Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
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Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We'll begin with these caveats: We are not doctors. We have not reviewed Ryan Howard's medical charts. We have not spoken with the doctor who performed surgery for a torn Achilles because Mark Myerson denied comment.
So here is what we have to go on:
1. The Phillies have established a timetable of five to six months for Howard's recovery "until he can play at his accustomed level." Even then, Ruben Amaro Jr. is leaving the door open for something longer because, as he said, "A lot depends on how he recovers."
2. History shows that five to six months is optimistic for a recovery from an injury like this.
Again, Howard's injury could be less severe than others. Medicine may have improved significantly since some of these older injuries. Myerson is the leading foot and ankle specialist in the country. Howard has taken good care of his body in recent years.
For context, we did some extensive research of old newspaper clippings from the previous decade or so. There are few examples of baseball players — at least at the major-league level — suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon like Howard did. For the ones we found, we compared dates reported with game logs to ascertain when the injuries and returns occurred.
Here is what we found:
JOSE CONTRERAS
Ruptured Achilles on Aug. 9, 2008
Returned April 10, 2009
KEVIN FRANDSEN
Ruptured Achilles March 24, 2008
Returned for one game on Sept. 28, 2008
GABE KAPLER
Ruptured Achilles on Sept. 14, 2005
Returned to majors on June 17, 2006 after seven rehab games
EDUARDO PEREZ
Ruptured Achilles on May 9, 2004
Missed rest of 2004 season
CARLOS HERNANDEZ
Underwent surgery for ruptured Achilles on March 18, 1999
Missed entire 1999 season
GREG DOBBS
Ruptured Achilles second game of 2003 season
Missed rest of 2003 season
ROBERT PERSON
Ruptured Achilles in early February 2004
Never pitched again
OLMEDO SAENZ
Ruptured Achilles on Oct. 1, 2002
Played in minor league rehab games by end of June 2003 and then disappeared for personal reasons
***
The ideal scenario would be something like Frandsen, who missed almost six months on the dot. But he returned only for one at-bat in the final game of the season and reporters in San Francisco termed it a "quicker-than-expected recovery."
Every story about Contreras' eight-month recovery from the injury suggests it was nothing short of a surprise. On March 16, the Chicago Sun-Times wrote, "The usual recovery time for such a devastating injury is a year, and some in the organization feared it might be a career-ender for Contreras, 37."
Even then, Contreras had an 8.19 ERA after his first six starts and was sent to triple A in May. He came back in June and posted a 3.97 ERA for the remainder of the season.
***
This isn't to say Howard cannot make a similar quick recovery, something for which the Phillies have initially budgeted. Amaro said Howard's injury will not affect his offseason plans. But if John Mayberry Jr. is the favorite for left field and he must substitute at first base for a few months, that could create a hole.
Either way, there is reason for skepticism on the original Howard timeline. The Phillies hope he can return sometime in April — hey, maybe even opening day. But that could merely be optimism.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Comments (93)
If I'm a betting man, I would put my money on July 1. A big man who relies on his lower body to generate power needs two healthy wheels to play and be effective. No way that happens in 6 months.— jpk- i am more concerned about howard's brain than i am about his ankle. i hope howard will use this recovery period to become a student of the game, watch tons of film, and become obsessed with the mechanics involved with being a more selective hitter. i hope that he sets the bar for himself to be a .300 hitter next year. i hope he realizes that, whether he likes it or not, he is one of the leaders on this team, and he needs to demonstrate that he will do whatever is necessary to improve himself- in his case that means stop going in to periodic long slumps where he gets tunnel vision and strikes out every other at-bat
— zwarte piet - He's more likely to practice his poses
— justacarpenter - Five to six months sounds about right.
At least to ensure that season ticket sales don't take a hit. The last thing the organization wants to do following a dreadful NLDS is to announce that Howard may miss the entire 2012 season. They have a consecutive sell-out streak to maintain.
— PhightinPhil - I think July 1 is more realistic than April. Even then, any positive contribution the rest of the year from RH would be a surprise. They need to look for a replacement that can fill in for much of the season.— PortCity
- They have the replacement with Mayberry.— P Even
- I wouldn't waste Marberry at 1st - I would resign Raul to a one year deal and he could fill in at 1B until Ryan returns and then he could be a lefty with power off the bench. — jimyd0315
- Glad you're not running things. — bearsfriend
- When you don't know the answer, it's prudent not to guess.
Let's allow the man to heal and then talk about his 2012 availability.— yahzooman - Wilt Chamberlain was never the same after his Achilles and Wilt was the greatest athelte, bar none, to ever play in Philadelphia. The nose is just an overweight guy that hits a long ball every so often. I say he's out for all of next year and then, who knows.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Wilt was not the greatest athlete to play in Philadelphia. He wasn't even the greatest basketball player to play in Philadelphia. He was a giant in a league of smaller men. Great player, but hardly the greatest. — Bella914
- If Wilt wasn't the greatest athlete in Philly, who was? Did you see him in his prime? Do you know what else he was great at? BTW - Shawn Bradley, Mark Eaton, and Manute Bol were in a league of smaller men too.
- Robert Person pitched in the minor leagues for years after that.— jaredphillyfan
- Is he a free agent? We need him! Can he play first? Howard won't be back for a year!
...Who is Robert Person and who gives a ... how he was after he had this? Are you saying Howard will now play in the minors for years? Are you saying Mr. Person is related to Ryan, therefore will recover, but not good enough to play in the majors? I am missing the whole concept behind your post.— justacarpenter - Who is Robert Person?!?! Are you serious? Just goes to show what type of Phillies fan is generally found on these types of sites. Glad you've been on-board as a hard-core fan these last five years. — CornerPretzelGuy
- You still didn't answer the question. What does he have to do with Howard and Howard's injury? ...And can he play 1st? LOL!! What do you want...Person's stats? — justacarpenter
- What does Robert Person have to do with Howard's injury? Well, maybe the fact that he is listed in the article as an example of the expected rehabilitation timeframe. What's the point of looking at the rehabilitation time for the same injury? Well, if you average each of their recovery times, you have a reasonable estimate of when you can expect Howard back. The article lists that Person never pitched again. jaredphillyfan points out the inaccurate statement that he never pitched again. He ruptured his achilles in 2004 and pitched in the minors in 2005. LOL!! What do you want...someone to read the article to you? — Jamo
- I expect him to come back in mid July but his power output could very well be inadequate. Without power, what good is a player like Howard who can't run and cannot play any other position except 1B? Manufacturing runs is what this team HAS to be all about. I frankly doubt that the players the Phillies have can do this well enough. It's almost a shame to have the great SPs we have considering our pathetic offense.— James TL
- I don't see much in the examples that's enlightening one way or another. Since many of the injuries occurred early or mid-season, all we know is they missed the rest of the season. Would they have been back in 6 months if the season had still been ongoing? we don't know. Just because some probably equally uninformed reporter from the Sun Times thought this was fast does not mean it was. I have no clue and when I heard 6 months it sounded short to me too, but that is based on no real information, and I don't feel that has changed after reading this article. As a stats guy Murphy, you should know a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE when you see one...— Phils Phan 28
- OK, Gelb, not Murphy, comment still stands although now undermined by my own carelessness.— Phils Phan 28
- Recovery time comparisons should be made with guys of similar height/weight as Ryan. It's going to be longer for a big man.— n62
- Sept 1 2012. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.— Drew777
- The most recent example on the list is 2008?! Medical technology has changed even since then, let alone the older dates on the list. How about guys in the last year or 2 max. Sheesh— DennyP
- I just feel so bad this happened to Ryan. He is a great class guy. Never complains and plays hurt. I'm hoping his recovery time is short. Hope see you in Clearwater next year Ryan.— Grapost
- I ruptured my Achilles about 10 years ago. Although athletes have much better treatment facilities, I can't see how he can be ready in 6 months. My foot was immobilized for 3 months, after that I had no calf strength or flexibility for another 4-5 months while going through rehab. It was about a year before I was pain-free and trusted running on my injured ankle.
Fortunately, he doesn't rely on speed or explosion. After the year my ankle was stronger than the non-repaired achilles.— EagleNation999 - One of the forgotten guys who was having a career year in 2011 at AA was left handed hitting, left fielder Steve Susdorf. He was on the verge of qualifying for the Eastern League batting lead in late July when he suffered a season ending leg injury running at first base. Susdorf was hitting .386 for July before the injury. He is just the type of line drive, contact hitter with some pop who would fit nicely in the Phils lineup in left until Howard comes back and Mayberry can return to left. Lets hope he is making a full recovery and is given a shot in the major league spring training camp.— Dull
- Based on Frandsen's suspension - was it earlier this year or last? - and San Francisco Giants pedigree, perhaps he had some extra help in his "quicker-than-expected" recovery.— frankenslade
- I hope that if the Phils see Mayberry as the long term answer in left field that they put him there and not at first base. Particularly if the Phils are sincere, and not just venting, about Domonic Brown spending 2012 in AAA ball. There are other answers for first base on a fill-in basis, even a committee of Utley and Ross Gload's replacement, maybe Ben Francisco against a lefty. Mayberry needs work on his break on fly balls and I don't see how filling in for Howard will help that. I would put him in left and leave him there unless Brown surprises us all favorably in spring training.— Claudio Vernight
- Well at least you're not speculating, lol. The guy just had the surgery. They won't even know how long the recovery is until he start rehabbing. Contreras is irrelevant. He is a pitcher so he had to build back up arm strength after his Achilles was recovered. Not the same for a position player. Plus, anything from 5 or more years ago is also irrelevant. Surgery and rehab techniques are constantly advancing. There was a time when pretty much any knee surgery meant a guy was out at least 6 months...now some of these guys get their knees scoped and they are back in a few weeks.— JimG
- Hoping Howard will continue to work out and not put weight back on now that he not as mobile. Should also watch a lot of batting films during his period of down time.— dogman5
Comment removed.- Comment removed.
- I heard — justacarpenter
- Howard's also a big man. I'm saying after the All-Star break and even then, he's not real effective next season. Grapost: Glad to see someone has Howard's back. Yeah, it's tough to watch him K at times. But we'll miss his RBI, I'm sure, and he handles himself well.— eman
- I will miss his striking out every time he faces a left hander.— farley
- A lot depends on the physical condition of the player at the time of the injury, as well as his age. I would rate Howard's condition at a 7 out of 10 and his age is 31. I doubt he'll be back in 6 months, I think June 1 is more realistic.— my3cents
- My gut tells me not to expect Howard's return until the All Star break, at best.— CrotchetyOldMan
- I think the official line on Utley from the team was they hoped to see him in the lineup opening day, and then of course miseed the first two months. Lidge IIRC was a similar story, except back by the all-star break. This team is never forthcoming about player injuries.
Of course, Howard was as mobile as a fire hydrant before the injury and movement is not really part of his game, but I'd still be shocked to see him back before June 1st, and most likely not before the all-star break.— Only in Philly... - How about if he stays out longer so that he plays BETTER than his "accustomed level" when gets back?— philorchphilsphan
- I don't agree with a July 1st comeback. I think it will be July 2nd.— Boru
- EagleNation999 has the correct timeline. I ruptured my Achilles as well. You are in a cast up tp your hip for the first three months. Then smaller casts to start stretching the tendon for the next 6-weeks. This is a minimum of 9 months before he is on the field and even at that he will only be 85%. This injury takes 18 months to fully recover from whether you want to hear it or not.— ctycouncilfrauds
- Back by May. Effective by ???
— Rick Wise Guy - I hope that they also fixed some of the other problems with that ankle while they were in there. Since Howard initially sprained his ankle last year, he has not been the same.— gotedge
- Maybe he'll be shooting the juice like he did his first couple of years, gain his weight back, be back in time for Spring Training and hit 58 HR's
— shadow22 - The phillies have more important measures to make than worrying about a month or two for Howard.
Replacing a third baseman and shortstop in the same year is a risky enterprise while trying to compete for their division.
Connor Jackson, a free agent up in Boston, would be a good fill in for Howard and would be a better insurance in the outfield than Ben Francisco.He would make the team more versatile and add speed to the lineup.
Signing Reyes would be the icing on the cake.— candidly - I'm with Humbolt....he is gone the entire year.
Denny - It involves cutting the ankle open and sewing the tendon back on. It isn't brain surgery. I doubt the last 2 years show different results.— justacarpenter - Alas! ... his pretty poses may never be the same.....— justacarpenter
- Do we have to pay Howard even if he is out?— old SC Frank
- All Star break; no sooner.— JBinPA
- I would be more concerned about his heart than his achilles— Old German
- Old frank, you don't pay Howard so don't worry about it!— JBinPA
- So, Matt. Your entire column can be summarized thusly: "I have no idea what I'm talking about and I'm making a bunch of uninformed guesses based on a sample size of eight." Thanks for the insight.— rwellsinbc
- The man will miss this season. I believe Howard was not completely recoverd from a foot injury. If it takes all season so what. He needs to be 100% on his return. Too much worry about winning games. Get well first then win games.There are enough millionaireson this team to let the man healand win games.— tobyjoe
- Also rember everyone is different. He may not heal as fast as the guy who said he hurt his Achilles.I just hope he recovers and get back to hitting the ball all over the park. My favorite phillie.— tobyjoe
- This is an unfortunate development. Even healthy, Howard's skills are falling off the cliff.— 4thand10
- If we never signed him to that ridiculous contract, this would not be as big an issue. Sure he might return by April/May, but he won't reach his typical .255/30HRs/120RBI output until July/August. Could we sign Thome to play 1B until Howard returns? Can Thome even play everyday at his age? If so, we can leave JMJ in LF. Maybe sign Raul to a cheap 1-year contract to come off the bench and spell JMJ.— BleedPhilly
- These freakin' audio advertisements have to go!!— dogman5
- He comes back in June. As for 1st base, I think it is way more likely the Phillies opt for Chase Utley at 1B over Mayberry. They could then move Polanco to 2nd where he is actually a better player because of his elbows issues. The Phils look for a 3B with some pop(I know it may not be possible) and Polanco becomes the infield super sub.Sign Raul for way less and he is your lefthanded bat off the bench and your outfield sub. Remember, he did hit 20 HR and 80 RBI's while platooning and hitting in the 7 hole. It was actually a nice year for him.— UncleStosh
- When will Howard see a sports psychologist about his choking in the clutch?— Nezhy
- April is absolutely not realistic. Speaking from experience, he will be in an immobile cast for 2-4 weeks and then in a walking boot for another 3-4 weeks. One looses an inordinate amount of muscle mass through atrophy when immobilized. He will be walking just fine by April but his leg strength will not be what it was, and stretching and running will be difficult. I can't see him coming back before June or July at the earliest.— Sam Crow
- justacarpenter, that's pathetic! How can you not know the pitcher who hit a grand slam and a 3 run HR in the same game against the Expos? Who celebrated his new contract by getting so smashed the cops had to be called? Anybody who posts on this site should have to pass a quiz.— mjc1
- Ryan Howard seems like a good guy but the best possible outcome is that it's a career ending injury. Insurance pays off the contract so Ryan has his money and the Phillies can move forward unencumbered by the albatross of Ryan Howard's contract and big whiff in the clean up spot. Nobody needs a 5 year $125mil Dave Kingman wannabe.— wfd53
- I don't think he was ever on the juice. Look at his body now as compared to when he first broke in. He wouldn't get more toned and in better condition if he were off the juice. He would end up like Ron Solt, and just wither away in front of our eyes. Which has not happened.— HolidayinCambodia
- A) Probably will know by mid-late December B) I'm guessing end of May, agree April is way too optimistic C) To those who complain about Ryan choking in the clutch...... guess who led the NL (and possibily MLB) this season in homeruns that tied the game or put his team ahead, hmmmm could it be Mr Howard ????— mrdip
- we can only hope when he does return he's still capable of swinging and missing at the low outside pitch. it would be a shame if he lost that ability....it's what separates him from the other all-star caliber 1st basemen. godspeed ryan.
- this team is built for regular season success more than post season success as howard as has a .159 lifetime batting average against pitchers with a sub .350 era. there is a multidude of bad pitchers he destroys over 162 games so the phillies can run up a lot of wins but in the playoffs if they are up against a team with 3 good pitchers the teams biggest offensive threat is going to get about one or two big hits tops and that puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the team— ian
- It's already been almost 5 years waiting for him to play at his accustomed level.— burholme
- OH MY GOD!!! This is the dumbest article I've seen yet. Stop trying to bury one of the greatest Phillie players ever. What a jerk!!!
You said it. You're not a doctor but you sure as hell need one for that head injury you've got.— Phillyexp - I know Dr. Myerson's work well. I rehab these things for a living and I have attended many of his lectures given across the country. He is considered either #1 or #2 in his field by just about everyone. That being said Howard is a big lumbering man. He needs his legs for his power stroke. 6 months is the bare minimum. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 8 months atleast, but I doubt he'll miss more time than that unless he hits a roadblock or re-tears something. In any event, I'm glad to see that others are finally stating with stats what I've said about Howard for years. He pads his stats in Sept every year on AA and AAA callups and can't really do much against big time pitchers. We know who he is, we know what he's capable of. We shouldn't be surprised when he performs as he does in the playoffs or against "Ace" pitching. He is what he is.— Mark1npt
- Ryan Howard performed well with runners in scoring position, and was a top NL RBI leader. I think it is unrealistic for Phillies management to assume that he will perform at that level early in the season, or at all. Wouldn't it be prudent to figure out how to replace those RBIs? Hope is not a strategy.— jerseyshorefan
- Chase can start the year at first base, with Mayberry in left and a number of folks at second, some better defensively than Chase -- Valdez, Orr, Martinez, etc. It also would be an easier time for Chase's knee.— VicM
- They can survive until the All Star break without him. This team needs to have something to fight for in September so it might be a good thing if he comes back in July and the team has to play hard in September to secure a playoff spot.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- Until we hear from Howard's physician, we can only guess when he comes back. Remember, platelet enriched treatment was not a modality back "then". Look at Bartolo Colon's comeback from an arm that was basically flat lined. Platelet therapy has been quite amazing for speedy recovery. Kobe Bryant had this done to his ailing knee as well. We'll all see when he finally suits up and takes his first cuts.— drhoffman
- Comment removed.
- I keep wondering how a team that plays in a hitters friendly park can't hit. The lack of production by our lineup tells me that if changes are not made we will have more of the same next year. And people have the nerve to blame the pitching for not throwing shutouts every post season game. The cards and the brewers are scoring like crazy and the Phils pitchers held the Cards down includuling a one run effort in gm 5. And Howard's HR's are in steep decline as he enters the start of that ludicrous contract.— RobertB
- I heard some doctors on the radio give their opinions. I think he'll be back first week of May.— watsonmr
- Northwestern's quaterback Mike Persa tore his achilles in November, 2010. He's young (21) and atheletic at 6'1 and 195. His first game action was this October in a limited role. That's 11 months before he could play.— LarryB2
- How long would it take for him to get his batting eye back ? One swing and a miss and he is ready !— jeromie
- september call up.— oz
- Holiday, I know from experience, anabolics aren't magic. The variales are diet and workout load. I know plenty of juice heads who are chubby and have super human strength. I also know some of these guys who get more cut by changing up their workout style, getting off the juice and tailoring their diet. They appear stronger 30 lbs lighter but in reallity lose that "beast" strength.— shadow22
- Fact is we dont know it's just guesswork at this time. Im hoping Brown can play left and his talent shows. He did look out of sync in few appearances. Then Mayberry can play 1st his position at Stamford. The rotation would keep Phills competitive but must sign Madson or equal ability closer. Mayberry like Brown have talent to be impact players but nothing guaranteed particularly with Brown.— Don w
- RobertB: I think about that a lot too; I think that the park hurts us, as it is too easy for what used to be a deep fly ball to be a home run (Jroll?). Outfielders don’t have to play deep so what used to be line drive singles are line drive outs.— terrycindyian
- Wilhelm Von Humboldt I would love to squash you like a bug on a windshield.
— wearepsu00 - guess the roids finally caught up!— quadgator
- Ryan's a smart guy. I hope the time off gives him the opportunity to think about his game, make mental adjustments then put them into play when he comes back. As a power hitter who plays for average and singles-doubles-generated machine who places the ball perfectly to do what's needed. Think about it Howard, a screaming grounder or low liner through an infield hole and a bloopy fly into short center will help give the team the medium-ball that starts/continues run-scoring rallies. The homers will come, but you could hurt teams and help yours with so many of your other tools. And yes, move in a little closer. Think about it, Ryan. I am, and I think it could work.— bowritely
- He will be OUT on the LAST day of rehab.— NewMick314
- Utley should move to first with Polanco moving to second. Trade Brown and Kendrick to the Mets for their third baseman. Galvis replaces Rollins at short. Sign FA-OF Swisher.— garcia7
- Howard's numbers next year: .230 BA, 40 RBI, 12 HR. Certainly worth $25 million????????— 4thand10
- I should have added that he only gets 100 Ks in 242 ABs. The Phillies do not make the playoffs.— 4thand10
- Take your time. Don't give us an excuse by coming in too early!!— likhon
- Ryan, take all the time you need...in fact, consider retiring for the good of the team.— Repubrebirth
- There are too many posts on this thread for me to check to see if somebody else made this comment, but of course the surgeon didn't comment on Howard's condition and progressions - it would be a violation of medical ethics for him to discuss a patient's situation without a written release from the patient. And it's chicken $hi+ for Gelb to put that comment in the article without letting readers know that the doctor isn't permitted to comment.— judas_priest
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The Phillies Zone is the place for up-to-the-minute Phillies coverage from the Inquirer.
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