Phillies' situational woes are historic
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday - Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that - but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
Phillies' situational woes are historic
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It hardly served as the defining image of another defeat Sunday — Ty Wigginton's botched attempt at fielding a grounder in the 10th inning did that — but Shane Victorino's swing in the first inning was so emblematic of a numbing season that continues to spiral into hopelessness.
These Phillies are historically bad at situational hitting.
When Victorino swung at the second pitch from Jason Hammel and popped it into foul territory behind third base, he failed to score a runner from third base with less than two outs. It was the only such chance of the day.
The Phillies are dead last in baseball with a 38 percent success rate when batting with runners on third and less than two outs. They have batted 117 times with that situation and only 45 have yielded a run in some way, whether it be via a hit, groundout or sacrifice fly.
That is the worst rate for any team since at least 1948.
Baseball Reference keeps play-by-play data from 1948 on and few teams have even come close to the Phillies' futility. Only the 1965 Mets had a rate below 40 percent; they scored 39 percent from third with less than two outs. That team finished 50-112 and only 47 games back.
What does this mean? Of course, the sample size is small. The Phillies have played 62 games. Ultimately, their success rate in those situations should normalize and at least approach the league average. Such a miserable rate through 62 games could implicate bad luck as a factor.
But there is no disputing the Phillies have mostly been terrible in these situations. Think about how many times a runner has stood on third and when all it takes is a medium-sized fly ball or groundout to score him, a Phillies hitter pops out or whiffs.
Here is how each individual player has performed in those situations:
| Advances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2,3B | Scr | % ▾ | ||
| Freddy Galvis# | 4 | 3 | 75% | |
| Pete Orr* | 3 | 2 | 67% | |
| Carlos Ruiz | 12 | 8 | 67% | |
| Shane Victorino# | 15 | 8 | 53% | |
| Hector Luna | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| Juan Pierre* | 8 | 3 | 38% | |
| Ty Wigginton | 13 | 5 | 38% | |
| Hunter Pence | 20 | 7 | 35% | |
| Jimmy Rollins# | 9 | 3 | 33% | |
| Brian Schneider* | 3 | 1 | 33% | |
| Placido Polanco | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| Jim Thome* | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| John Mayberry | 12 | 2 | 17% | |
| Joe Blanton | 2 | 0 | 0% | |
| Mike Fontenot* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Roy Halladay | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Cole Hamels* | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| Laynce Nix* | 3 | 0 | 0% | |
| Team Total | 117 | 45 | 38% | |
Consider this: If the Phillies had simply equaled the major-league average (51 percent) in those situations, it would have resulted in 15 additional runs scored over the season's first 62 games. The Phillies have already underperformed their pythagorean record — with 261 runs scored and 262 allowed, they should theoretically be 31-31 instead of 29-33. Another 15 runs over 62 games would predict a .526 winning percentage using pythagorean record, which would represent a three-game swing from the current 29-33.
But that only exists in some fantasy world. Reality says the Phillies are worse than any team in the last 64 years in key situations and it has cost them.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Buy Phillies tickets 
retzlaff, they've been one of the most patient teams in the league for years. Now suddenly it messed up their swings.
By the way, CBP is not a great hitters park:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/11/21/2485197/phillies-citizens-bank-park-not-a-hitters-haven— schmenkman
Comment removed.
bad luck? really??? it's not bad luck when you chase a pitch out-of-the-zone, it's not bad luck when you constantly get yourself into pitcher's counts. you MAKE your own luck by doing things the right way...this team wouldn't know a quality at-bat if it bit them in the *— nyphilliephan- OK Schmidty, well first there are only 6 with 50+ plate appearances, so Galvis is 4th out of 6. He' also 6th out of 9 with 30+.
And a .236 average and .627 OPS might not be what most people think of when they hear "clutch".— schmenkman - and so when you build a team of poor hitters who can't hit and always stike out, pop out or ground into double plays, it's surprising that they do so? almost as surprising as putting your bullpen hopes in the hands of Dontrelle Willis, Qualls, and a bunch of mediocre minor leaguers and then -- shockingly --find that they're all as bad as their stats said they would be....what a shock for cluelesss Rube that his team of useless garbage is playing like useless garbage— warbiscuit
- Cliff Lee must have mixed emotions. He's getting $24 million a year but sees Hamels leaving this sinking ship at the end of the year, joining a great team with the same money.— farley
- I now check the score on mlb.com before I'll even turn on a Phillies game and if they're behind, I won't even bother. They have absolutely zero comeback ability this year, whereas in the past, even if they were 3 runs behind, I would say "we've got 'em right where we want 'em", because at that time the Phillies could come back from that deficit easily, sometimes with one big swing. Now, even a 3 or 4 run lead in the 7th inning isn't safe with the Phillies bullpen. Chances are the lead will be blown before they can get to Papelbon in the 9th. Even when the Phillies manage to win a game now, its not fun to watch. Typically, they'll score early and then shut it down offensively, barely hanging on for the win. They rarely add on to a lead. I'm ready to write this season off as a lost one and just hope that they make the moves necessary to fix things over the winter.— SteveS11
- This is the team Amaro built. Someone please hold someone accountable for the results so hopefully we can start getting better and perhaps take advantage of our deep starting pitching.— lazyboy
- warbiscuit, you must follow the team closely. How can it be then that you don't know they have the fewest strikeouts in the league? That's like being a Celtics fan and looking forward to their game against OkC tomorrow.— schmenkman
- You're being selective. @warbiscuit specifically said "stike out, pop out or ground into double plays." The Phils may gave the fewest SO's in the NL but they lead in both ground outs and fly outs. An out is an out. The most important stat is this: They lead the league in SUCK. They play some of the worst baseball I've seen and I watched a lot of bad Phillies teams.
— s - it's all relative. it's phillies 2012 clutch, and better than pop up rollins.— schmidty123
- Wigginton is the 2nd coming of Dr. Strangeglove.— brio
- Schmenkman, every blog I go to your on sprouting that stats B.S. and defending Jimmie popup. We're doomed for at least the next 4 or 5 years as did you notice the P's draft again this year hitters in the early rounds mostly highschoolers.— chucke9
- chucke9, luckily for you, you seem to have been unaffected by all the exposure to "that stats B.S."— schmenkman
Trade RAJ, the idiot that thought waiting for Chase and Howard to come back from potentially career ending injuries was a good strategy in the off season. The idiot that built a team that can't hit around pitching in a hitters ball park. The idiot that has a smug look on his face as he makes excuse after excuse for making poor decisions such as extending Rollins contract and replacing the 2008 World Series team with pretenders to the point that were no longer contenders.
