Roster prediction (Version 1.0)
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Roster prediction (Version 1.0)
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
CLEARWATER, Fla. — We are nine days into Grapefruit League play, meaning some judgments can be rendered. They may not be accurate judgments, but they are judgments. That's about the only way to bide time until meaningful baseball in April.
So with the Phillies headed to Bradenton for a matinee against Pittsburgh, we present our first prediction of the opening day roster. We'll do this every Monday until April.
CATCHERS (2)
Carlos Ruiz
Brian Schneider
Ruiz has been doing a lot of sitting on the bench. Not a bad idea early in the spring.
INFIELDERS (6)
Ty Wigginton
Chase Utley
Placido Polanco
Jimmy Rollins
Jim Thome
Michael Martinez
Martinez plays shortstop better than any of the other utility candidates. The Phillies want defense from their utility spot, so he is the guy. If there is a prolonged absence by any infielder, Freddy Galvis would be the replacement.
OUTFIELDERS (5)
John Mayberry Jr.
Shane Victorino
Hunter Pence
Laynce Nix
Juan Pierre
Scott Podsednik has been more impressive than Pierre in Grapefruit League action, but Podsednik's out clause isn't until June 1. Pierre can leave if he's not on the roster March 31. Thus, Pierre earns the nod while Podsednik waits in triple A. It allows the Phillies to make an evaluation over a longer period of time. That can change, especially if Peirre has more days like Sunday, which drew the ire of Charlie Manuel.
STARTERS (5)
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Vance Worley
Joe Blanton
Yes, the Phillies want to trade Blanton, but the right deal would require the trading team to take on a lot of money. We don't see that happening until Blanton demonstrates value in regular-season games. His early spring outings have been nothing but encouraging, though.
RELIEVERS (7)
Jonathan Papelbon
Antonio Bastardo
Chad Qualls
Mike Stutes
Kyle Kendrick
David Herndon
Phillippe Aumont
Really struggled with the final name on this list. No one has distinguished themselves in the first few weeks of games. The Phillies could go with 11 pitchers, but there really isn't a 14th position player who has dazzled either. The guess here is the team carries 12 pitchers most of the season because when Jose Contreras returns, they will be conservative with his workload. Aumont has the highest ceiling and has not done anything to hurt his chances this spring. He's the choice for now, but this is a fluid situation.
DISABLED LIST (2)
Ryan Howard
Jose Contreras
The Phillies think Contreras can be ready for opening day. But why push it?
LAST FOUR OUT
Scott Podsednik
Kevin Frandsen
Brian Sanches
Jake Diekman
Check back next Monday for the latest predictions.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Schnied bashers need to get a life. He is an good catcher. Kratz @31 is a solid AAA player and a fairly good catcher. How about Worley this afternoon??????????? Awesome job.— NewMick314- I see Diekman making it over Aumont. Diekman has been lights out as a lefty specialist, which we really need. Aumont still has considerable control issues he needs to work out in AAA. And what did happen to Savery? To me it seemed like Savery or Diekman would have a shot starting spring training but I haven't heard much about Savery lately. I thought Diekman always had the edge.
As for Kratz over Schneider, that decision was made when they re-signed Schneider. Kratz would have been fine as a backup in my opinion and offered a better bat.
I'm also not sold on Martinez making the roster but I admit his SS ability and his ability to place CF gives him an edge.
I agree with Phightin on Elarton. They guy has looked pretty damn good. But I think he has a minor league contract so there's no harm in him getting work as a starter in AAA. He seems like a guy who could step in as a starter in a worst case scenario. Yeah, he's old and hasn't showed it before but he's commanded 4 pitches pretty well in spring training.— s - Surprised to see that "Aumont has not done anything to hurt his chances". I certainly don't see every spring game, but the two times I have seen him pitch he has been erratic at best. He is imposing on the mound and I hope he can harness his control, because he is the type of pitcher that other teams seem to have many of (young hard throwing relievers).
Does this list imply Wigginton or Thome would be gone when Howard returns? I know that could be a long way off, but unless things change between now and then (and they always do of course) it could be interesting to see how they open that spot.— Phils Phan 28 - So Aumont has been playing pro ball for about 5 years now and a few months of AAA is all of the sudden going to refine his control? Where do you guys get this stuff from?— guyguy4
- 4 years. He just turned 23 a little over 2 months ago. A good part of his minor league career was spent as a starter. So the idea of him having some things to learn yet as a reliever isn't all that insane. Another year relieving at AAA with the right coaching could make all the difference in the world. If he shows improvement maybe he's a late season call-up. He definitely needs to work on his control. — s
- after top 3 starting pitchers, rest of the roster is mediocre at best, with at least 9 players questionable legit major leagues altogther: Schneider, Nix, Thome, Martinez, Qualls, Herndon, Aumont, Wigginton, Pierre..pretty pathetic for the highest budget in the league..amazing what garbage cluless rube has put together with over $170 mil+ budget and trading away all top prospects— warbiscuit
- Obviously don't understand the importance of a top-notch defensive catcher who knows how to call a game, huh kelprod2?— VicM
- vicm --yeah it would help if Phils had one --unfortunately neither Ruiz or Schneider can ever throw anyone else (they're both below major league avg at runners throw out), Schneider can't hit over .172 and Ruiz is barely adequate no.8 hitter, and Ruiz can;t even call a game as well as Schneider -- Phils rank below avg at this position and for some reason dumb fans think this is some kind of strength— warbiscuit
- Like some of the comments--Big "D" and Savery are a must and 1 or both will be there this season. As far as the Schneider comment--check with the pitchers they love the guy! Would I want more offense--YES but what goes on behind the plate is more important and the pitchers love the guy and give him lots of credit for calling games. Kratz--where have you been he is not even the #3 consideration the "G" man is!— dmslbw
- Schneider cannot hit, he cannot catch, he cannot run and he cannot throw. Besides that, he is a good backup for Ruiz.— kelprod2
- Amazing how anybody could say that Ruiz doesn't call a good game when Roy Halladay, the best MLB pitcher sings his praises as the best game calling catcher in baseball...@warbiscuit— wgureck
- "Martinez plays shortstop better than any of the other utility candidates."
You can't be serious. By most accounts, Galvis is already a better defensive shortstop than Rollins, so you are in effect saying, Martinez is better Rollins and Galvis. Do you actually watch the games?
Why didn't you go on to say, "he can also play left and center field"? I guess the plays he butchered out there were even obvious to you.— TripNines - With the wonders of modern medicine and knee enrichment, it stuns and baffles me that Chase Utley, 30, can't deal with his knee in a more 2012 way. Tendonitis, advanced tendonitis, meniscal issues, etc are all available and work on on farts like me, why he suffers so is way beyond me...— BirdinParadise
