Phillies' situational woes are historic
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday - Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that - but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
Phillies' situational woes are historic
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday — Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that — but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
These Phillies are historically bad at situational hitting.
When Victorino swung at the second pitch from Jason Hammel and popped it into foul territory behind third base, he failed to score a runner from third base with less than two outs. It was the only such chance of the day.
The Phillies are dead last in baseball with a 38 percent success rate when batting with runners on third and less than two outs. They have batted 117 times with that situation and only 45 have yielded a run in some way, whether it be via a hit, groundout or sacrifice fly.
That is the worst rate for any team since at least 1948.
Baseball Reference keeps play-by-play data from 1948 on and few teams have even come close to the Phillies' futility. Only the 1965 Mets had a rate below 40 percent; they scored 39 percent from third with less than two outs. That team finished 50-112 and only 47 games back.
What does this mean? Of course, the sample size is small. The Phillies have played 62 games. Ultimately, their success rate in those situations should normalize and at least approach the league average. Such a miserable rate through 62 games could implicate bad luck as a factor.
But there is no disputing the Phillies have mostly been terrible in these situations. Think about how many times a runner has stood on third and when all it takes is a medium-sized fly ball or groundout to score him, a Phillies hitter pops out or whiffs.
Here is how each individual player has performed in those situations:
| Advances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2,3B | Scr | % ▾ | ||
| Freddy Galvis# | 4 | 3 | 75% | |
| Pete Orr* | 3 | 2 | 67% | |
| Carlos Ruiz | 12 | 8 | 67% | |
| Shane Victorino# | 15 | 8 | 53% | |
| Hector Luna | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| Juan Pierre* | 8 | 3 | 38% | |
| Ty Wigginton | 13 | 5 | 38% | |
| Hunter Pence | 20 | 7 | 35% | |
| Jimmy Rollins# | 9 | 3 | 33% | |
| Brian Schneider* | 3 | 1 | 33% | |
| Placido Polanco | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| Jim Thome* | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| John Mayberry | 12 | 2 | 17% | |
| Joe Blanton | 2 | 0 | 0% | |
| Mike Fontenot* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Roy Halladay | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Cole Hamels* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Laynce Nix* | 3 | 0 | 0% | |
| Team Total | 117 | 45 | 38% | |
Consider this: If the Phillies had simply equaled the major-league average (51 percent) in those situations, it would have resulted in 15 additional runs scored over the season's first 62 games. The Phillies have already underperformed their pythagorean record — with 261 runs scored and 262 allowed, they should theoretically be 31-31 instead of 29-33. Another 15 runs over 62 games would predict a .526 winning percentage using pythagorean record, which would represent a three-game swing from the current 29-33.
But that only exists in some fantasy world. Reality says the Phillies are worse than any team in the last 64 years in key situations and it has cost them.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Poll: Whose help could the punchless Phillies use most?
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There is no reason not to move onward/forward for 2013. Get Hamels signed AFTER the July CBA deadline, so his bonus/salary won't affect the 2012 Cap. Look for Youkalis/Quinten for a trade with the intention of a 2-3 year deal in place. Let some of the "young bucks" come up and get some AB's against MLB pitching. Cody Overbrook can't get better in the minors any longer. Darin Ruf is tearing the cover off the ball at AA. Dom Brown should continue his advancement in AAA, knowing by September, when the life rafts have left the NL pool, he will get a good look for 2013. See if any teams in the race have a need for Juan Pierre/Victorino. Gotta move some of the pieces that won't be back in 2013. If/When Utley/Howard return, put out a decent, regular line up that can be counted on for 2013, knowing Chase needs to head off to Germany for treatment like ARod/Kobe. Get some of the younger bullpen guys some MLB experience so next season, there won't be a need for a "Dany's Baez"/"Chad Qualls" type in the pen. Most teams have a blip in the radar during the good times...this is our blip...as long as there is a plan for 2013.— drhoffman- For months the chorus has been, "Wait until Howard and Utley come back." But IF they do come back and have anything to contribute...a huge IF...what makes anyone think other key players won't continue to break down with injuries?
Here's a fun exercise for a hot June afternoon: Name five current Phillies who will strongly contribute to the 2014 Phillies.— dasher - Good teams find ways to win games. Bad teams find ways to lose games. The Phils are a bad team that has gone downhill the last 3 years from an offensive standpoint. Even with their all star lineup, they failed to score a run in the most important game of last year. Time to put a manager who can think outside the box and be a hands on manager. Use your closer when you have a day off following a game. Put a take sign on a batter when the pitcher is facing a bases loaded situation and the count is 1-0. Change the leadoff batter when he goes 1 for 15. It will be a miracle if Hamels stays in Philly. This team will finish last so you might want to bring up some minor league players and see if there is any potential players. Brown is hot, bring him up. Nothing to lose at this point. Phils might be 15 games out by the All Star Break.— Pap
- Wasn't that the reason that Milt Thopmson got the boot, too?
This is part of the fundamentals of hitting that the Phillies have been missing for the entire time under Manuel.
Moving runners, bunting, hit & run, driving runners home from 3rd ... it's been a problem for a couple of years now.— makrom - Stevie Wonder could have seen the coming decline for this team after 2008 and 2009. Amaro did what he thought was best by bringing in veterans at the expense of the farm system. There were two reasons he did that (1) the need to win now and (2) Manuel is absolutely terrible with young guys (not that he is so great with veterans). At the end of the day this is all about a crummy manager who has been very lucky rather then good.— gates2012
- Paging Ryne Sandberg, paging Ryne Sandberg, please report to Philadelphia and assume Greg Gross' duties, to be shortly followed by Charlie Manual's— philly13
- And the Phillies are 2nd in the NL in batting average. If you're going to be selective with what stats you look at, then anyone can find good and bad stats for any team. I thought Gelb believed in all the stat geek stuff? Those guys will tell you that hitting with runners in scoring position is all luck and that there is no statistical evidence of anyone being "clutch" over the course of their career.— JimG
- If the Phillies are out of the race by the trading deadline, look for them to offer Victorino and Hamels as a package to a contending team.
A pretty attractive package.
They should be able to get a young talented player with that kind of offer. No sense in getting older talent.
We would be officially in the rebuilding mode at that point.
In the offseason we could try to unload some of the other rich contracts. No sense in keeping them either as they will be over the hill by the time we are ready to contend again.
Easy sell if we get young talent in their place.
How do we sell tickets in the meantime.
Create Phanatic 2, 3 and 4. Keep the fans distracted from what is going on in the game.— candidly - Ruben's Retreads.— wo_fat
- if you give $33 million to a .230 hitting shortstop who was good in 2007, he's still a .230 hitting shortstop in 2012— warbiscuit
- if you sign an awful fielder and hitter who has been a loser everywhere hes played and proclaim, hey look he's going to fill in for out missing starters, he;s still an awful player and loser (wigginton) who can't play sh$%— warbiscuit
- First off, trade Stroll. Trade Vic before year end. Trade Blanton. Release Qualls and Herndon. Release Schneider, Fontenot and either Thome or Wigginton. Put Pierre and Polanco on the bench. Resign Koig Cole. Call up Kratz, Hernandez, Gillies, Overbeck, Brown and Cloyd.— wo_fat
- I would also like to see them trade Rollins but.....
Who is going to take him at that cost for the next four years ?
Amaro would'nt dare trade him now and eat part of the contact while he is in the first year of his new contract. He would have to admit he made a mistake. Ain't gonna happen!
Blanton is about as marketable as a house on fire.
I definitely like the idea of bringing up the young players. I think that will have to wait until the Phillies determine there is no chance to make the playoffs.
This team got old and slow before we got a second World Championship out of them.This was the last year, with this group, to squeeze out another championship.
Looks very unlikely now.— candidly 
Comment removed.- The math doesn't look too good. They'd have to play .600 or better ball, or we'd have to see some epic collapses by teams like the Nats and Braves. If the Nats limit Stasburg's innings like they said they would going into the season, they could easily fade in August/September. Something tells me Strasburg will keep pitching as long as they're winning.
I think the good news is the Phillies have the ability to get back in it beyond this year. They have a high payroll and there's a TV deal looming. A place like Washington, where they don't have the fan base or the revenue would have a harder time sustaining year-in year-out good teams. This doesn't have to be like the teams many of us grew up with, where we ended up watching this kind of baseball for years on end with no hope in sight.
— s
