Room to be creative with bullpen
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Room to be creative with bullpen
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Earlier in the week, we discussed the bigger picture effect of the Cliff Lee signing on the Phillies franchise. On the field, beyond the simple fact that the Phillies now have the finest rotation in the majors, Lee's signing has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the roster.
In the last few decades, bullpens have naturally expanded as starters pitch fewer innings and, in the National League, settled upon seven relievers as the standard. Middle relievers have become commodities on the open market -- this off-season, teams have handed out an astounding 11 multi-year contracts to relievers.
But with the current construction of the Phillies' staff, the bullpen is de-emphasized. The guys over at The Good Phight did a quick and dirty analysis based on 2010 innings averages that concluded Phillies starting pitchers could be expected to average 6.87 innings per start in 2011. Again, that assumes health and maintaining stamina from 2010.
In 2010, the Phillies' bullpen already logged a league-low 421 innings. The addition of Lee and assuming a fifth starter that can pitch to the league average of IP/S (5.91) would yield a bullpen expectation of 344 1/3 innings in 2011.
Now, let's assume that those assumptions are a bit extreme. Why? Consider this: No bullpen has pitched that few innings in a non-strike-shortened season since 1988 when the Mets (341 2/3 IP) and Rangers (333 1/3) both did it.
The last Phillies bullpen to pitch fewer than 344 1/3 innings in the bullpen? That would be the 1959 Phillies, who had 54 complete games from their starters -- and relievers threw 342 2/3 innings.
So let's expand our range even further. We'll settle at 400 IP by relievers -- almost 60 innings above the rough estimate. The last team's bullpen to pitch fewer than 400 innings? The 2005 Cardinals, whose relievers threw 397 2/3 innings. And since 2000, only two other bullpens pitched fewer than 400 innings (2003 Yankees and 2002 Diamondbacks).
What's special about those teams? Well they each won at least 98 games in those seasons. Both the Cardinals and Yankees broke the 100-win barrier.
So yes, obviously we are talking about something special here. Having four aces allows the Phillies to be creative with their bullpen construction.
Under no circumstances should the Phillies break camp with more than 11 pitchers on the staff. Given the numbers we discussed, you could probably make a coherent argument that 11 is still too many, but for various reasons, we'll stick with 11 rather than 10.
There are four relievers under contract and locks for 2011 already. They are Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Jose Contreras and Danys Baez. That's $21.25 million in 2011 dollars committed to the bullpen.
They should not sign anyone else to fill the final two spots.
"We're still trying to figure it out," Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock said earlier in the week.
Sure, Dennys Reyes at $1.1 million would have been a very low-risk signing and the Phillies were prepared to make it even after acquiring Lee.
So they're left looking at the current lefthanded options on the market. There's J.C. Romero, whom the Phillies know very well. But he made $4.5 million in 2010 and unless he is willing to take Reyes money, it probably is not prudent to re-sign him.
There's Hideki Okajima, a reliable setup man before 2010 with Boston. But he will likely cost more than $1.1 million and a source said the Phillies have yet to have any discussions with his agent. The same could be said for Brian Fuentes, who is likely looking for at least $4 million per season in a multi-year deal.
There's Arthur Rhodes, who is coming off an All-Star season and is also a known commodity inside the Phillies' front office. But he too could be costly.
So who would take $1.1 million in 2011? Well, there's Will Ohman, Randy Flores, Joe Beimel and Ron Mahay.
And given those names, I wonder how much would really be lost should the Phillies decide to stay internal for the lefthanded quest and let Antonio Bastardo, Dan Meyer, Mike Zagurski and Sergio Escalona fight for the job this spring.
Remember the Lee effect. The bullpen will be asked to pitch even fewer innings this season than last. On many nights, the starting pitcher could finish seven innings. That would leave the eighth for Madson and the ninth for Lidge. The opportunities for a lefthanded reliever to matchup and face a lefty are lessened.
Then, consider this: The Phillies have approximately one reliever under contract for 2012 -- Contreras. Lidge has an option that is likely to be declined (he could be back in 2012, but not for $12.5 million), and Madson and Baez are free agents.
The bullpen in 2012 will have to be younger by necessity. It would behoove the Phillies to attempt to slowly work one or two of their younger arms they like -- Bastardo, David Herndon, Justin De Fratus, Scott Mathieson, Michael Stutes and Michael Schwimer -- into low-leverage bullpen roles in 2011 with an eye toward 2012.
For reasons we've explained above, the soft underbelly of the Phillies' bullpen will really be marginalized in 2011. It's a good chance to fill those spots with younger pitchers.
Plenty of times, Ruben Amaro Jr. has said, "We're not going to have a lefty just to have a lefty." If his starting staff is going to go deep into games most nights, he has Contreras, Madson and Lidge to pitch the later innings. They can retire lefties too.
The bullpen was Amaro's top priority at the beginning of the off-season. He solved many depth issues by signing a starter. And with an extraordinary rotation in 2011, the Phillies should not follow the traditional roster guidelines that govern pitching staffs.
Matt, nice insight in this article. I say give the internal options a chance, and make a move mid-season if the bullpen is an issue.
I think Green Squirel is right on. Give the young guys a chance. You can never tell when you might discover a gem. With the old guys you already know what they can and cannot do.- Listen, while the odds are very good that Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Lee will pitch more than 200 innings (if they keep Blanton and move Kendrick to long relief, you could have five pitchers who can), the team is without one important pitcher in the mix--a left-handed specialist. The Braves proved last year that you can get lucky with rookies (that dunn and venters), it is an unlikely scenario, especially since Bastardo is so inexperienced (he was fast-tracked to the bullpen--doesn't have many innings) and Zagurski has failed rather consistently. If you are content with spending 1.1 million on Reyes, what is wrong spending 2 million on Romero in a single season deal. It's silly to protest over a nominal increase in the payroll of less than the fraction of a percentage.
Let me give you a little hint, when you have four big ticket starters, the pressure on the bullpen only increases. It's one thing to putz away a 5 inning mess left by that Kendrick, what are people going to say when Bastardo blows a seven inning gem by Halladay or Lee. It's bad business. Leave it to the low rent teams to putz around over one million dollars. Tell them to pay up--it's the cost of doing business, sorry.— tgray83 - Bastardo is not going to blow a 7 inning gem. Madson would. The point is that on average, these guys are going to go 7 innings. Leaving one inning for madson, one for lidge. If any of these guys are pitching a gem,they are going to go at least 7. The only way they come out early is a bad game, or a tight game and they need a pinch hitter. Even then, I don't think Charlie pulls a starter having a great game.— birdsfaninnc
- We'll see how well this Madson does when you give him Romero's innings against lefties in high leverage situations. What an ace caliber pitcher removes from the equation are the middle-relief opportunities once filled by a Durbin. You still have roughly the equivalent amount of save situations, especially with this lineup, which the Phillies have done nothing to improve. — tgray83
Mr. Gelb: Good piece of reporting and analysis that goes beyond the conventional wisdom. Remember, though, that Madson -- like any set-up man -- won't be available every game. On the days or nights when he's not, lefty/righty match-ups will become an issue. It'd be nice to have a lefty who can throw sliders past left-handed hitters in late-inning pressure situations, something Bastardo, Escalona, Zagurski et al haven't proven they can do consistently. Can they learn to? At this point, nobody knows.- With hardly anyone locked in for 2012, Gelb is right - they need to find out who can do what. If it comes to it, shuffling guys in and out all year is a fine way to figure it out. Especially with this rotation, those lower on the ladder bullpen guys have to be able to pitch an inning a week after they last pitched, and be productive. If not, they'll be sent away and the next guy up will get the shot. With the exception of Mathieson, (who may need to go through "conditional waivers" or whatever to get optioned-though I think that's waived now since he was up and down last season), all those guys can come up and go down a half dozen or more times during the year if need be.— B in DC
- One of the better articles on the Phitin's pitchers I've sen this offseason. We absolutely need to know what he have among the youngsters. If we find we have too significant a hole there by June-July, there will be some mid-season bargains out there.— gophilly!
- Usually I'm in disagreement with Matt Geib. This time I must tip my cap to well written , well thought out solutions concerning our pitching staff.
What better way to bring promising young pitchers along, than under the watchful
eyes of the coaches on a major league level. You could use the productive time to turn relievers into major league starters eventually by using the Big 4 starters to
take the weight from the rookies shoulders.
Again, good column , Matt
If the Big 4 work out as planned, there is a dynasty in the making.
Again, good job Matt !— phineas - This is all fine and well if the offense produces better than last season. If it doesn't and the team finds itself trailing in a number of games (even if the nights starter has done a very good to excellent job), the starter isn't going to see the 7th inning since they'll be removed for a PH. For all this "reduced bullpen innings" to come to fruition, the offense has to put the team in the lead, or at least tied, come the defensive 7th. If not, it doesn't matter how strong the starters are because the soft underbelly of the bullpen will see innings.— DPL
- Nice article Matt, but if pigs could fly...... Charlie (I love him as a mgr) but he doesn't know how to use a BP and sometimes looks as though he uses a pitcher just to use him. He burns more arms in useless situations and innings than Carters has pills. Just because you have a 7th, 8th and 9th inning guy in the pen, doesn't mean you HAVE to use them every single game. Contreras, Madson and Lidge can't pitch in all 162 games. They can't even reasonably be expected to pitch in 1/3 of them. Yes, it's nice that our rotation consists of innings eaters for the most part but we will still need more than 3 reliable RPs than those we have now under contract. And they'd better be reasonably good or they'll throw away a sure win in the short time they are in there. Trust me, as a former starting pitcher, you never want to work hard for 7 or 8 innings and come out of a game with a lead, then have your BP blow it for you and the rest of the team. It gets old real fast......the RPs left on the market are very marginal at best and probably shouldn't even still be in MLB.....but as long as a lefty can breathe they'll have a job......— Mark1npt
soft underbelly? Matt, that's no way to talk about Zagurski- With the Phils creating one of the greatest starting rotations in the history of baseball, and with the odds favoring a solid set-up / closing year from various combinations of Madson, Contreras and Lidge, the Phils have the luxury of being able to stock their bullpen with young arms and bring their relievers along in a controlled fashion. The season will be long and there should be plenty of time to give the likes of Bastardo, Zagurki, Escalona, Mathieson and DeFratus the shot in the bigs they deserve. The money saved on acquiring extra bullpen arms could be used to sign the leadoff hitter and/or right-handed power hitter the Phils still need.
Dan Meyer. Remeber that name because he will the Phillies left hannded specialist. I am suprised you did not mention him Matt.- I think what is really needed is a left handed closer. Two pitch Lidge is a liability each game. If he had 2 more pitches we wouldn't be having this conversation. Get a lefty closer who has the guts to go after hitters, and not miss the corners to the point of walking the bases loaded. They should keep Kendrick as long relief and a 5th starter if someone gets hurt. Why Baez is even on the team is a mystery to me he's like an anchor around the bullpens neck. He could be the Adam Eaton of the bullpen. Surely we can find someone who is lefthanded, throws in the mid nineties, and can handle the pressure. Bastardo would be fine as a setup man and some day maybe even a closer but he is not there yet. Gotta be an answer to this problem.— Wally 24
