Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Since Hunter Pence has joined the Phillies lineup, slotted directly behind Howard, the slugger is hitting .409 (9 for 22) with a 1.595 OPS. An astounding eight of his nine hits are for extra bases.
Ergo, Pence is the greatest protection since William H. Macy in Air Force One.
"I've seen a lot more fastballs at least this series," Howard said Tuesday. "HP is getting it done. If they want to keep throwing me fastballs, I’m not going to get mad at them."
Unfortunately, it's probably not that simple. First of all, we're dealing with a sample size (five games, 88 pitches) that is far from significant. Still, let's compare:
PRE-PENCE
479 Four-seam fastballs
1,766 Total pitches
27.1%
POST-PENCE
27 Four-seam fastballs
88 Total pitches
30.7%
If Howard had that same 30.7 percent over his first 104 games, it would yield 63 more total fastballs seen during that span. Is that significant? Maybe?
A better explanation is probably lies in the fact Howard has been hitting off pitchers wearing Pirates and Rockies uniforms. Or the fact that Howard is a better second-half hitter. Always has been, always will be — apparently. In the first half, Howard has a career .867 OPS. In the second half, it jumps to 1.011. His slugging percentage, specifically, experiences almost a 100-point increase.
Does Pence help? Probably, in some unquantifiable way. But it's important to remember this: Last year, Howard had Jayson Werth, who finished ninth in MVP voting with a team-leading .921 OPS, hitting behind him. Howard's first half OPS last season was .859. In 2011, it was .828 — mostly the product of a 37-point drop in batting average.
He is seeing fewer fastballs than last season (47.5% to 45%). But just about every other factor in plate discipline mirrors 2010, which represented a steep drop off from 2009.
% swings at pitches outside the strike zone
2009: 27.3%
2010: 33.1%
2011: 32.3%
% swings at pitches inside the strike zone
2009: 75.5%
2010: 68.4%
2011: 70.4%
% swinging strikes
2009: 15.7%
2010: 14.6%
2011: 13.1%
Except, there is this: He is seeing 2.6 percent fewer pitches in the strike zone this season, but his contact rate on pitches outside the zone is nearly 10 points higher than last season. That is to blame for the decrease (so far) in power production. The more balls Howard swings at and makes contact out of the zone, the less likely he is to have an extra-base hit.
So is Howard's recent (brief) success because he's being more patient or because he's seeing better pitches to hit? Chicken or egg?
There has been plenty exhausted on the subject of protection in the past. We'll have more data at the end of the season to perform a similar study on Pence's effect. Let's see what happens this weekend against a pitching staff of the Giants' caliber and familiarity with Howard.
For now, chalk it up to another one of Howard's August and September revivals commencing.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Doesn't matter why. If Howard thinks its Pence, then it's Pence. Perception is reality. Baseball is such a mental game.— Scorekeeper- You've go to be kidding me - 27% vs. 30%?— n62
- I don't think there's much to it. Howard always gets really hot in August and September. Every year, like clockwork. Then he cools off in October. Let's hope the October part changes!— lefty1117
- I agree with lefty1117. If you don't know that Howard always gets hot in August thru October, you haven't been watching enough of the Phils. This man is worth every dollar. RBIs are ALL that matter.— king_of_lincolnfield
- Career, he's actually been better in July than August. Except this year -- his July numbers were his lowest ever I think. And he doesn't "cool off" in October as a lot of people are fond of throwing out there. His post-season stats are about the same as his August/September stats. The big thing with Howard is that he's significantly better in the second half and that's been consistent throughout his career.
I think Pence may be having more of a mental effect at this point. And, as others have noted, the rest of the lineup is also finally there. Whatever the cause, I'll take the W's.— s - This comment has been deleted.— warbiscuit
Comment removed.- This comment has been deleted.— warbiscuit
- Cain is the SF pitcher Howard has the most problems with. RH is one of the few Phillies who has okay numbers against Lincecum. He's done very well against Sanchez. He's also done very well against Bumgarner but he's only faced him a few times so it's hard to tell there. Bumgarner and Sanchez start the series so RH has a chance of staying hot in my opinion. — s
- Comment removed.
- Nice work on the analysis.— snj7195
- I'm not much for this kiind of detail. I love the fact that he's hitting the bejesus outta the ball right now. I LOVE seeing him operate against pitching that is not on the "plus" level. Unfortunately, tonight starts a series where EVERYBODY he will face is AT that "plus" level. We gotta hope that the post-season will not have the Giants going against us. It would be a six game toss-up series with somebody winning four one or two run games.....probably them I'm afraid.— TBear
- If Ryan hits the excellent pitching of the Giants, then I'm a believer that he is back. Phils need to win 3 of 4 in SF.— Pap
- Howard is seeing more fastballs with Pence behind him, but it's a moot point if you don't do something with it...Howard is currently still head on the ball, not trying to do too much, and he's nailing so many balls hard where it's pitched...Again, when he hits them to center or left, you know good things will come...Having a good lineup, is good for the team...but when Howard goes on a tear, it doesn't matter...As he got that "homer off a lefty" off his back, next is nailing one of those "elite" starters....he shouldn't have to have so much to prove.....but nationally, his swagger has flattened out some....Let's hope he continues to swat some into oblivion and continue to take back his crown as premiere slugger in the league.— bearsfriend
- If Ryan Howard hits well in San Francisco, his detractors will say that the Giants pitching staff is not as good as their ERA might suggest or that the Giants pitchers are having an off-year.— Freedom Fries
