Question the length, not the money
MILWAUKEE — Baseball's general managers convene in this charming Midwest city beginning Monday and Ruben Amaro Jr. will walk into the Pfister Hotel as the only one in the room boasting a substantial prize early in this winter's free agency period.
Question the length, not the money
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
MILWAUKEE — Baseball's general managers convene in this charming Midwest city beginning Monday and Ruben Amaro Jr. will walk into the Pfister Hotel as the only one in the room boasting a substantial prize early in this winter's free agency period.
The Phillies struck early, setting the market with a four-year $50 million deal for Jonathan Papelbon, and that is Amaro's style. Some will like his shrewdness. Others will question the economics. But the Phillies probably didn't do much harm to the bottom line by pouncing on Papelbon.
Amaro made his intention clear: He wanted a veteran closer. The value in that position can be (and has been) debated. To attain one of the top closers on the market, the GM was likely told he must extend an offer of at least four years. The money? That's almost meaningless at this point.
One of the questions Amaro must answer is, "What effect does this deal have on the rest of his wish list?" His response will probably sound something like, "That remains to be seen." It's a good smoke screen.
Amaro has not given a hint of what his mandated budget for 2012 is, but that is moot. The Phillies have money. They have never been more popular in Philadelphia. By the end of the 2012 season, they will have sold out 285 straight regular-season games. And they are raising ticket prices for some seats.
They will spend said money until they deem necessary and it's hard to see finances standing in the way of any reasonable deal this winter. If they go over the luxury tax limit, so be it. That's the reality of a franchise that spends more than any other National League club. They can overwhelm the best closer on the market with the largest contract ever awarded to a reliever. Is it prudent? Time will decide. No one will call the philosophy of the Yankee dynasty of the late 90s/early 2000s as fiscally conservative. Are the Phillies the Yankees? Not quite. But why not spend the money when it's there?
Brad Lidge earned $12.5 million per season as sometimes closer from 2009-11. Papelbon will earn the same. This is a deal made for the next two years and not the two years after that. We've said that quite often about Amaro's trades in recent years and eventually those moves catch up. (Maybe.) Then again, the stated goal for 2012 is to win a World Series. Even after Lidge's three mostly ineffective seasons, there is still sentiment to bring him back as a middle reliever because he recorded a few outs late in 2011 and dropped to his knees one October night three years ago. If Papelbon is on the mound to clinch a championship, the contract is forever viewed favorable no matter what.
The risk is in the length, and the most criticism should be for that. The Phillies were negotiating a four-year deal with Ryan Madson and when they discovered Papelbon would cost only $6 million more (plus possibly a draft pick, but maybe not), they went with track record over familiarity.
Still, the fact that the Phillies were talking about four-year deals with two relievers is remarkable. Firstly, they've never guaranteed that much to a reliever in the team's history. Heck, only one pitcher — Cliff Lee — has the distinction of a contract of more than three years.
Secondly, only 10 relievers have signed deals of four years or more in the last decade. And history shows that guaranteeing that kind of commitment to the game's most volatile position usually does not result in the expected output.
Here, in reverse chronological order, are the 10 instances:
Francisco Cordero — 4 years, $46 million with CIN (2008-11, age 33-36)
This is one of the few examples in which spending frivolously on a closer did not backfire. Then again, Cincinnati failed to win a postseason game in the duration of Cordero's contract, but it's hard to argue he was at fault. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 141 ERA+ while averaging 70 innings per season.
Joe Nathan — 4 years, $47 million with MIN (2008-11, age 33-36)
He was an elite closer at the start of this contract extension. A 1.33 ERA and 39 saves in 2008 and a 2.10 ERA and 47 saves in 2009. Then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2010 season and a chunk of 2011. Even in 2009, at his best, he blew a save in Game 2 of the American League division series against the Yankees, who swept.
Scott Linebrink — 4 years, $19 million with CWS (2008-11, age 31-34)
He finished out the deal in Atlanta as a mop-up man last season. Needing to simply rid themselves of his salary, the White Sox dealt him to the Braves for a double-A pitcher. With Chicago as a setup man, he posted a 4.28 ERA in three seasons and never pitched more than 57 1/3 innings in a season after averaging 80 innings per season from 2003-07.
Justin Speier — 4 years, $18 million with LAA (2007-10, age 33-36)
Spent the final season of his contract out of professional baseball. Lived up to the deal in the first year with a 2.88 ERA and 36 hits in 50 innings but it ballooned to over 5.00 in 2008 and 2009. In August 2009, the Angels released Speier and ate the rest of his contract.
B.J. Ryan — 5 years, $47 million with TOR (2006-10, age 30-34)
The example used for the perils of a large deal to a reliever. Ryan was stellar in his first year, posting one of the best seasons for a closer ever. Then he pitched five games in 2007, allowed seven runs, and needed Tommy John surgery in May. He saved 32 games in 2008 to a 2.95 ERA but experienced a drop in velocity and was never fully healthy. He lost the closer's job in 2009, was released with $15 million left on his contract, and never pitched again.
Billy Wagner — 4 years, $43 million with NYM (2006-09, age 34-37)
The Phillies were in on Wagner, but then-general manager Pat Gillick stated he would not go beyond three years for a closer. Wagner had a 2.40 ERA for the Mets in the first three seasons of the deal but needed Tommy John surgery at the end of 2008. He pitched in 15 2/3 innings in 2009 — 13 2/3 of them with Boston.
Steve Karsay — 4 years, $22.25 million with NYY (2002-05, age 30-33)
He had a history of injury problems and one season into the four-year deal, he required shoulder surgery that kept him out all of 2003. He was never the same after that, pitching only 6 2/3 innings in 2004 and 21 2/3 innings (with a 7.06 ERA) in 2005.
Jason Isringhausen — 4 years, $27 million with STL (2002-05, age 29-32)
He stayed healthy for the most part, and that was key. Isringhausen saved 140 games in the four seasons while posting a 2.50 ERA. His best season came in 2004 when St. Louis won the National League. He averaged almost a strikeout per inning. It went mostly downhill after this deal, once he started to age.
Matt Mantei — 4 years, $22 million with ARI (2001-04, age 27-30)
This was a weird one, especially since Mantei battled an arm injury in 2000. The Diamondbacks apparently didn't care and still signed him to a four-year deal. He blew out his arm in April 2001 and underwent Tommy John surgery. In all, he pitched just 99 1/3 innings during the span of the contract.
Mariano Rivera — 4 years, $40 million with NYY (2001-04, age 31-34)
The greatest ever.
***
If Papelbon pitches 268 2/3 innings — his total from the previous four seasons in Boston — over the length of the contract, the Phillies will pay him $62,034.74 per out. (That's quite an assumption given that Papelbon will be older.) This is what will cause some to wonder if the money could be better spent on a position that will have a greater effect on the outcome of the next 648 or so Phillies games. Others will say those outs for which Papelbon is paid handsomely are the toughest of the game.
At its core, this deal cuts between the whole closer debate; something argued by more than a few baseball lifers. Did the Phillies overpay for Jonathan Papelbon? Probably. Is it too early to rush to judgment on the deal? Of course. Just about every contract signed this winter will come with the label "overpaid."
For now, think about this: The Phillies can spend lavishly on a top free agent and it's only the beginning of their winter.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Comment removed.- Wrong ballpark? Here's dimensions...overall comparable except the Green Monster, but that is at least partially overcome for righty pitcher vs righty hitter.
FENWAY PARK
OUTFIELD DIMENSIONS
Left Field: 310'
Left-Center Field: 379'
Center Field: 390'
Deep Center Field: 420'
Deep Right Field: 380'
Right Field : 302'
HEIGHT OF OUTFIELD WALLS
Left Field: 37'
Center Field: 17'
Right Field: 3-5'
CBP
OUTFIELD DIMENSIONS
Left Field: 329'
Left-Center Field: 374'
"The Angle": 409'-387'-385'
Center Field: 401'
Deep Right Field: 369'
Right field: 330'
HEIGHT OF OUTFIELD WALLS
Left Field: 10'
"The Angle": 19'-13"
Center Field: 6'
Right Field: 13' 
This team has a few more signings in them. I'm going to guess Cuddyer, a SS not named Reyes or Rollins and a pitcher for the bullpen.— ESFjellin- Many good points Murph, but the real issue is which brand of Lite will be stocked in the clubhouse for this Saux refugee.— NewMick314
- Awfully weird that we've heard not a peep from Madson or his camp since they leaked the "almost done" deal. No word on trips to see other teams, no word on missing his teammates in Philly, no word on anger at Amaro, no word on anyother team interested in him....something weird going on here. Makes you wonder if the Phils found something on his physical that they didn't like and backed off. That is the only reason for Amaro's explanation that they never had a deal, and the total silence regarding Madson signing elsewhere. The silence is deafening, but by Amaro taking a bullett for Madson on the explanation, they don't need to reveal to anyone that he's damaged goods and that byes Madson some time. A big favor for Madson. I'll bet it comes out later, that's the way it went down.— Mark1npt
- Madsen reportedly got an offer from the Marlins..but it is curious that he's been silent, especially since someone uttered 'handskae deal' along the way.— spittooncj
- Way to give the Phillies players a chance. Maybe you should change the name to the Philadelphia Outsiders.— rolenfan
- the writer makes no sense. The total payout to Papelbon is certainly a function of the number of years. The signing was stupid as evidenced by the 10 examples above. The Cardinals just won a WS with a revolving door of closers. The position just doesn't merit this type of committment.— JodyMac
- The Saber crowd loves to point to the 2011 Cardinals as an example of why a traditional closer isn't important. The reality is somewhere in the middle. The 2011 Cardinals are more likely outliers than the norm. What about the teams that won with high priced closers that you conveniently forget (e.g. Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels?). The fact is while the contract was probably a 1 year long and $2 or $3 M per season too much, he is one of the best players talent wise. Bastardo simply isn't ready to be "the guy" on a WS contender. If you were the GM, no way you go into the season with your job on the line and Bastardo as your closer. It sounds good in an office cubicle but no GM in the real world is going to put a WS contender into the hands of a young kid making minimum wage that had almost a good full season. Remember, Bastardo faded down the stretch and Stutes even more so. You need a good mix. — DennyP
- The saber crowd is composed of officious idiots, inventing ever more meaningless measures signifying absolutely nothing. It is always better to have players who know their role (if they are able to perform it). Quite agree, at the moment, about both Bastardo and Stutes, but do want them in the pen, especially since there is every likelihood the will be stronger in their second years. I look at JP as something of a compromise, since I would have preferred RM, but expect this will prove a good deal in the end. — BEMiller
- Amaro has completely abandoned the "build from within" philosphy that was so successful. He must be sharing notes with the "all in" Eagles. You see how their dream team is working out.— JodyMac
- spitoon...I'm in south FL, maybe I missed it, but I haven't even heard of the Marlins offering Madson a contract. And believe me, word gets around the league pretty quick when something goes down like it did with Madson. Other teams know how to read situations like these and act accordingly. They know that the Phils didn't re-sign Madson for a good reason. This is basically the same situation and response from Amaro as when he tried to sign Dennys Reyes for the bp only to later say they couldn't come to a deal on years....it came out later of course that Reyes failed his physical, but not until after the Red Sox had signed him. No GM will thwart a player from making a living by disclosing that he's damaged goods beforehand. Remember Freddy Garcia from the White Sox? It was up to us to do his physical and find his arm problem and we didn't. Shame on us. Well, maybe this time our Docs got it right?— Mark1npt
- I've been reading enough articles in the Philadelphia area papers to come to the conclusion that you can't believe a word Amaro or Charlie say so maybe they told Madson they were close to a deal but lied about it like they've done before.— rolenfan
- They could afford to do this because of the young, inexpensive arms they have in the system. (Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Savery, Aumont, & Defratus) During the duration of the deal all of those guys will be making pennies.— FABER
- One of those names is not like the others.
One of those names doesn't belong.
Schwimmer!— BEMiller - The real issue for this team is hitting and hitting in the clutch. While it is great to win 9-3 or 14-2 and get 4 hits and 5 RBIs, going o-fer for the next three games with 9 strikeouts is not worth it. The Phillies need consistency in hitting and a great leadoff hitter. I like Rollins and would like to see him stay and bat 6 or 7 as he does have some power and is a switch hitter with great defense. That leaves CF as the spot in question. While Victorino is a fan favorite, he has not shown leadoff hitter qualities (ie...working the count, drag bunts, walks, etc). Is it crazy to consider a package of Howard and Victorino? We now have Mayberry and Thome for first and if Brown can get it together for LF, well, a new CF leadoff hitter and another key bullpen pitcher would really change this team for the better.— psuwelsh
- Thome will play maybe 10 innings at first base all year. Get a clue. Howard is going nowhere. Contract wise, run-producing wise, deal with it. — seaonasdad
- I think Boras was shopping the offer around and Amaro pulled the rug from under him. Don't p*ss RAJ off man...— Grazman
- That's what I think - either Boras pissed him off by shopping the offer, or Boras just leaked the info to put pressure on the Phillies. I think Boras caused this for Madson. Madson will still get a nice contract somewhere else though, but not where he wanted to be. I don't buy the health theory, but it's possible, I suppose.— dawk2020
- I was a little surprised to read the statement that by the end of the 2012 regular season, the Phillies will have 285 straight sellouts. I suppose it's slightly more likely than not, but it just sounds a little presumptuous. Not that attendance will alter finances with a sellout streak end, but still a lot of crowd, but I'm uncomfortable taking the 45k plus every single game off 2 straight playoff disappointments.— KBland
- With the Phillies damn-the-torpedos-full-speed-ahead pursuit of free agents and trades that have gutted the farm, it seems like they've sorta become the Yankees of the NL. You know that at some point, you pay the price for it, so I'm wondering if the aging Giles, Montgomery, et al could be teeing the Phillies up to be sold if they were to win another World Series?— RightSaidJeff
- yeah..i'll take like 13 playoff appearances in 16 years and FIVE WS titles--i hope they do pay the price like the yankees did.
- yeah..i'll take like 13 playoff appearances in 16 years and FIVE WS titles--i hope they do pay the price like the yankees did.
- RightSaidJeff - the Yankees have been in the thick of the hunt pretty much every single year since the mid-90s (and Boston since the early '00s), I'd say that strategy (whether you agree with it or not) works pretty well (7 rings and 9 WS appearances between free-spending NYY/BOS out of 16 opportunities). Let me know when they start "paying a price".— evolutionary
- Re: Papelbon being a Fly Ball Reliever. Fenway is another park that is considered a home run park, and he did fine there.— joeinboston
- Papelbon is an egotistical jerk. He'll fit right in with Philly people.— taxmanndumbeth
- Not to mention the Philadelphia boo boo birdies and other assorted malcontents! — BEMiller
- I agree with the article-the annual dollar term isn't the problem, it's the length of it, and Pap's been slowly declining the past couple of years. He could do it for 2, but not 4 years. I like Madson, but I'm hoping Boras blew it for him and players start looking at that bag of manure more closely as an agent. But, like others have said, we need consistent hitting!!! Keep some dry powder around to pick up hitters Amaro.— donde
- this deal is mind bogglingly dumb. I can't even begin to comprehend what ruben was thinking— Ryan
- I don't know enough about Papelbon to have an educated opinion on this signing. But I'm getting concerned we're becoming the Yankees- just buying up the top FAs. Until a few years ago, our core was home-grown, with strategic FA/trade pieces in place. Now, it' changing.
Yep, I like the Phillies being winners ,but I'd prefer it be done the "old school" way. I guess I need to change in my old age— Polecat_39 - Its kind of funny the 2 biggest topics coming out of spring training was Utley and the closer position. We got one of the best closer on the market and everyone is complaining...typical Philly— trane000
- You are 100% correct, trane, but complaining and second guessing has become an art form among Philly fans. If Ruben would listen to these armchair GMs he would be out of a job in a month and sitting with them next summer in the cheap seats.— Russ
- Mariano River is, arguably, the best short closer of all time. The greatest relief pitcher of all time is someone from the distant past, someone who was coming into a game at any time from the 6th inning to the 9th, and was going to pitch as many innings during the year as to be nearly qualified for things like the ERA championship. Most of these real relief pitchers had short careers, with only a few genuinely productive years. Nominate someone like the Phillies's Jim Konstanty for the greatest reliever of all time. MVP in 1950, short career, but absolutely essential to the Phillies going to the World Series that year--not to mention the only pitcher who started a World Series game without having started a game during the regular season!— BEMiller
- Why would anyone care about the length of a player's contract??— billtfla
- If Philly teams don't overpay players, they get accused of being cheap. If Philly teams teams give an extra year or a vesting option or something like that to push things over the time, they get accused of blowing money. They can't win either way. Good lord, people are seriously complaining that the Phils spent too much money to bring in one of the best closers in the game who also happens to be in his prime. Give me a break.— JimG
- This is the right move as they have a consistent proven closer. Borass has worn out his welcome in Philly as in other places. I see more GM's going to different options to avoid Borass.
If Amaro, Jr does not resign Rollins than his best option is to sign Ramirez and move Polanco to SS. The current SS market is a downgrade to Rollins. Galvis is not ready or the would have brought him up in September. We will see how proactive Amaro, JR really is?— jpelle36
