Phillies' situational woes are historic
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday - Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that - but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
Phillies' situational woes are historic
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday — Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that — but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
These Phillies are historically bad at situational hitting.
When Victorino swung at the second pitch from Jason Hammel and popped it into foul territory behind third base, he failed to score a runner from third base with less than two outs. It was the only such chance of the day.
The Phillies are dead last in baseball with a 38 percent success rate when batting with runners on third and less than two outs. They have batted 117 times with that situation and only 45 have yielded a run in some way, whether it be via a hit, groundout or sacrifice fly.
That is the worst rate for any team since at least 1948.
Baseball Reference keeps play-by-play data from 1948 on and few teams have even come close to the Phillies' futility. Only the 1965 Mets had a rate below 40 percent; they scored 39 percent from third with less than two outs. That team finished 50-112 and only 47 games back.
What does this mean? Of course, the sample size is small. The Phillies have played 62 games. Ultimately, their success rate in those situations should normalize and at least approach the league average. Such a miserable rate through 62 games could implicate bad luck as a factor.
But there is no disputing the Phillies have mostly been terrible in these situations. Think about how many times a runner has stood on third and when all it takes is a medium-sized fly ball or groundout to score him, a Phillies hitter pops out or whiffs.
Here is how each individual player has performed in those situations:
| Advances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2,3B | Scr | % ▾ | ||
| Freddy Galvis# | 4 | 3 | 75% | |
| Pete Orr* | 3 | 2 | 67% | |
| Carlos Ruiz | 12 | 8 | 67% | |
| Shane Victorino# | 15 | 8 | 53% | |
| Hector Luna | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| Juan Pierre* | 8 | 3 | 38% | |
| Ty Wigginton | 13 | 5 | 38% | |
| Hunter Pence | 20 | 7 | 35% | |
| Jimmy Rollins# | 9 | 3 | 33% | |
| Brian Schneider* | 3 | 1 | 33% | |
| Placido Polanco | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| Jim Thome* | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| John Mayberry | 12 | 2 | 17% | |
| Joe Blanton | 2 | 0 | 0% | |
| Mike Fontenot* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Roy Halladay | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Cole Hamels* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Laynce Nix* | 3 | 0 | 0% | |
| Team Total | 117 | 45 | 38% | |
Consider this: If the Phillies had simply equaled the major-league average (51 percent) in those situations, it would have resulted in 15 additional runs scored over the season's first 62 games. The Phillies have already underperformed their pythagorean record — with 261 runs scored and 262 allowed, they should theoretically be 31-31 instead of 29-33. Another 15 runs over 62 games would predict a .526 winning percentage using pythagorean record, which would represent a three-game swing from the current 29-33.
But that only exists in some fantasy world. Reality says the Phillies are worse than any team in the last 64 years in key situations and it has cost them.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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.....fire Greg Gross?— beefbre- This is the same reason that they canned Milt Thompson, too. — makrom
Comment removed.- First, these players aren't very good. Second, these not very good players aren't very smart either. The team's manager needs to do the thinking for them to tell them when they should be bunting, stealing, etc but that's not really his strong suit either. It's much easier when they're just hitting home runs. Better hope Utley and Howard come back soon and hit a lot of home runs.— hunglikeaton
- Time to reboot and look ahead. Next year we won't have: Victorino, Polanco, Pierre, Wigginton, Thome, (probably) Utley, Schneider, Luna, Fontenot and Mikey Mart. Also, Blanton and (perhaps?) Hamels. This time will be, and should be, very different and Amaro will have considerable salary space to work with, if he can clear Utley somehow. We'll see how good he is.— eman
- Utley seems nearly impossible to move to me. Maybe if he comes back and has a second half that comes close to his 2009 numbers. Or if he shows some sort of power resurgence that would make him look good as a DH. Third base (Polanco leaving) is a given. If they could somehow replace two of those infield positions instead of one, that would be a very good move in the right direction. I also would not rule out Pence being traded. It seems possible to have an entirely different outfield next year. — s
- But you don't understand! The front office is so inept, they brought Ed Wade back! So until we get rid of the people who are clueless enough to hire the clueless people running the show, we will get the same ineptitude! Seriously...RAJ, Uncle Chollie, The 3 stooges in the broadcast booth, Juan Samuel at 3rd. Gregg Gross....the list is ENDLESS!!!
Does anyone have a guess how hard it is to make a $180 million dollar last place team with HISTORIC inefficiency numbers?? ONLY THE PHILLIES BABY!!!!— Mortimer G Fingenfinderstein III - I look at the big picture and feel that these hitting woes and slumps started in 2009, specifically in the World Series where our boys could have gone on to be back to back Champions. Instead, Ryan sets the all time strike out mark in a series. That year began the No Run Support For Hamels Campaign that has been a hallmark up until this year.
With the homer friendly confines of CBP, players like Rollins and Victorino traded batting average/singles/doubles for the glamour of the long ball. Works ok here by the Delaware, but not so much in other cities. How many years have we heard Larry Bowa moan and groan about Rollins penchant for swinging for the long ball? The answer is not to fire Greg Gross when these 2 players don't even listen to the Manager! The real answer lies in demotion in the batting order, a bench sitting or 2 or outright trade. I will be curious to see how it plays out for Victorino. I think his shelf life is expiring, despite competent play in center. My prototypical lead off man would be a player like Dykstra, who worked every at bat, every time. Players like Rollins and Victorino have made it too easy with their 1 pitch pop ups or bouncers to third. One day when this run is long over we may learn how frustrating it must have been to have managed talented players like these 2, gold plated batting talent with cubic zirconium airheads!
These 2 players in particular, in my humble opinion, are shining examples of why this team is where it is offensively.— DelawareRiverRat - You wish Victorino would be playing better just so we could get some good pieces in a trade before he leaves to free agency. Of course, then everyone would be screaming "Why did we let him go?!" But really, his career has been one of underachieving just enough to tantalize us. I see no way he's back next year but stranger things have happened with this club. I like Shane -- nothing personal. But there's going to be nothing bad in changing out CF next year.
If only RAJ had hindsight I can't imagine he'd have signed Rollins. But, like I said, stranger things ...
I can't see any way of moving Rollins at this point.— s - Wrong, RAJ didn't need good hind sight to know he should not resign Rollins. He just needed to pay attention to the obvious which the poster above pointed out to you. He's a lifetime failure as a lead off hitter and will not change his approach. He's been in decline for 4 years now.
- What I meant is I doubt even RAJ would sign Rollins if he knew then what he knows now.
Personally, I was on the fence. Not knowing if Galvis was ready and not going into the season giving up on post-season hopes, I can partly see why they signed Rollins. If they weren't going take a shot at Reyes (which also seemed obvious), it was either Rollins or take a 1-2 year shot with someone else. I know a lot of people don't like Reyes but if you're truly going to change approach, what better way than to sign a guy like him to lead off? Reyes would have been my first choice.
To me, the bad part was the bigger picture: Once they signed Rollins and we knew Polanco was coming back, the youth movement should have been on the bench.— s - As much as folks like to rag on Greg Gross and Charlie Manuel, the last time I checked, neither had a bat in their hand in the batters box with runners on third with less than two outs. You can lead a horse to water, but to get the horse to float on its back in the water....thats a trick. The "paid" players need to start putting mirrors in their lockers and start looking directly at the problems. I won't rag on the coaches, just like I won't give them too much credit for the past 5 years success run. In the end, its the guys cashing those 8/7 figure pay checks who have to perform on the field.— drhoffman
- It is Ryne Sandberg time— 26Fan
- It is now easier to pursue other interests than subject myself to the torture of watching these games. Apparently I learned situational hitting better in HS than these professionals have over longer careers. What a JOKE! And when you listen to management, they readily accept that "they are what they are" so they can't learn anyhting new. Really? Try telling that to your boss and see how well it goes over. What is this, the only profession where you are not expected to try and improve yourself?— philharmonic55
