Phillies' situational woes are historic
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday - Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that - but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
Phillies' situational woes are historic
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday — Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that — but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
These Phillies are historically bad at situational hitting.
When Victorino swung at the second pitch from Jason Hammel and popped it into foul territory behind third base, he failed to score a runner from third base with less than two outs. It was the only such chance of the day.
The Phillies are dead last in baseball with a 38 percent success rate when batting with runners on third and less than two outs. They have batted 117 times with that situation and only 45 have yielded a run in some way, whether it be via a hit, groundout or sacrifice fly.
That is the worst rate for any team since at least 1948.
Baseball Reference keeps play-by-play data from 1948 on and few teams have even come close to the Phillies' futility. Only the 1965 Mets had a rate below 40 percent; they scored 39 percent from third with less than two outs. That team finished 50-112 and only 47 games back.
What does this mean? Of course, the sample size is small. The Phillies have played 62 games. Ultimately, their success rate in those situations should normalize and at least approach the league average. Such a miserable rate through 62 games could implicate bad luck as a factor.
But there is no disputing the Phillies have mostly been terrible in these situations. Think about how many times a runner has stood on third and when all it takes is a medium-sized fly ball or groundout to score him, a Phillies hitter pops out or whiffs.
Here is how each individual player has performed in those situations:
| Advances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2,3B | Scr | % ▾ | ||
| Freddy Galvis# | 4 | 3 | 75% | |
| Pete Orr* | 3 | 2 | 67% | |
| Carlos Ruiz | 12 | 8 | 67% | |
| Shane Victorino# | 15 | 8 | 53% | |
| Hector Luna | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| Juan Pierre* | 8 | 3 | 38% | |
| Ty Wigginton | 13 | 5 | 38% | |
| Hunter Pence | 20 | 7 | 35% | |
| Jimmy Rollins# | 9 | 3 | 33% | |
| Brian Schneider* | 3 | 1 | 33% | |
| Placido Polanco | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| Jim Thome* | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| John Mayberry | 12 | 2 | 17% | |
| Joe Blanton | 2 | 0 | 0% | |
| Mike Fontenot* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Roy Halladay | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Cole Hamels* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Laynce Nix* | 3 | 0 | 0% | |
| Team Total | 117 | 45 | 38% | |
Consider this: If the Phillies had simply equaled the major-league average (51 percent) in those situations, it would have resulted in 15 additional runs scored over the season's first 62 games. The Phillies have already underperformed their pythagorean record — with 261 runs scored and 262 allowed, they should theoretically be 31-31 instead of 29-33. Another 15 runs over 62 games would predict a .526 winning percentage using pythagorean record, which would represent a three-game swing from the current 29-33.
But that only exists in some fantasy world. Reality says the Phillies are worse than any team in the last 64 years in key situations and it has cost them.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Poll: Whose help could the punchless Phillies use most?
Buy Phillies tickets - Gee, s, that sounds very like some group named the Street Louis Cardinals in 2011! Stay relatively close, start getting hot in the middle of August and September, make a lucky call up or trade, and carry the whole thing into October. In fact, this sort of thing, especially now, doesn't even call for collapses. When the Giant won the pennant, the Giants won the pennant, the Giants won the pennant in 1951, it was NOT because of a collapse by the Dodgers. The Giants simply played out of their heads! If someone can get some of these batters to relax and not try to do all of it by one's self, they might be able to overcome the horrific start! Who knows? (No one knows, excepting for the Blithering Bizkit of Bellicosity, who would seem to prefer being a crab, of one or another sort, and a latter-day know-nothing-it all!)
— BEMiller - It's a much different situation already. At this time last year the Cardinals were 10 games over .500 and they really only had the Brewers close in their division. They were also leading the NL Central. That's a far cry from being at the bottom of the NL East with 4 teams above you playing well. Sure, I'd love to see it happen but .600 ball the rest of the year is probably the minimum required to get there. A team that plays .600 ball all year wins 97-98 games. I just don't see it happening with this team. They'd have to turn that .600 switch on this week. Do you really see that happening ... Halladay out for weeks, no Howard or Utley yet, Galvis likely out for a while now ... If they're within 5 games or less at the trade deadline then maybe. Any way you look at it, it's wishful thinking. The way they're playing they could just as easily be 15 out by the trade deadline. — s
- if you sign an over-40 former player with bakc issues who can no longer hit or field, guess what? it's irrelevant that he once upon a time hit 600 hrs— warbiscuit
- For what the contract is, it was a good idea at the time. You do continue to show your stupidity and malice.
As for the 40+ man, Jim Thome: It's always better to be a has been than a never was, NOR, will be as yourself!
GOOD GRIEF!— BEMiller - I agreed with warbiscuit here in the offseason. I like Jim Thome, so nothing personal but there was absolutely no reason to believe he would suddenly become a good PH. He tried with the Dodgers and stunk. As we've seen in Baltimore he's a good DH. That's good for 9 of our 162 games. For a GM to know he's going into the season with so many question marks in the infield, it was pretty irresponsible and short-sighted to sign a bat-only 41 year old who stinks as a PH. He wastes a roster spot if nothing else. There really was no logic at all to that move. It was purely a feel-good wishful thinking type move -- the type of moves overconfident GMs make. By the same token, signing the trio of Thome, Wigginton, and Nix looked very one-dimensional to me at the time. Yes, they're not identical but they all have a lot of the same weaknesses. Some balance on the bench was called for and Amaro missed the boat in my opinion. — s
- Moreover, if you keep posting the same pathetic line of whining and moaning, year after month after week after day after minute, it would seem obvious you haven't anything worth saying. — BEMiller
- Perhaps this is a sign they are trying TOO hard when there are runners on base. Getting the regular 3 & 4 hitters back might help some of them relax a bit, even if Utley and Howard are not 100%.— oltmannd
- ...and if you fail to get the runner in from 3rd with < 2 outs, does Charlie hold you accountable? (A: NO!) Soon, we will be finding out if Ryne Sandberg does.— Phront_Runner
- if you sign a former pitcher who's had an era between 5 and 10 for each of the past 5 years (willis), and say, gee whiz maybe he can pitch, you're still blowing smoke and did not help the bullpen one iota regardless of when you release him— warbiscuit
- The supposed strategy was to play .500 ball until Utley (May) and Howard (AS break) came back and then make a push.
All the stats indicate Cholly has enough to at least do that. He still has decent pitching and a good defense and the stats show he has enough offense considering BA, SP, runs scored etc to play .500 baseball. And he can’t do it. Someone mentioned in another post “the manager sets the tone” – BINGO!
— majpooper - Just a bad offensive team, any way you look at it. Jimmy and Shane have to be near the top of the league in hitting pop-ups. They just have to.— MrPhillie
- Warbiscuit I love how you just tell the GOD'S HONEST TRUTH. Shame no one else knows it's the truth.Advantasux I know you agree and listen.H— tobyjoe
- Warbiscuit I love how you just tell the GOD'S HONEST TRUTH. Shame no one else knows it's the truth.Advantasux I know you agree and listen.H— tobyjoe
- If you are old enough, do you remember that 1960 opening day team?
Catcher Jim Coker
First Base Ed Bouchee
Second Base Pancho Herrera
Shortstop Joe Koppe
Third Base Alvin Dark
Left Field Harry Anderson
Center Field Bobby Delgreco
Right Field Tony Curry
The manager on opening day was Eddie Sawyer, of Whiz Kids fame, and former college professor. Sawyer, after the opening 9 to 4 loss to Cincinnati was smart enough to see the handwriting on the wall and resigned immediately after the game saying, "I'm 49 years old and want to live to see 50". Gene Mauch took over for the remainder of that season and lasted until 1968. ALthough never known as a choirboy, Mauch raised smoking, drinking, heckling and cursing to a fine artform during his early tenure with a team that would end up 59 and 95 for the year, only to outdo itself by recording an astounding 23 consecutive losses in his second year as manager. (There was many a clubhouse that looked like it had been hit by a hurricane by game's end that year) Now, that was a team you could really shake your head over! Mauch did have some endearing qualities as a manager however, chief among them was his ability to get his team to play 'small ball', a skill the present team needs badly. By sheer personal willpower he nearly coerced the '64 team to a title before they burned out in the last week of the season. If there ever was a team that played over their heads, it was those guys. Yeah, I really would love to see what Mauch would do with this bunch. I guarantee that you would NOT be walking away from the game before the very final out.
— Ron Datesman
