Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Since Hunter Pence has joined the Phillies lineup, slotted directly behind Howard, the slugger is hitting .409 (9 for 22) with a 1.595 OPS. An astounding eight of his nine hits are for extra bases.
Ergo, Pence is the greatest protection since William H. Macy in Air Force One.
"I've seen a lot more fastballs at least this series," Howard said Tuesday. "HP is getting it done. If they want to keep throwing me fastballs, I’m not going to get mad at them."
Unfortunately, it's probably not that simple. First of all, we're dealing with a sample size (five games, 88 pitches) that is far from significant. Still, let's compare:
PRE-PENCE
479 Four-seam fastballs
1,766 Total pitches
27.1%
POST-PENCE
27 Four-seam fastballs
88 Total pitches
30.7%
If Howard had that same 30.7 percent over his first 104 games, it would yield 63 more total fastballs seen during that span. Is that significant? Maybe?
A better explanation is probably lies in the fact Howard has been hitting off pitchers wearing Pirates and Rockies uniforms. Or the fact that Howard is a better second-half hitter. Always has been, always will be — apparently. In the first half, Howard has a career .867 OPS. In the second half, it jumps to 1.011. His slugging percentage, specifically, experiences almost a 100-point increase.
Does Pence help? Probably, in some unquantifiable way. But it's important to remember this: Last year, Howard had Jayson Werth, who finished ninth in MVP voting with a team-leading .921 OPS, hitting behind him. Howard's first half OPS last season was .859. In 2011, it was .828 — mostly the product of a 37-point drop in batting average.
He is seeing fewer fastballs than last season (47.5% to 45%). But just about every other factor in plate discipline mirrors 2010, which represented a steep drop off from 2009.
% swings at pitches outside the strike zone
2009: 27.3%
2010: 33.1%
2011: 32.3%
% swings at pitches inside the strike zone
2009: 75.5%
2010: 68.4%
2011: 70.4%
% swinging strikes
2009: 15.7%
2010: 14.6%
2011: 13.1%
Except, there is this: He is seeing 2.6 percent fewer pitches in the strike zone this season, but his contact rate on pitches outside the zone is nearly 10 points higher than last season. That is to blame for the decrease (so far) in power production. The more balls Howard swings at and makes contact out of the zone, the less likely he is to have an extra-base hit.
So is Howard's recent (brief) success because he's being more patient or because he's seeing better pitches to hit? Chicken or egg?
There has been plenty exhausted on the subject of protection in the past. We'll have more data at the end of the season to perform a similar study on Pence's effect. Let's see what happens this weekend against a pitching staff of the Giants' caliber and familiarity with Howard.
For now, chalk it up to another one of Howard's August and September revivals commencing.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Or it could be that since the team is hitting Howard doesn't feel like he needs to hit a home run every time up especially since he has Pence behind him. Maybe that makes him more patient at the plate.- @P Even: Not enough data, really.
TWO-SEAM FASTBALLS
PRE 155 / 1766 = 8.8%
POST 6 / 88 = 6.8%
CUTTERS
PRE 83 / 1766 = 4.7%
POST 0 / 88 = 0.0%
@Dadof24: It's only 530 words, so not even close.— mgelb - useless article. Do you expect us to believe that those numbers actually exist? Look at the irrelevance of them. Also what are Polanco's similar numbers, or Utley's. Nobody actually tracks these type of things. You made it up. Howard is hitting now specifically because Pence is hitting behind him. No other reason. Imbecile.— thingfish
- Every meaningful analysis I've ever seen says that Protection is a myth and there is no quantifiable impact. That being said, if you subscribe to the notion that your mental approach impacts hitting results, and Howard expects a Protection impact from HP, he will feel more comfortable. Therefore maybe he swings at fewer balls, doesn't press, hits better. Obviously 6 games out of a 162 games season are not a meaningful trend.
monty142 - don't pay attention to the advanced stats if you don't want to. I for one am glad that philly.com has a couple writers that understand and apply these stats in ways that help meunderstand what I've seen and what I'm likely to see in the future. If you just want to watch the games and read the back of a baseball card, that's your call and no one should have an issue with that. Just as you should have no issue with some of us wanting to look deeper than that.— Phils Phan 28 - thingfish - were you going for sarcasm? I hope? Of course they track these numbers, and much more. If you want those other player's number go look them up on Baseball Reference or one of the other sites that has it - this article was about Howard, not Utley or Polanco.— Phils Phan 28
- Phils Phan--no issue with anyone looking at them. If you're a numbers guy, have at it. Just saying, baseball used to be a whole lot simpler and, in some cases, more enjoyable without the stats being shoved down people's throats. I agree that if I don't feel the need to look at the numbers here, I don't have to. But try watching an ESPN broadcast without ridiculous stats and numbers plastered all over the screen and being spewed out by the analysts. It's just kind of out of control is all I'm saying. Not every swing needs to be psychoanalyzed to the degree it is now.— monty142
- Numbers...schmumbers. All that really matters is if Ryan BELIEVES he is getting better pitches to hit. There is undeniably a physical component to hitting, but don't overlook the mental aspects.— akh
- Howard's a very streaky hitter. It's too early to conclude that Pence has contributed to this 3 series sizzle. Maybe Howard's less pensive with a new bat in his lineup. More relaxed. Less pressure on him. Who knows. I'm not really into all this analysis.— retzlaff
- HOWARD IS A MONSTER RBI PRODUCER.YOU CAN SAY WHAT EVER YOU WANT, HE WILL BREAK THE 80 HR RECORD ONE OF THESE YEARS BOOK IT.— Phillies08
- ummm....what? Undo the caps lock button, it doesn't make your point any more or less relevant. Whatever your point may be — birdsfaninnc
- Maybe the mere presence of Pence being in the lineup is making him feel better, concentrating more. Beltran had a similar effect with the Giants the first few games although he wasn't hitting. I believed they avg. 2 or 3 more runs. Then they hit a skid. Utley had a similar effect when he was activated, although he wasn't hitting much at the beginning.
For the missinformed who said Beltran was a cancer. Those idiots need to be banned from posting here:
Beltran making teammates better
By Adam Berry / MLB.com | 08/03/11 8:33 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO -- As valuable as Carlos Beltran's presence in the middle of the lineup proved to be in Wednesday's 8-1 win over the D-backs, the Giants have seen their biggest Trade Deadline acquisition make an equally important impact in the clubhouse.
Beltran has instantly stepped into a leadership role with the Giants, providing guidance to several of his new teammates -- specifically Andres Torres and Pablo Sandoval -- in the batting cage, on the field and in the dugout...— EL Zorro 
Comment removed.- @monty142 those numbers on ESPN drive me crazy too but for a different reason - they seem wrong. Like the probability of winning - yesterday in the top of the first it shows Colorado as 51% likely to win. I guess the home team gets an edge in their model, but it fails to take into account that the matchup is Halladay vs Jason Hammel. No one in their right mind thought the Rockies were favorites to win. Also, the scroll show the Phillies as X% likely to score at least 1 run in an inning because there is a man on third and two outs - never mind that Roy Halladay was the hitter so those averages are not applicable. So the numbers overload in my mind is a problem when the numbers are being presented just for the sake of having a number, not because they are truly meaningful.— Phils Phan 28
- El Zorro, agree that the comments that Beltran was a cancer and we should not trade were not based in reality. But quoting a feel good article from mlb.com? The leagues official website is not exactly known for hard hitting, critical journalism. Not sure that's the source I would want to cite.— Phils Phan 28
- @Phils Phan--totally agree. I mean, really? % of winning in the first inning? Can't the game just be played? I do get your point--numbers like that should not even be presented because they're a total joke. The numbers Gelb is putting up here I suppose have some significance--but even in this case, we're dealing with a 5-game sample. Can't really prove anything with 5 games, especially since this is the time of year Howard traditionally heats up, regardless of who's hitting 5. To me, the bottom line is, he's hitting, the Phils are 5-0 with Pence. Whether that's directly related, who knows. Guess we'll see how it all plays out.— monty142
