Predicting the postseason roster
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Predicting the postseason roster
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Sixteen games remain in this season and besides breaking just about every team record for excellence in the Live Ball Era, little drama lingers for these Phillies. That includes the composition of the postseason roster, which should be devoid of any surprises.
Yes, it's that time of the year again. Our second annual Predict the Playoff Roster post is here. Last season, we guessed 24 of 25 correctly. The only miss was including Danys Baez over Domonic Brown.
Here are some issues and questions for the 2011 roster. (And these apply only for the first round, a five-game series.
1. Is everyone accounted for?
The Phillies have 28 players on their current roster, and it figures that the 25 for the division series will come from that pool. Charlie Manuel said as much a couple days ago when I asked him if it were possible for a current minor-leaguer to squeeze in. He effectively said no.
So all of those Domonic Brown and Brandon Moss fans out there are probably out of luck. Even though both players were not on the 25-man roster as of Aug. 31, they remain eligible for the postseason. Baseball rules say anyone in the entire organization on Aug. 31 can replace a player on the disabled list. Jose Contreras is out for the year and he offers that "wild card" spot for the Phillies, if needed.
Right now, it doesn't appear that will be used. That could change, barring only an injury in the final two weeks of the season.
2. John Bowker? Really?
The Aug. 31 deadline to bolster the bench is still in search of his first hit as a Phillie, but I have him on the postseason roster. Why? Right now, he's the best option in a group of unappealing candidates.
Yes, Moss is having quite a nice season for triple-A Lehigh Valley. He's enjoying a fantastic end to his season in the International League playoffs. But he hasn't had a major-league at-bat all season. And the Phillies have had a lengthy chance to look at Moss and decided they could do better. Numbers, especially those in triple A, tell us only so much.
If the Phillies thought Moss could help, he would have been promoted Aug. 31. His bat speed is said to be slower than Bowker's. Bowker is already on the 40-man roster; Moss is not.
And in all honesty, this spot probably has little effect on the postseason. There are three pinch-hitters ahead of Bowker -- Ross Gload, John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco. If the Phillies need four pinch-hitters in a postseason game, they're in trouble (or playing a long game).
A few words on Brown: It's still unclear if he'll even be promoted when the triple-A playoffs end. Manuel said his understanding is that Brown will return. Brown has not been playing the field for the IronPigs in the postseason; he's been their designated hitter. The front office is very non-committal and has suggested that sending Brown home would help his mental state. I'd argue it wouldn't hurt to keep Brown around and let him travel with the team during the playoffs even if he's not on the roster. It at least shows good faith.
3. Aren't both Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez superfluous?
In a way, probably. But the Phillies carried both utility men for the entire season and have won 95 games to date. And they've needed both players to play starting roles at times. With the shaky health of the current infield, both will make it. They each offer a pinch-runner option off the bench, too.
4. Who is the 10th pitcher?
The Phillies carried only 10 pitchers in the first round last season and that was without Four Aces. They'll do the same thing in 2011, but picking 10 worthy pitchers is difficult.
The five starters are on. So are Ryan Madson, Antonio Bastardo, Mike Stutes and Brad Lidge. Even Lidge's spot could be debated because of his erratic control, but he has the experience and flashes of effectiveness to merit a job.
The 10th spot comes down to Kyle Kendrick and David Herndon. Again, this debate is probably moot because if either one is pitching, it means the Phillies are winning or losing big, or in a long game. My guess is the final two weeks of the season decide this spot. Whoever is pitching the best in the final days makes it.
Kendrick has not pitched in three weeks, but he starts the first game of Thursday's doubleheader. He'll also start in Tuesday's doubleheader. The chances for regular work will be plentiful in the final 16 games.
Herndon has either been really, really good or really, really bad. He carried a scoreless streak for weeks. Then he imploded in Florida. When his sinker plays big, it can induce a grounder when needed. When his location is off by just a hair, it devolves into home run derby.
The guess here is Kendrick, mainly because he offers versatility in an emergency situation.
***
Without further ado, our official roster prediction:
Catchers (2)
Carlos Ruiz (R)
Brian Schneider (L)
Infielders (7)
Ryan Howard (L)
Chase Utley (L)
Placido Polanco (R)
Jimmy Rollins (S)
Ross Gload (L)
Wilson Valdez (R)
Michael Martinez (S)
Outfielders (6)
Raul Ibanez (L)
Shane Victorino (S)
Hunter Pence (R)
John Mayberry Jr. (R)
Ben Francisco (R)
John Bowker (L)
Pitchers (10)
Roy Halladay (RHP)
Cliff Lee (LHP)
Cole Hamels (LHP)
Roy Oswalt (RHP)
Vance Worley (RHP)
Ryan Madson (RHP)
Antonio Bastardo (LHP)
Mike Stutes (RHP)
Brad Lidge (RHP)
Kyle Kendrick (RHP)
What would you change?
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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you're clearly off -- Zero chance Phils go with only 10 pitchers, as they never do, and Phils mgmt and Charlie clearly "like" Herndon (I have no idea why) so Herndon will likley be 11th pitcher (eech) unless some lefty call-up impresses them over next 2 weeks (if they ever bring one up) -- Bowker will not make the roster unless he does something more than strike out every time he gets an at bat (except for the one pop-up) and I'm skeptical about the chances of Bowker ever getting a major league hit ever again— warbiscuit- actually I mis-spoke and agree that Phils might go with only 10 pitchers for first round (only)--however I disagree that last player might be Bowker -it mght be Orr or even Brown --dont think Bowker will ever do anything in next 2 wks that would allow the Phils to put him on post season roster --and in any event picking 24 of 25 spots is no big deal as the other 24 are pretty much guaranteed, and the 25th guy will make no difference— warbiscuit
- I meant Orr struckout 3 times on one game and was hitless in his last start and that in both games he wasn't very impressive defensively.— EL Zorro
- Bowker over Brown is idiotic. Who knows if the situation will even present itself but Bot 8 1 out and Ibanez gets a Single. Why wouldnt you send Dom out there to run? You are right its not going to change things too much, but why wouldnt you want his speed?
No reason to have Kendrick on the roster, even over a guy like Schwimmer. For the last pitcher on the roster, the situation is extra innings and getting 3 outs, not extended innings. If you are saying you would rather have Kendrick out there getting 3 outs, you obviously have never watched him pitch.— FABER - I can't understand a love for a guy (Brown) who can't even find a spot defensively on a AAA team. He hasn't even started 2 games. Yes, he's fast, but don't know how to run. Some of you guys should go out a watch more ballgames.— EL Zorro
- I would have David Herndon starting in Game 1 so I can make some easy money in Vegas betting against the Phils.— eldiablodelsol2009
- I would think Orr over Martinez, but neither are very good or likely to play much, if at all. Orr's offensive numbers are slightly better than Martinez. The most likely role for either would be a pinch runner, and Orr is deceptively fast and a better base stealer than Martinez.
I don't see any reason Blanton would make the roster, agree with KK over him or Herndon. God help us if David Herndon appears in a post season game.— Phils Phan 28 - if Blanton pitches decent out of the 'pen down the stretch, he should definitely be on there. I would take him over Kendrick/Herndon or maybe even Stutes. Stutes has definitely been a big contributor this year but he has hit a wall and I would be very uncomfortable with him coming into a close game in the 7th inning.— JesseH
- First, Charlie doesn't pinch run much. How many times late in games you have seen a pinch runner for Raul, Howard and Ruiz, the three slowest runners on the team? Not many. Second, if Raul starts, the first pinch runner would be Mayberry. If Mayberry starts it would be Valdez or Martinez. Period.
— EL Zorro - Dominic Brown on the playoff roster...you must be joking .He can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag right now and all season for that matter— pcc503
- What's scary, and doesn't seem to get addressed, is the state of the farm.
In the last five years it has given us Worley and Bastardo. In the case of position players you can make the case for Mayberry. Thats it.
You can't keep spending for free agents to fill the gaps - we're about topped off. The two brightest stars paid for Pence; and now they're not bothering to call up Dom Brown.
We'll see how this all plays out in the postseason but it's a major drag that there's no one down on the farm that can contribute to this lineup.
And one more time, if Doc and Clifton don't come through big time, it doesn't matter if the bats ever heat up, because if we make it to the WS we're not outslugging Boston or NY...or Detroit for that matter. (And sorry to say I'm starting to get real down on Howard. Nice guy, big talent, but he seems to be one of those guys who hit paydirt and then got complacent...)— Cameiros - The state of the farm as you said is not exactly as dire as you're acting. Their AAA and AA teams are both in the playoffs, so what that means in essence is that the phillies farm players are in the upper echelon relatively speaking to the rest of the league. Their farm has been used to bring in players that have allowed them to maintain success. Thats what the best teams do. Bring in top talent, while slowly bringing in rookies. You use the 5 year cut off creatively don't you? Because the farm system is largely responsible for beginning this run. You really want to see the phils putting rookies out there and playing cheap? or do you want to see them winning games by using those rookies for top flight talent? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, STOP WHINING ABOUT WHAT COULD BE A PROBLEM!!!!! I really don't understand people like you who can't be happy no matter what the team is doing. — birdsfaninnc
- No team with Michael Martinez should ever win a WS. Guy can't hit, bunt, run, or now it seems, field. (Why exactly was this guy a Rule 5 pickup? Oh yeah, he makes $414k.) Take Orr and Valdez, also Blanton over Kendrick or Herndon if he shows that he can pitch out of the pen over the last couple of weeks.— user1796
- "it wouldn't hurt to keep Brown around and let him travel with the team"..." It at least shows good faith". Please explain, neither makes any sense. He got a ton of good faith all year and played his way out of any more.
— jimmymack - I think Gelb has it exactly right. I'd send Brown home and inquire about trading him this off-season. If he's a quitter or pouter, he's not a Phillie. Finding a solid outfielder is not that difficult and we'd still have Mayberry and Francisco on the bench.— eman
