Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
We'll begin with these caveats: We are not doctors. We have not reviewed Ryan Howard's medical charts. We have not spoken with the doctor who performed surgery for a torn Achilles because Mark Myerson denied comment.
Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We'll begin with these caveats: We are not doctors. We have not reviewed Ryan Howard's medical charts. We have not spoken with the doctor who performed surgery for a torn Achilles because Mark Myerson denied comment.
So here is what we have to go on:
1. The Phillies have established a timetable of five to six months for Howard's recovery "until he can play at his accustomed level." Even then, Ruben Amaro Jr. is leaving the door open for something longer because, as he said, "A lot depends on how he recovers."
2. History shows that five to six months is optimistic for a recovery from an injury like this.
Again, Howard's injury could be less severe than others. Medicine may have improved significantly since some of these older injuries. Myerson is the leading foot and ankle specialist in the country. Howard has taken good care of his body in recent years.
For context, we did some extensive research of old newspaper clippings from the previous decade or so. There are few examples of baseball players — at least at the major-league level — suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon like Howard did. For the ones we found, we compared dates reported with game logs to ascertain when the injuries and returns occurred.
Here is what we found:
JOSE CONTRERAS
Ruptured Achilles on Aug. 9, 2008
Returned April 10, 2009
KEVIN FRANDSEN
Ruptured Achilles March 24, 2008
Returned for one game on Sept. 28, 2008
GABE KAPLER
Ruptured Achilles on Sept. 14, 2005
Returned to majors on June 17, 2006 after seven rehab games
EDUARDO PEREZ
Ruptured Achilles on May 9, 2004
Missed rest of 2004 season
CARLOS HERNANDEZ
Underwent surgery for ruptured Achilles on March 18, 1999
Missed entire 1999 season
GREG DOBBS
Ruptured Achilles second game of 2003 season
Missed rest of 2003 season
ROBERT PERSON
Ruptured Achilles in early February 2004
Never pitched again
OLMEDO SAENZ
Ruptured Achilles on Oct. 1, 2002
Played in minor league rehab games by end of June 2003 and then disappeared for personal reasons
***
The ideal scenario would be something like Frandsen, who missed almost six months on the dot. But he returned only for one at-bat in the final game of the season and reporters in San Francisco termed it a "quicker-than-expected recovery."
Every story about Contreras' eight-month recovery from the injury suggests it was nothing short of a surprise. On March 16, the Chicago Sun-Times wrote, "The usual recovery time for such a devastating injury is a year, and some in the organization feared it might be a career-ender for Contreras, 37."
Even then, Contreras had an 8.19 ERA after his first six starts and was sent to triple A in May. He came back in June and posted a 3.97 ERA for the remainder of the season.
***
This isn't to say Howard cannot make a similar quick recovery, something for which the Phillies have initially budgeted. Amaro said Howard's injury will not affect his offseason plans. But if John Mayberry Jr. is the favorite for left field and he must substitute at first base for a few months, that could create a hole.
Either way, there is reason for skepticism on the original Howard timeline. The Phillies hope he can return sometime in April — hey, maybe even opening day. But that could merely be optimism.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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If I'm a betting man, I would put my money on July 1. A big man who relies on his lower body to generate power needs two healthy wheels to play and be effective. No way that happens in 6 months.— jpk- i am more concerned about howard's brain than i am about his ankle. i hope howard will use this recovery period to become a student of the game, watch tons of film, and become obsessed with the mechanics involved with being a more selective hitter. i hope that he sets the bar for himself to be a .300 hitter next year. i hope he realizes that, whether he likes it or not, he is one of the leaders on this team, and he needs to demonstrate that he will do whatever is necessary to improve himself- in his case that means stop going in to periodic long slumps where he gets tunnel vision and strikes out every other at-bat
— zwarte piet - He's more likely to practice his poses
— justacarpenter - Five to six months sounds about right.
At least to ensure that season ticket sales don't take a hit. The last thing the organization wants to do following a dreadful NLDS is to announce that Howard may miss the entire 2012 season. They have a consecutive sell-out streak to maintain.
— PhightinPhil - I think July 1 is more realistic than April. Even then, any positive contribution the rest of the year from RH would be a surprise. They need to look for a replacement that can fill in for much of the season.— PortCity
- They have the replacement with Mayberry.— P Even
- I wouldn't waste Marberry at 1st - I would resign Raul to a one year deal and he could fill in at 1B until Ryan returns and then he could be a lefty with power off the bench. — jimyd0315
- Glad you're not running things. — bearsfriend
- When you don't know the answer, it's prudent not to guess.
Let's allow the man to heal and then talk about his 2012 availability.— yahzooman - Wilt Chamberlain was never the same after his Achilles and Wilt was the greatest athelte, bar none, to ever play in Philadelphia. The nose is just an overweight guy that hits a long ball every so often. I say he's out for all of next year and then, who knows.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Wilt was not the greatest athlete to play in Philadelphia. He wasn't even the greatest basketball player to play in Philadelphia. He was a giant in a league of smaller men. Great player, but hardly the greatest. — Bella914
- If Wilt wasn't the greatest athlete in Philly, who was? Did you see him in his prime? Do you know what else he was great at? BTW - Shawn Bradley, Mark Eaton, and Manute Bol were in a league of smaller men too.
- Robert Person pitched in the minor leagues for years after that.— jaredphillyfan
- Is he a free agent? We need him! Can he play first? Howard won't be back for a year!
...Who is Robert Person and who gives a ... how he was after he had this? Are you saying Howard will now play in the minors for years? Are you saying Mr. Person is related to Ryan, therefore will recover, but not good enough to play in the majors? I am missing the whole concept behind your post.— justacarpenter - Who is Robert Person?!?! Are you serious? Just goes to show what type of Phillies fan is generally found on these types of sites. Glad you've been on-board as a hard-core fan these last five years. — CornerPretzelGuy
