them in the postseason when they were forced to play, for example, a very gimpy Polanco. With an improved bench they just need to perform as they did in the 2nd half and the offense will be fine. — wildbill99
- Actually, they have probably gotten worse financially. The Howard contract is going to be as bad, if not worse, than the Pujols contract for the outyears. Well, at least Pujols could DH. Third-base is unsettled. Left field is unsettled. Worley may prove to be a one-year wonder. Whose the fourth starter then? Blanton? At best, he is now a fifth starter until he proves otherwise. Kendrick? Maybe in a fantasy league. The last improvement was Hunter Pence. That was a major upgrade. The bench? It may be better; it may be no worse. — VANDERGRAAFK
- Zwarte...Blanton has done "nothing" to deserve being in the rotation? Really? He was only a huge part of the reason they won the World Series in 08, and, aside from last year, due to injuries, has been a very consistent and effective starter in his career. Give the guy a little respect.— vvvmetallicavvv
- 2008? Really? — ALJ
Comment removed.- Blanton was very good at both the end of 2008 when we first got him and in 2009. Injuries have been his biggest issue since then. I think he'll be back to form in 2012. The guy gets so much grief for being on the DL. People forget how often pitchers end up hurt. The Phillies have had good fortune in that area for the most part. If Lee or Halladay hits the DL I suppose they'll also be worthless? We know how it would go with Hamels in this town.
Kendrick surprised me with how good he was in his new role in 2011. I'd keep him in the same role. If one of the starters goes down KK is ready to go. You hit a double header and he's also there. It worked out pretty well in 2011.— s - it was ok to have a starting pitcher with an era between 4 and 5 back in 2008-2009 when we were considered an offensive powerhouse.. those days are over and we cant afford to keep a pitcher in the rotation like that anymore - especially when he is often injured and especially when we have shaky relievers. his big selling point was that he was an "innings eater", yet he hasnt gone over 200 innings once, even when healthy. kendrick has paid his dues and he deserves to be rewarded with the one thing he wants - a spot in the rotation. — zwarte piet
- Kendrick's ERA as a starter is 4.50. That solves what?
He arguably had his best year in 2011. Why mess with that until you have to?— s - Are you a personal friend or related in some way to Fat Joe Blanton? The guy is totally worthless; his ERA last season was exceeded only by the girth of his stomach. Get rid of this guy---stop talking about his past performances; games aren't won on a player's former reputation. — TEDcGEGI
- dri_as_a_bone:
Not really sure why they need to improve on 102 wins, so other than Lee actually showing up and earning his paycheck in October, here is where they actually "improved"
Full year of Pence
Full year of Utley
Way, WAY better bench
I am not ready to call Mayberry in LF an upgrade, but there is a reasonable chance of that as well.
People want to rag on the Phillies offense, but it was one of the most prolific offenses in MLB in the 2nd half of the year - especially after they signed Pence. If there was a problem, it was Lee and Oswalt allowing 10 earned runs in 12 innings to the Cardinals...right? - I see you bought in to the notion that great pitchers should throw shutouts every game and that beating up on 4th/5th starters and middle relievers in July and August will help you in October. The only improvement the Phillies had is letting Ibanez go, since he is the guy who redefined WAR to WBR (Wins below the average replacement player). An average replacement player is an improvement and hopefully Mayberry can do better than that since he actually got to some good pitchers last year-- unlike most of his teammates. — jtj06
- If you can't see Mayberry as an upgrade to that stiff Ibanez - a butcher in LF and rally killer - you can't see anything. — Bob1
