Posted: Friday, July 31, 2009, 6:10 PM | 39 comments |
 

Rotation decisons loom
options
 

It’s a good problem to have. That’s the baseball cliché about too much pitching depth, and it suddenly applies to the Phillies after they acquired Cliff Lee on Wednesday. But it is a problem nonetheless—what will the Phils do about their overcrowded rotation?

 Having improved the staff, the team must now decide which two of Pedro Martinez, J.A. Happ or Jamie Moyer belongs in the rotation, which of the three would be most likely to help in the bullpen, and whether to retain Rodrigo Lopez for a relief role.

Lee, the 2008 American League Cy Young Award winner, represents an enormous upgrade the top of a rotation that spent much of the first half of this season pitching inconsistently. Through the first few months of this season, Phils were always a good-hitting, smooth fielding team that hoped to overcome thin pitching. Cole Hamels was rusty, Brett Myers allowed home run after home run before injuring his hip, Joe Blanton was a constant victim of one bad inning, and Jamie Moyer finally seemed old.
           
Lately, though, Hamels has flashed that old World Series MVP swagger, Blanton has dominated and Moyer has looked like the guy who hemmed and hawed his way to 16 wins last season. And J.A. Happ, better than anyone expected since being promoted to the rotation in May, might find himself in the bullpen again.
           
The depth began to increase when the Phillies signed Pedro Martinez during the All-Star break. It was a low-risk, high reward move intended to replace Rodrigo Lopez in the rotation, and insure against the possibility that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. would not be able to add a pitcher before yesterday’s trade deadline.
           
But Amaro did add a pitcher, and now he and the coaching staff must choose whether to exclude Happ, Martinez or Moyer from the rotation. Despite Happ’s performance as a starter, the team appears to view him as the best reliever of the three, and the injury-plagued relief corps needs help.
           
The day the Phils acquired Lee, Amaro said that he did not sign Martinez to be a reliever, though both parties were open to the possibility. Martinez’s contract includes a games-finished clause, according to a baseball source with knowledge of the deal. That clause indicates that the bullpen is not out of the question for him, though that role may or may not be plausible for a 37-year-old with a thick medical file.
           
Pitching coach Rich Dubee has said many times that he does not see Moyer as a reliever. That would seem to leave Happ as the likely candidate.
           
But there is another way to see the situation. The overworked and unhealthy bullpen would suffer if bother Moyer and Martinez, neither of whom is likely to regularly pitch deep into games, were both in the rotation. Plus, why take Happ, one of the Phils’ best starters in recent months, out a role in which he has thrived?
          
The rotation is set through Wednesday, when Happ is scheduled to start. Beyond that, the Phillies face important decisions, albeit ones they are glad to make.
Posted by Andy Martino @ 6:10 PM  Permalink | 39 comments
39
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:27 PM, 07/31/2009
    "The day the Phils acquired Halladay, Amaro said that he did not sign Martinez to be a reliever".......A Freudian slip on your part, Andy? Still a little disappointed that we ended up with Lee, perhaps? Just joking! Really though, it will be interesting to see what the decision will be. I mean, on the face of it, Happ is the most flexible of the three and has had success out of the pen this year (and last). However, one of the big reasons Charlie wanted a "horse" was that he would be able to go deep in games and throw innings, thereby reducing the strain on the bullpen. Looking at it in that light, why would you want to remove from the rotation the guy who has been going deeper in games than Moyer has, and almost unquestionably deeper than Pedro will be able to?
    — bski
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:38 PM, 07/31/2009
    To answer the question, I would rather see Happ remain in the rotation and have the 5th spot come down to either Moyer or Martinez. I know, I know, if the Phils think Martinez should be starting what do we do with Moyer? Moyer really is the sticking point, especially considering the $$$$ and the fact that he's signed through next season, whereas Martinez is just a cheap, just-in-case flier for thr remainder of this season. That's exactly why, if the Phils think that Martinez should be starting, Happ will be heading to the bullpen.
    — bski
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:39 PM, 07/31/2009
    It makes zero sense to me to put Happ in the bullpen when he has been the most effective and consistent pitcher on the staff to date. It is important to note all the guys we have on the disabled list and how ineffective most of our bullpen has been all year. This is because our starting pitching wasn't pitching deep into games in the beginning of the year and bullpen has been overworked. So why would the Phils put Happ in the bullpen instead of Pedro? Pedro is good for 5 maybe 6 innings every time he goes out there, whereas Happ is usually good for at the very least 6 and as much as 8 innings. Since the bullpen has been overworked so much, wouldn't it make sense to keep Happ in the rotation in order to help the bullpen. The addition of Cliff Lee helps the bullpen out too but it pretty much becomes a wash innings wise if you replace Happ with Pedro. You already have Moyer in the rotation (who is not a viable bullpen pitcher but probably is the most deserving of that designation) and you know that the bullpen is going to pitch at least 3 innings every time he goes out there, so why add Pedro to that rotation when he's going to do the same. The Lee trade was a godsend for this team because when you team him up with Happ, Hamels, and Blanton you have four guys capable of giving your bullpen a break. A rotation with one guy that pitches 5 to 6 innings is better than a rotation with 2 guys that pitch 5 to 6 innings. I know this is getting long but I really feel strongly on this and I think moving Happ to the bullpen would be a huge mistake.
    — robm0202
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:42 PM, 07/31/2009
    Also remember that we are 'only' paying Pedro 900k this season so it wouldn't really hurt us if we let him go or put him in the bullpen. It still would have been a good investment because we didn't risk much. Another question I have for the front office is why build in incentives for pitching appearances (aka relief outings) if you aren't going to think about putting him in the bullpen? Isn't a clause like that especially built for the exact scenario they have right now?
    — robm0202
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:45 PM, 07/31/2009
    Amaro's confession of signing Martinez to be a starter is proof to me that he had every intention of trading Happ et al for Halladay and was only bailed out by the stupidity of Ricciardi and the generosity of the Cleveland Indians' GM.
    — Erich H
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:58 PM, 07/31/2009
    This is such a no-brainer: You don't take ANYBODY out of the rotation who is being successful... unless you are replacing him with a guaranteed upgrade. That takes care of one guy, when you remove Lopez for Lee. (Lopez was a fill-in anyway.) After that, unless and until one of the Three Amigos (Blanton, Moyer, Happ) blows up, Pedro sits. He is an experiment, a roll of the dice, a pure last resort. Does he sit in the bullpen and find a role as a reliever? Possibly. (That Moyer/Martinez tag team sounded interesting...) But you do NOT, I repeat NOT yank anybody in the rotation for Pedro Martinez. At least not at this time. As you were.
    — bobby
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:05 PM, 07/31/2009
    amen erich
    — barrywil
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:10 PM, 07/31/2009
    No, Amaro didn't intend to trade Happ and, instead, did everything he could to avoid trading Happ. Martinez was signed as a back-up plan in case they couldn't trade for a starter. Halladay and Lee were not even on the market when Martinez was signed. Isn't this whole decision premature until Martinez proves more at the minor league level? He's pitched only 1 and 1/3 innings in a live game since last year. Let him make two starts in the minors and see what he's got. He may not even be up to par to promote to the majors anyway. We can cross this bridge when we get to it. So far, only the obvious move of dropping Lopez from the rotation needs to be made.
    — JimG
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:14 PM, 07/31/2009
    It's not easy to bounce from the pen to the Starting line-up, back to the pen. Happ was developed to be a starter. He has proven so far that he can pitch as well as Cole. I'm not a sports psychologist, but if Happ ends up in the pen again, what is going to think? I know what I'd think: ...Ruben was ready to trade me..... Charlie doesn't care about my one chance to get the Rookie of the Year Award, nor does he care about my long-term development as a starter.....Why the *%$# did Ruben even sign Pedro?...This suuuucks!!! Why don't they just trade me? I'm obviously expendable.....Who needs this #%@*?!!! I'm calling my agent!!!
    — Erich H
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:17 PM, 07/31/2009
    P.S. I hope I didn't give J.A. any ideas..........
    — Erich H
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:21 PM, 07/31/2009
    If you think Charlie is calling the shots for the rotation, you are sorely mistaken. If he was, then Pedro would not be on this team at any point and Happ being moved to the bullpen wouldn't even be an issue or a possibility
    — robm0202
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:31 PM, 07/31/2009
    Wouldn't it behoove the team and the arms in the rotation to go with six guys until the end of the season? They would keep the arms fresh for the playoff run and since they are probably still taxed after last year's long run, come October, the extra day off every week for the rest of the season could only do them good.
    — seaonasdad
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:36 PM, 07/31/2009
    Why is everyone against starting Pedro and assuming he won't go more then 6? He could be fantastic. Give him a start or two and see how he does. The phils average 5.39 runs per game, we can afford a starter to give up a couple runs and still win the game. cut Brunlett and go with Lee/Cole/Blanton/Happ/Pedro/Moyer. Have the most well rested starters in the league.
    — usonis
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:39 PM, 07/31/2009
    robm, I never said that Happ would end up in the bullpen. The beauty of Ruben as a GM can be seen in his choice of words. He called himself a "steward" of the team..priceless..He said that he signed Pedro to be a starter, but Pedro's agent had incentive clauses for innings pitched in relief. Why was that? My theory is that Charlie will have Pedro "stretch his arm out" little by little from the pen while Happ stays in the starting rotation til the end of August. Pedro will not be pitching in LV for a month. Anything can happen between now and the time Pedro is ready to start his first game. Charlie has to cover "his guys'" backs. Right now Pedro is NOT one of his guys, but Ruben's. If you think that GMs command managers how and when to use their available players, then you probably think Ruben is forcing Charlie to play Bruntlett. Pedro's contract proves he knew it was possible that he could end up in the pen.
    — Erich H
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:42 PM, 07/31/2009
    I didn't mean you personally, I meant for anyone who thinks that it is Charlie's choice for Pedro's role, because it isn't. If Ruben wants him to start, then he will start.
    — robm0202


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