Pence and the payroll
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Pence and the payroll
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
On Saturday night, Hunter Pence is expected to take his place in right field at Citizens Bank Park, a spot he will man for the next three seasons. He is a Phillie through 2013 because of his two remaining arbitration years. That's why Ruben Amaro Jr. said he was willing to surrender his top two prospects to attain him.
"It's a huge element in it," Amaro said. "He's under 30. He has a lot of energy. He's a guy our fans will take to very well. Control is a big part. I don't like rentals. I don't believe in those."
That doesn't mean Pence will come cheap. He is making $6.9 million in 2011. He made $3.5 million in 2010, his first year of arbitration. Because of his early call-up in 2007, Pence achieved Super Two status, granting him one early year of arbitration. Basically, he's in the same category as Cole Hamels, although the Phllies bought out three of Hamels' arbitration years with a long-term extension before the 2009 season.
Houston has gone year-to-year with Pence and it remains to be seen whether the Phillies will do the same. If they do, he'll be due a significant raise through the arbitration process in 2012. Let's say, for the sake of accounting, that it is a similar raise to the one he made from 2010 to 2011. That puts Pence at $10 million for 2012.
He would be the fifth $10 million man already on the 2012 Phillies payroll.
To review, the Phillies have already committed $106.95 million to nine players for 2012.
| Cliff Lee | $21.5 MIL |
| Roy Halladay | $20 MIL |
| Ryan Howard | $20 MIL |
| Chase Utley | $15 MIL |
| Shane Victorino | $9.5 MIL |
| Joe Blanton | $8.5 MIL |
| Placido Polanco | $6.25 MIL |
| Carlos Ruiz | $3.7 MIL |
| Jose Contreras | $2.5 MIL |
Lee's salary increases by $10 million from 2011 to 2012. Victorino has a $2 million raise from 2011 to 2012. Ruiz's and Polanco's is $1 million each.
So yeah, while the Phillies have $23 million coming off the books in Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, it is offset by $14 million in raises, plus the $1.5 million for Lidge's buyout.
That doesn't include arbitration for Hamels, who is making $9.5 million in 2011 and could earn a killing. (Even if it's through a long-term extension.) He'll be the sixth $10 million man.
Then there's Roy Oswalt, who has a $16 million mutual option with a $2 million buyout. And the Phillies have four other arbitration-eligible piayers, all of whom could be non-tendered: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, Wilson Valdez and Scott Mathieson.
So for our purposes, we'll assume a $14 million salary for Hamels in 2012 and $10 million for Pence. We will decline Oswalt's option, along with Lidge's.
| Cliff Lee | $21.5 MIL |
| Roy Halladay | $20 MIL |
| Ryan Howard | $20 MIL |
| Chase Utley | $15 MIL |
| Cole Hamels | $14 MIL |
| Hunter Pence | $10 MIL |
| Shane Victorino | $9.5 MIL |
| Joe Blanton | $8.5 MIL |
| Placido Polanco | $6.25 MIL |
| Carlos Ruiz | $3.7 MIL |
| Jose Contreras | $2.5 MIL |
| Roy Oswalt | $2 MIL |
| Brad Lidge | $1.5 MIL |
Now we're up to $134.45 million invested in only 11 active players. (The payments to Oswalt and Lidge are buyouts.) That still leaves:
-- A shortstop: Jimmy Rollins could be the seventh $10 million player. We'd project something like a three-year, $33 million deal to sign him. It could take even more.
-- A closer: Ryan Madson is a free agent and will seek top dollar on the market. Will a budget crunch force the Phillies to think about using Antonio Bastardo as closer?
-- A fifth starter: Blanton is on there, but we're unsure what his condition will be come spring. Vance Worley will make less than $500,000. He'll be in the rotation.
-- A left fielder: This should be Domonic Brown. He'll also make less than $500,000.
-- Another bullpen arm: There's Bastardo, Michael Stutes and... ? Contreras is under contract, but what is his health situation? Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont and Michael Schwimer could represent the next wave of young arms. But the Phillies probably want a veteran or two for depth.
-- An entire bench: Brian Schneider and Ross Gload are free agents. They're likely gone. They made a combined $3.1 million in 2011 and we've seen what that money can buy. So for an upgrade, it costs. Ben Francisco made $1.18 million in his first year of arbitration. He'd get a raise if they tender a contract.
***
The good news (sort of) for the Phillies: The luxury tax threshold rises every season. In 2009, it was $162 million. In 2010 it was $170 million. This season, it's $178 million. A comparable increase puts it around $186 million in 2012. (Again, that's an assumption especially because a new collective bargaining agreement this winter could contain different proposals.)
Pence's addition provides Amaro and his people with "cost certainty" -- the buzz phrase used two winters ago when they inked Blanton, Victorino and Ruiz to long-term deals covering arbitration years. It takes away their need to scour the free-agent market for a corner outfielder. They know Pence is probably due around $10 million in 2012 and approximately $13 million in 2013.
But it doesn't make balancing the budget any easier.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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that Blanton money in the chart jumps out like a kick in the teeth— tdoc- If Blanton can pitch one inning next Spring, trade him immediately ...the Yanks always need RH pitching and would be willing to take him. Vance stays in the rotation and if Roy O does well the rest of the year, so does he. Let Brian, Ross, Ben, Lidge, Raul, Wilson, Jose, all walk. Use the kids to fill the bench and pen. Try to sign Mad but if not, get another guy from the Padres like Qualls and that is that. Time to allow the kids to aid the vets. There are PHitters around, and that is not a big deal.— Koons
- What universe is sports on?
The U.S. economy is slowing probably into a second recession. Worldwide, western nations are tip toeing toward default.
Yet, these select few who can hit a curveball or throw a forty-yard spiral claim $20 million a year. Amazing.
Sorry to be a buzz kill, I'm a fan, too. But this is preposterous. Eventually, like this week's government reckoning on the Debt Ceiling, reality will set in. We fans will be unable (or unwilling) to pay the freight for these athletes.
We are living way over our means. In this sector of the economy it's incredibly stark.— yahzooman - That's correct, you are a sorry buzz kill. Try whining on the editorial page next time. — escapedcamden4monterey
Comment removed.- Gelb must have skipped math in high school. Pence (10 mil), Hamels (14 mil), Madson (9 mil) and an additional bullpen arm (3 mil) next year, even with the 3.5 mil in buyouts for Oswalt and Lidge will be cheaper than what we're paying Ibanez (12.1 mil), Hamels (9.5 mil), Oswalt (roughly 9 mil, Astros paying the rest), Lidge (11.5 mil), Madson (4.8 mil) and Baez (2.75 mil) this year. So that's 39.5 mil for next year for that group compared to 49.65 mil for that group this season. So explain how acquiring Pence makes balancing the Phils budget HARDER??? We're already down 10 mil right there. A bench of Martinez, Mayberry, Francisco or a comparable OF, Gload or a comparable guy and Schneider or a comparable guy won't be any more expensive than it is this year, the bench is a wash. They obviously won't be spending major money on the bench but name any team in the majors that has an all-star coming off their bench. That's silly, they don't need to spend extra money on their bench. So the other returning guys have raises of 10.5 mil (Lee), 1 mil (Polanco), 1 mil (Ruiz) and 2 mil (Victorino) for a total of 14.5 mil with Halladay, Howard, Utley, Blanton and Contreras having no raise. So we saved 10 mil on the other group and now we're up 14.5 mil in raising for returning guys. That puts us at plus 4.5 mil. Rollins made 8.5 mil and will not (and should not) receive any significant raise and if he leaves, we'll get a replacement cheaper than that. No more than 9 mil for Rollins. So we're looking at basically a 5 mil increase in salary for next season IF we add a 3 mil guy to the bullpen and re-sign Madson. You're estimating an 8 mil increase in the luxury tax based on prior history so it should be at least 5 mil. Budget balanced, World Series class roster intact. Your math analysis is as bad as your baseball analysis, lol.— JimG
- Comment removed.
- Looking forward to seeing this deployment of Hunter Pence. Play Ball!— Nostromo
- What is nice to know about the payroll is that Phillies management is not afraid to spend some money. I don't know how many times over the past 64 years we have heard about there not being a dime in the coffers. One thing necessary to a team's being able to make money is the presentation of a team that is LEGITIMATELY able to COMPETE! Shouldn't have to win every year, but COMPETE!— BEMiller
I don't what to say other than - I'M SO HAPPY I COULD $#!+!!!!
GO PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!- Could another club with a short fence be interested in Howard? He'll never hurt the Phils pitching, just pitch him tight as long as he keeps that right foot where it is now.— Lew Klein
- Rollins will be back, even if he's making over value -- his current contract was very team-friendly. There is a dearth of quality shortstops out there. Look what JJ Hardy got. And those who are saying to go after Reyes -- wake up! As soon as he gets paid his AVG will drop 70 points. He's not a Phillies type of player -- takes too many plays off, he's injury-prone, and that diva schtick won't fly in this clubhouse.
Yeah, Blanton's contract is a millstone, but he got the going rate for dependable, innings-eating, 4.00 ERA, 3-4 starters. He'd never been on the DL at the time, so there was no way to predict the medical issues. Doc-Cole-Lee-Vance-Joe will be a quality rotation.— ejc527 - JimG must've majored in math. He's spot on. All in all, these type of issues come up when you're in win now mode. I have NO problem with winning now, it's just that unless you're the Yankees, there are deals with the devil that have to be made. I'll gladly take the downside of winning championships. After all, we had all of the downside for years and years without any of the trophies.— HorshamGuy
- the blanton, ibanez and moyer contracts have really hurt the phils the last few years....you could argue year #3 for polanco and year #2 for contreras were mistakes too....
i tend to think its a Rollins or Madson situation for next year...hard to see them both here next year— jim715 - Well, they won't have to worry about Hamels if he goes to arbitration. He'll get the 14 mil in 2012 and then look for him to start the FA bidding war between NYY and the Red Sox. He won't be in a Phillies uniform in 2013 so that should free up payroll going forward. It amazes me that they would not sign him to a long term extension since he was such a key part of the WS team but Amaro has other ideas and the team doesn't really seem to get up to play when Hamels pitches.— re6035
