Replenishing the farm with money
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Replenishing the farm with money
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
This won't happen overnight because you do not replace Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Jason Knapp, Michael Taylor, Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Villar, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana and Josh Zeid that soon.
That's 14 players, almost every one of them ranked in the Phillies' top 10 prospects upon their removal from the organization over the past two years. They, of course, have spawned what could be the greatest starting rotation by ERA in 19 years and a new right fielder.
The price was steep.
But maybe Monday was the latest lesson in the maturation of a front office still adapting in its quest to keep the machine churning. Certainly you remember the day Dec. 16, 2009, and not just because the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. They flipped Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three prospects, none of which look particularly inspiring at this point.
"If we had just acquired Roy and not moved Lee, we would have been in position to have lost seven of the best 10 prospects in our organization," Ruben Amaro Jr. said that day. "That is not the way you do business in baseball."
Now, they hope an increase in draft spending — and not a move like the Lee trade — can offset the lost talent.
On deadline day, the Phillies agreed to terms with their first-round pick (Larry Greene), second-round pick (Roman Quinn), fifth-round pick (Mitch Walding), 17th-round pick (Jesen Dygestile-Therrien), 27th-round pick (Braden Shull) and 49th-round pick (Jonathan Knight). In each instance, they awarded a bonus above the recommended slot by Major League Baseball.
There were more chances taken by Marti Wolever and his people in 2011. A larger budget allows for that. The Phillies spent slightly more than $5 million to sign 30 of their 51 picks. They inked 13 of their top 15 picks.
That money will likely put the Phillies only in the middle of the pack in draft spending. Part of that is because they do not possess the high picks that require massive bonuses. The Washington Nationals, for example, dolled out $16 million to sign their first four draft picks.
But 2011 represents an increase in spending for the Phillies. In 2009, according to Baseball America, only the Mets spent fewer dollars on draft signings than the Phillies ($3.2 million). Last season, the Phillies were 27th in draft spending at $3.9 million. For a team with an ever-expanding payroll at the major-league level, it simply was not as high of a priority. Typically, the Phillies will draft high-ceiling, high-risk players they fancy — and can easily sign.
It's an inane process, this draft slotting system. The Greene and Quinn deals had been near-finished for a few days, but not announced until Monday because the commissioner's office wants to keep bonuses down. In reality, no team adheres to it, and that's why a flurry of big-money signings weren't announced until minutes before (or after) the midnight deadline. It costs players days as a professional in the minors and trivializes the whole thing.
A lot of the extra Phillies money came in bonuses for two prep shortstops. Walding, a fifth-rounder from Stockton, Calif., signed for $800,000, according to Baseball America. He was committed to the University of Oregon. The slot recommended $129,900. Tyler Greene, an 11th-rounder from West Boca Raton, Fla., signed for $375,000 to eschew a commitment to the University of Georgia. The slot is approximately $100,000.
Shull, dubbed Iowa's best prep prospect by Baseball America, is a 6-foot-6 left-hander who throws in the low 90s. The Phillies invited him to Busch Stadium in June to throw a bullpen session. He was committed to Kansas State until the Phillies bought him away with a hefty bonus for a 27th-rounder.
They went about $150,000 above slot to sign Larry Greene and $200,000 above to sign Quinn, to be expected for the high picks. That's mostly an indictment of the slotting system itself.
But how you win the draft is spending strategically. Sure, the Phillies would have loved to sign all of their picks, but throwing around that type of money on a bunch of 18, 19 and 20 year olds is irresponsible. They targeted a few picks they particularly liked and believed could be swayed by money.
The last time the Phillies spent big in the draft was 2008, when bonuses totaled $6.7 million. Of that, $2.4 million went to the top two picks. Anthony Hewitt ($1.4 million) is an unequivocal bust. Zach Collier ($1 million) is still an unknown after wrist surgery a year ago.
They spent $1.2 million to sign three over-slot pitchers named Vance Worley, Jon Pettibone and Trevor May. And a total of $1.9 million was dedicated to sign three over-slot players in Anthony Gose, Jason Knapp and Jarred Cosart.
That's how you replenish the system — and create new trade chips.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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I mite be the only one still not calling Anthony Hewitt an unequivocal bust. Hes a true bust in the making but when drafted, he was said to need 4-5 years and hes only in year 4. Showing some signs of power and crazy speed on the bases. I got U A Hewitt!!! Im still with U dude.
— FMBNG- FMBnG......now I have to read you here along with PhuturePhillies!!!!!! Oye ve! — Romus
- Nice article Matt. You actually did a good job summarizing a ridiculously convoluted process in a short, easy reading article.— samtheman
- "That's 14 players, almost every one of them ranked in the Phillies' top 10 prospects upon their removal from the organization over the past two years." Well not all of those guys were really top 10 talents. Some of them only moved into the top 10 because others were traded. So these rankings are all relative to who is left in the system. "They flipped Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three prospects, none of which look particularly inspiring at this point." Actually, Aumont has pitched well since they moved him back to the bullpen and he's doing pretty good up in AAA, still has some command issues but 27 Ks in 16 innings pitched and a 2.76 ERA. Also, JC Ramirez has pitched decent in AA and has a good, live arm with good stuff. So 2 of those 3 guys are expected to be major-league players at some point here. "Typically, the Phillies will draft high-ceiling, high-risk players they fancy — and can easily sign." Actually, when Wade was GM, the Phils went more conservative and drafted easily signable players. The last few years, they've drafted plenty of kids in later rounds who were thought to be difficult to sign. They haven't signed a lot of them though whereas this year they seemed to sign many more of them than usual.
— JimG - This article reads a bit too much like cheerleading. Yes, the Phillies spent more this year than they did last year. A good chunk of the difference is accounted for with the extra second round pick. What's dissappointing is that if they actually spent at 2008 levels, they could have easily added a few more players - perhaps Ryan Garvey, one of the catchers, and another arm.
Unfortunately, it seems like the Phils still restrict themselves with their budget. I'm not saying that I want to see them overspend like many teams do, but Ryan Garvey said he wasn't even offered a contract. Keenan Walker, redrafted this year by the White Sox in the supplemental round, said the same thing last year.
The Phillies have talented scouts. Although this year was a step in the right direction, it would be nice to see more money put towards the draft, closer to the 2008 levels.— jfar86 - Granted prospects can be used as trade-chips at some future point, but when it comes to the young Garvey---he had only two positions projectable at the MLB level---1st base and LF---and the system is loaded with those two positions---to begin with the lateset being Larry Greene at first base. But understand your point----why not make an offer, any offer! — Romus
- you mention the 3 prospects the Phils received from Seattle in the Lee trade as uninspiring. How are the guys the Phillies traded to get the Aces doing?— palmyra21
- So we traded 14 prospects (drafted over a 3-4 year period) and received 3 back for Lee. I love the strategy, draft high ceiling guys late, overpay a couple hundred grand to sign them, let them work their way up for a year or two, and trade them for both proven aces and a needed 5 hole hitter. Works for me! I also find it hard to believe that the Phils would expend a draft pick on a guy without making an attempt to sign him, especially when their mentality with these guys is to overpay the slot.— tommy2times
- Pretty good insight on the draft process which doesn't get enough coverage. As to the 'top' prospects dealt, I wouldn't sweat too many of them:
Carlos Carrasco (went 0-5, 9.13 ERA in July. Currently on DL [elbow])
Jason Donald (bench player at best)
Lou Marson (bench player at best)
Jason Knapp (recently had a 2nd major shoulder surgery)
Michael Taylor (still in minors, putting up numbers)
Travis d'Arnaud (still in minors, putting up numbers)
Kyle Drabek (got demoted, 6.55 ERA in 11 minor league starts)
Anthony Gose (still in minors, career .259 hitter)
Jonathan Villar (hitting .236 at Double-A)
J.A. Happ (demoted to minors with a 4-14 record and 6.26 ERA)
Jonathan Singleton (blocked at 1st base by Howard anyway)
Jarred Cosart (years from MLB ready)
Domingo Santana (19 yrs old, long way to go at the plate)
Josh Zeid (5.91 ERA at Double-A this year)— stikolaboloni - Good article here, but the one I was excited about was Ryan Garvey, and he's USC bound...the true test now is the developmental stage, and life away from mom and dad...work hard and become a chip.— bearsfriend
- @FMBNG...Hewitt may look the part with the George Foster physique and the srm, and speed....but you're being delusional...He has 136 k's and just 13 walks aiding his .224 avg. He's still stuck in low A ball where everybody and their brother can steal a base...looks like Chris Young one minute, Chris Rock the next...for that high a draft pick, sorry...he's a bust.— bearsfriend
- @stickaboloni.......that list is still very premature...and lifetime minor league averages mean zilch...it's where and how they get to a levell...Gose will be an impact player,same with D'arnaud...Taylor should be up with A's, but they'd rather go with dogs like Matsui,Crisp,and DeJesus and remain a joke.....Singleton also will make it...but all in all...we've gotten what we need!— bearsfriend
- Agreed pretty much except for Gose. I just don't see the appeal there but then again I'm not a pro scout. You have to get on base to steal, and 4 yrs in the minors mostly at Single-A with so-so numbers means a little more than zilch. Michael Bourn (that's the trendy comparison) hit at every level in the minors and moved on after 1 year at Single-A
- One of sports' greatest challenges is rating future ability of baseball prospects. Mr. Wolever and the scouting staff do a great job. Having prospects for trade bait is extremely valuable to an organization. Of course in Philly, with our abundance of negative aholes always on the prowl for points to criticize, will always have a wise aasss comment to make. I believe most of them live in Mommy's basement and have never sweated in any serious athletic competition. The internet has given them a social life......— stoneman
- Matt - You're writing off Philipe Aumont a bit too soon. He has been very impressive at 2 levels this year, throws hard, misses bats, and could be the closer of the future. We will probably see him in Philadelphia firsthand in September.— tburt17
