Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
SAN FRANCISCO -- Of the 17 pitches Ryan Howard saw from three Colorado Rockies pitchers Wednesday, eight were fastballs. He hit a two-run double on a Jason Hammel slider and a two-run homer off a Rex Brothers fastball.
Since Hunter Pence has joined the Phillies lineup, slotted directly behind Howard, the slugger is hitting .409 (9 for 22) with a 1.595 OPS. An astounding eight of his nine hits are for extra bases.
Ergo, Pence is the greatest protection since William H. Macy in Air Force One.
"I've seen a lot more fastballs at least this series," Howard said Tuesday. "HP is getting it done. If they want to keep throwing me fastballs, I’m not going to get mad at them."
Unfortunately, it's probably not that simple. First of all, we're dealing with a sample size (five games, 88 pitches) that is far from significant. Still, let's compare:
PRE-PENCE
479 Four-seam fastballs
1,766 Total pitches
27.1%
POST-PENCE
27 Four-seam fastballs
88 Total pitches
30.7%
If Howard had that same 30.7 percent over his first 104 games, it would yield 63 more total fastballs seen during that span. Is that significant? Maybe?
A better explanation is probably lies in the fact Howard has been hitting off pitchers wearing Pirates and Rockies uniforms. Or the fact that Howard is a better second-half hitter. Always has been, always will be — apparently. In the first half, Howard has a career .867 OPS. In the second half, it jumps to 1.011. His slugging percentage, specifically, experiences almost a 100-point increase.
Does Pence help? Probably, in some unquantifiable way. But it's important to remember this: Last year, Howard had Jayson Werth, who finished ninth in MVP voting with a team-leading .921 OPS, hitting behind him. Howard's first half OPS last season was .859. In 2011, it was .828 — mostly the product of a 37-point drop in batting average.
He is seeing fewer fastballs than last season (47.5% to 45%). But just about every other factor in plate discipline mirrors 2010, which represented a steep drop off from 2009.
% swings at pitches outside the strike zone
2009: 27.3%
2010: 33.1%
2011: 32.3%
% swings at pitches inside the strike zone
2009: 75.5%
2010: 68.4%
2011: 70.4%
% swinging strikes
2009: 15.7%
2010: 14.6%
2011: 13.1%
Except, there is this: He is seeing 2.6 percent fewer pitches in the strike zone this season, but his contact rate on pitches outside the zone is nearly 10 points higher than last season. That is to blame for the decrease (so far) in power production. The more balls Howard swings at and makes contact out of the zone, the less likely he is to have an extra-base hit.
So is Howard's recent (brief) success because he's being more patient or because he's seeing better pitches to hit? Chicken or egg?
There has been plenty exhausted on the subject of protection in the past. We'll have more data at the end of the season to perform a similar study on Pence's effect. Let's see what happens this weekend against a pitching staff of the Giants' caliber and familiarity with Howard.
For now, chalk it up to another one of Howard's August and September revivals commencing.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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If Howard can keep it going against the Giants' pitching then I will be a believer!— micconway- Pence is exactly the Pete Rose type player this team needed as they were too laid back and needed someone to get them excited about baseball every night. The pitches well, every little bit helps...........Go Phils! — Voytas
- C'mon, I like Pence and thought it was a great trade. But calling him a Pete Rose type player? No. — mjc1
- If the Phillies can hit SF pitching, I'll be happy.— Bruno Sammartino
- He's saw more hittable fastballs... Ryan needs to be more patient and not swing at off speed pitches early in the count!— dankil13
- What is the difference before and after HP for fastballs other than 4 seam?— P Even
- great in-depth analysis of the numbers. thanks for the article.— chadp1234
- MG - you are out Murphing Murphy - nice job, but I agree with some of the other posters, if RHoward keeps this up, then I might become a believer. I think also what is missed is the increase in output coming from Ibanez. That too could be a factor, and I am not sure that his output B4 Pence is different from his output After the additon of Pence. Likely needs some more time to be sure.— Dadof24
- Ryan senses there is backup help in the fifth hole so that helps him relax and not feel like he's the only one that needs to drive in the runs. I think we'll see this patience result in more walks. More walks will reveal how much Ryan is relaxing and trusting the fifth hole.— greenflyer
- Stop already....We know it Should help but it is a bit premature to say it is or it isn't......The numbers are too insignifacant to say anything....— nuggett
- It could just be that he feels good at the plate right now.— screwluse
- So the old adage of make the pitcher throw a strike and hit a strike still stands, huh?....that's what your article points out. Watch the ball still works, too...huh? It's scary to think of just how great RHoward could be, if he just followed that simple rule. 3.4% more fastballs post Pence isn't the reason for the uptick in performance this week. If he were getting 34% more fastballs, maybe. Maybe he's just watching the ball better and putting better swings on better pitches. I'll give him credit if he rakes Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez like that this weekend. He has a great history of stacking up massive year end numbers against AA and AAA callups in the 2nd half of each season. Let's see him hit the great SF pitchers......— Mark1npt
- I agree, when watching Howard, it is frustrating to see him swing at bad pitches. But keep in mind that there are not many people in world who are capable of recognizing where a pitch is going to go and when it is going to get there in a fraction of a second. Howard can put a great swing on a ball, but I just don't think he is blessed with a great eye. I'm sure he'd love to have the eye of Albert Pujols, but, hey, who wouldn't? — altoonaaslan
- Remember when baseball statistics consisted of HR, RBI, average, ERA? Reading these things is like studying advanced calculus. W and L--those are the ones that matter. And the Phils are 5-0 with Pence (pretty damn good without him also) and cruising. All that matters, not these percentages.— monty142
- Comparing percentages to you equates to advanced calculus? So does reading Berenstein Bears equate to reading Shakespeare as well? Are you serious? I love posts that criticize critical thinking that their brain is incapable of following.
You should know by now that Murphy's columns are well thought out statisical analyses of player performance. By your consensus of wins/losses are the only thing that matters, are you going to say that Hamels was a worse pitcher last year than kendrick was his rookie year? If you can't follow statistical analysis, stop reading his columns.— birdsfaninnc
