Roster prediction (Version 2.0)
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Roster prediction (Version 2.0)
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Exactly two weeks remain in Florida for the Phillies and there are just as many, if not more, questions than when pitchers and catchers reported.
In our latest roster prediction, some of those unknowns are reflected. Read Version 1.0 of the roster here.
CATCHERS (2)
Carlos Ruiz
Brian Schneider
Another light week for Ruiz, who has killed the ball when he's played (7 for 15 with two extra-base hits, two walks and no strikeouts). He's caught for parts of six games.
INFIELDERS (6)
Ty Wigginton
Freddy Galvis
Placido Polanco
Jimmy Rollins
Jim Thome
Michael Martinez
Dun dun dun. Chase Utley's name does not appear here. Why? We still think there's a decent chance of him starting at second base on April 5 as Ruben Amaro Jr. has guaranteed. But until Utley actually takes the field, our prediction has him sidelined. Galvis has won over the major-league coaching staff with his spring performance. He'll play in the majors this season only if regular at-bats are there. If not, he's in triple A.
OUTFIELDERS (5)
John Mayberry Jr.
Shane Victorino
Hunter Pence
Laynce Nix
Juan Pierre
Again, the nod goes to Pierre over Scott Podsednik simply because of flexibility. Pierre can opt out of his contract March 30 if he's not added to the roster. Podsednik cannot leave the organization until June 1. This can obviously change if 12 days from now the Phillies believe Podsednik is that much better. Stat to watch: Podsednik has stolen five bases this spring without being caught. Pierre is only 2 for 4 in steals.
STARTERS (5)
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Vance Worley
Joe Blanton
How many teams would take Kyle Kendrick as their fourth starter right now?
RELIEVERS (7)
Jonathan Papelbon
Antonio Bastardo
Chad Qualls
Mike Stutes
Kyle Kendrick
David Herndon
Jose Contreras
We're moving Contreras into the picture based upon his encouraging week of action. He pitched in two minor-league games and then made his Grapefruit League debut Sunday. Yes, he was hit hard. But he's on the mound, and with 13 days left in Florida, there is time for Contreras to leave camp with a decent amount of work under his belt. We'll keep Herndon on the roster as a 12th pitcher because the Phillies must be conservative with Contreras' usage. He won't pitch on back-to-back days — at least at the beginning of the season.
DISABLED LIST (2)
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
We explained Utley above. If he does begin the season on the DL, it's not required he miss the first 15 days of the season. It can be back dated to March 26 at the earliest. He could be reinstated April 10 if that were the case.
FIRST FOUR OUT
Scott Podsednik
Brian Sanches
Kevin Frandsen
Raul Valdes
It's possible, if Utley were to be sidelined, the Phillies could opt for 11 pitchers and an extra infielder. That could help guys like Frandsen or Pete Orr. Hector Luna has had a decent spring, but he can't play shortstop and has little time at second base.
Check back next Monday for the latest predictions.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Montañez, with a.448 BA, 6 R, 6 RBI, 1.107 OPS plus stellar defense, has the best camp so far, IMO, and gets not mention but Kevin (4 errors .172 BA) Fransend does? I wonder if these guys are watching the game or spending too much time tweeting each other.— EL Zorro- Montañez, with a .448 BA, 6 R, 6 RBI, 1.107 OPS plus stellar defense, has the best camp so far, IMO, and gets not mention but Kevin (4 errors .172 BA) Fransend does? I wonder if these guys are watching the game or spending too much time tweeting each other.— EL Zorro
- Good call Zorro. Qualls and Herndon going north? Juan Pierre over Posednik?
Time for version 3.0.— 24sDad - I don't care a lick about flexibility - i have eyes and it looks to me like pierre is shot. not only does posednik have to make this team, i think he'll be the primary left fielder to start the season.— CosmoK
- Zorro, agreed Montanez has had a great Spring, but he's battling two established players in Pods and Pierre, so his odds are long. For those who don't know, Montanez was drafted 3rd overall in 2000, 12 spots before Utley. Also in 2008 he won the Eastern League triple crown despite missing a month when he was called up to the majors.
I think Frandsen gets a mention because the need is greater in the infield. Of course, in either case, roster decisions are (or at least should be) based on much more than 50 Spring at bats, and Frandsen has hit a little better in both AAA and the majors.— schmenkman 
Hector Luna has also earned at least consideration if not a spot but he and Montanez are both going to lose out because of the guaranteed contracts to others. The Phils insistence on not creating dead money hurts in these situations. Since no one is perfect there should be times where they cut bait and admit a mistake. Alas in B.B. as in life in general we tend expect those things we spend money on to work and often lose more hanging on to hope things will work out. Danny Baez is a perfect example. He hurt the team more buy blocking better in house options than anything he ever did on the field. This years possible Baez blockers may include Nix, Contreas, Matinez, Orr, Frandsen and Pierre. While Galvis ,Luna, Montanez, Posednik and several bull pen options will be in Allentown in spite good springs.— DUDESKINS
Comment removed.- I don't think Nix is blocking anyone. Yea he has not shown much this and has not played much but that doesn't mean but he can't provide a little power in the lineup against rh pitchers something we are lacking in. He is also pretty decent in lf, a whole lot better then Pierre is imo. We have a lot of moving parts and who we see in April probably won't be who we see in August. We have a lot of options for the pen, including a guy nobody has mentioned because he was hurt in DeFratus. Deikman, Aumont and Savery are also possibles. If they don't make the team in the spring we will see them at some point if they keep improving. I think Deikman makes the team and believe Aumont needs more time due to his control To me the biggest mistake made if Chase doesn't start the season is to keep MM over Galvis. He doesn't act like a big showboat and has showed he belongs for his defense alone. I hope Montanez keeps hitting like he has he could see action at some point but the outfield is the least of our problems unless Vic or Pence gets hurt— pattymac3
- I would cut Pierre right now. Podsednik is outplaying him. I hope Montañez doesn't have a out clause similar to the ones Pods and Pierre. He could be that RH bat off the bench they'll need when both Wigginton and Mayberry Jr are starting. He could also be an insurance in case one of the OF goes down. Pods in particular, who had some issues the last two seasons.
— EL Zorro - Can't even think about this knowing Utley is in such bad shape right now w/o even playing a single game. Doesn't get tougher than that; he could be done.— PhillySubsMac
- I agree with Dudeskins. In their current situation, the Phillies do not have the "luxury" (pun intended) to bring one player north who hasn't earned his way. Diekman, Podsednik, Montanez need to be here. Contreras, Herndon, Qualls, Martinez, Nix, Pierre should not be given a free pass for any other reason than if they've earned it. My God, with the way they've been going about business since last October, could this team ever stink this year!— dasher
- One interesting name that has begun to surface for teams needing a "flexable" infielder with big league experience...Miguel Tejada. Granted, he is 37, but can play 3B, SS, and 2B. In CBP, he may even hit some homers. Don't be surprised if he is picked up. Teams are grabbing ex MLB's (Xavier Nady was picked up on a minor league deal yesterday) and brought in to see if they have anything left in the tank. Miggy just may.— drhoffman
- Comment removed.
- Home Run Herndon over Automatic Out Savery or Strike Three Diekman? Come on! But in the end it just might be the Heritage Guy Valdes.— Dull
- Nix, Piere, Wigginton, Galvis at 2nd, no 2nd lefthander in the pen, Utley career over, Howard foot to be amputated, Halladay getting rocked and velocity down, everyone hits the Bastardo...Please get this spring training over before I jump off a bridge— JuanSamuel4prez
- I hear ya, Dull. Sad but true.— dasher
- Diekman is a lock.
Pods too.— WFChamps
