Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
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Skepticism for Howard's recovery time
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We'll begin with these caveats: We are not doctors. We have not reviewed Ryan Howard's medical charts. We have not spoken with the doctor who performed surgery for a torn Achilles because Mark Myerson denied comment.
So here is what we have to go on:
1. The Phillies have established a timetable of five to six months for Howard's recovery "until he can play at his accustomed level." Even then, Ruben Amaro Jr. is leaving the door open for something longer because, as he said, "A lot depends on how he recovers."
2. History shows that five to six months is optimistic for a recovery from an injury like this.
Again, Howard's injury could be less severe than others. Medicine may have improved significantly since some of these older injuries. Myerson is the leading foot and ankle specialist in the country. Howard has taken good care of his body in recent years.
For context, we did some extensive research of old newspaper clippings from the previous decade or so. There are few examples of baseball players — at least at the major-league level — suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon like Howard did. For the ones we found, we compared dates reported with game logs to ascertain when the injuries and returns occurred.
Here is what we found:
JOSE CONTRERAS
Ruptured Achilles on Aug. 9, 2008
Returned April 10, 2009
KEVIN FRANDSEN
Ruptured Achilles March 24, 2008
Returned for one game on Sept. 28, 2008
GABE KAPLER
Ruptured Achilles on Sept. 14, 2005
Returned to majors on June 17, 2006 after seven rehab games
EDUARDO PEREZ
Ruptured Achilles on May 9, 2004
Missed rest of 2004 season
CARLOS HERNANDEZ
Underwent surgery for ruptured Achilles on March 18, 1999
Missed entire 1999 season
GREG DOBBS
Ruptured Achilles second game of 2003 season
Missed rest of 2003 season
ROBERT PERSON
Ruptured Achilles in early February 2004
Never pitched again
OLMEDO SAENZ
Ruptured Achilles on Oct. 1, 2002
Played in minor league rehab games by end of June 2003 and then disappeared for personal reasons
***
The ideal scenario would be something like Frandsen, who missed almost six months on the dot. But he returned only for one at-bat in the final game of the season and reporters in San Francisco termed it a "quicker-than-expected recovery."
Every story about Contreras' eight-month recovery from the injury suggests it was nothing short of a surprise. On March 16, the Chicago Sun-Times wrote, "The usual recovery time for such a devastating injury is a year, and some in the organization feared it might be a career-ender for Contreras, 37."
Even then, Contreras had an 8.19 ERA after his first six starts and was sent to triple A in May. He came back in June and posted a 3.97 ERA for the remainder of the season.
***
This isn't to say Howard cannot make a similar quick recovery, something for which the Phillies have initially budgeted. Amaro said Howard's injury will not affect his offseason plans. But if John Mayberry Jr. is the favorite for left field and he must substitute at first base for a few months, that could create a hole.
Either way, there is reason for skepticism on the original Howard timeline. The Phillies hope he can return sometime in April — hey, maybe even opening day. But that could merely be optimism.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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- You still didn't answer the question. What does he have to do with Howard and Howard's injury? ...And can he play 1st? LOL!! What do you want...Person's stats?
— justacarpenter - What does Robert Person have to do with Howard's injury? Well, maybe the fact that he is listed in the article as an example of the expected rehabilitation timeframe. What's the point of looking at the rehabilitation time for the same injury? Well, if you average each of their recovery times, you have a reasonable estimate of when you can expect Howard back. The article lists that Person never pitched again. jaredphillyfan points out the inaccurate statement that he never pitched again. He ruptured his achilles in 2004 and pitched in the minors in 2005. LOL!! What do you want...someone to read the article to you? — Jamo
- I expect him to come back in mid July but his power output could very well be inadequate. Without power, what good is a player like Howard who can't run and cannot play any other position except 1B? Manufacturing runs is what this team HAS to be all about. I frankly doubt that the players the Phillies have can do this well enough. It's almost a shame to have the great SPs we have considering our pathetic offense.— James TL
- I don't see much in the examples that's enlightening one way or another. Since many of the injuries occurred early or mid-season, all we know is they missed the rest of the season. Would they have been back in 6 months if the season had still been ongoing? we don't know. Just because some probably equally uninformed reporter from the Sun Times thought this was fast does not mean it was. I have no clue and when I heard 6 months it sounded short to me too, but that is based on no real information, and I don't feel that has changed after reading this article. As a stats guy Murphy, you should know a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE when you see one...— Phils Phan 28
- OK, Gelb, not Murphy, comment still stands although now undermined by my own carelessness.— Phils Phan 28
- Recovery time comparisons should be made with guys of similar height/weight as Ryan. It's going to be longer for a big man.— n62
- Sept 1 2012. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.— Drew777
- The most recent example on the list is 2008?! Medical technology has changed even since then, let alone the older dates on the list. How about guys in the last year or 2 max. Sheesh— DennyP
- I just feel so bad this happened to Ryan. He is a great class guy. Never complains and plays hurt. I'm hoping his recovery time is short. Hope see you in Clearwater next year Ryan.— Grapost
- I ruptured my Achilles about 10 years ago. Although athletes have much better treatment facilities, I can't see how he can be ready in 6 months. My foot was immobilized for 3 months, after that I had no calf strength or flexibility for another 4-5 months while going through rehab. It was about a year before I was pain-free and trusted running on my injured ankle.
Fortunately, he doesn't rely on speed or explosion. After the year my ankle was stronger than the non-repaired achilles.— EagleNation999 - One of the forgotten guys who was having a career year in 2011 at AA was left handed hitting, left fielder Steve Susdorf. He was on the verge of qualifying for the Eastern League batting lead in late July when he suffered a season ending leg injury running at first base. Susdorf was hitting .386 for July before the injury. He is just the type of line drive, contact hitter with some pop who would fit nicely in the Phils lineup in left until Howard comes back and Mayberry can return to left. Lets hope he is making a full recovery and is given a shot in the major league spring training camp.— Dull
- Based on Frandsen's suspension - was it earlier this year or last? - and San Francisco Giants pedigree, perhaps he had some extra help in his "quicker-than-expected" recovery.— frankenslade
- I hope that if the Phils see Mayberry as the long term answer in left field that they put him there and not at first base. Particularly if the Phils are sincere, and not just venting, about Domonic Brown spending 2012 in AAA ball. There are other answers for first base on a fill-in basis, even a committee of Utley and Ross Gload's replacement, maybe Ben Francisco against a lefty. Mayberry needs work on his break on fly balls and I don't see how filling in for Howard will help that. I would put him in left and leave him there unless Brown surprises us all favorably in spring training.— Claudio Vernight
- Well at least you're not speculating, lol. The guy just had the surgery. They won't even know how long the recovery is until he start rehabbing. Contreras is irrelevant. He is a pitcher so he had to build back up arm strength after his Achilles was recovered. Not the same for a position player. Plus, anything from 5 or more years ago is also irrelevant. Surgery and rehab techniques are constantly advancing. There was a time when pretty much any knee surgery meant a guy was out at least 6 months...now some of these guys get their knees scoped and they are back in a few weeks.— JimG
