Pence and the payroll
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Pence and the payroll
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
On Saturday night, Hunter Pence is expected to take his place in right field at Citizens Bank Park, a spot he will man for the next three seasons. He is a Phillie through 2013 because of his two remaining arbitration years. That's why Ruben Amaro Jr. said he was willing to surrender his top two prospects to attain him.
"It's a huge element in it," Amaro said. "He's under 30. He has a lot of energy. He's a guy our fans will take to very well. Control is a big part. I don't like rentals. I don't believe in those."
That doesn't mean Pence will come cheap. He is making $6.9 million in 2011. He made $3.5 million in 2010, his first year of arbitration. Because of his early call-up in 2007, Pence achieved Super Two status, granting him one early year of arbitration. Basically, he's in the same category as Cole Hamels, although the Phllies bought out three of Hamels' arbitration years with a long-term extension before the 2009 season.
Houston has gone year-to-year with Pence and it remains to be seen whether the Phillies will do the same. If they do, he'll be due a significant raise through the arbitration process in 2012. Let's say, for the sake of accounting, that it is a similar raise to the one he made from 2010 to 2011. That puts Pence at $10 million for 2012.
He would be the fifth $10 million man already on the 2012 Phillies payroll.
To review, the Phillies have already committed $106.95 million to nine players for 2012.
| Cliff Lee | $21.5 MIL |
| Roy Halladay | $20 MIL |
| Ryan Howard | $20 MIL |
| Chase Utley | $15 MIL |
| Shane Victorino | $9.5 MIL |
| Joe Blanton | $8.5 MIL |
| Placido Polanco | $6.25 MIL |
| Carlos Ruiz | $3.7 MIL |
| Jose Contreras | $2.5 MIL |
Lee's salary increases by $10 million from 2011 to 2012. Victorino has a $2 million raise from 2011 to 2012. Ruiz's and Polanco's is $1 million each.
So yeah, while the Phillies have $23 million coming off the books in Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, it is offset by $14 million in raises, plus the $1.5 million for Lidge's buyout.
That doesn't include arbitration for Hamels, who is making $9.5 million in 2011 and could earn a killing. (Even if it's through a long-term extension.) He'll be the sixth $10 million man.
Then there's Roy Oswalt, who has a $16 million mutual option with a $2 million buyout. And the Phillies have four other arbitration-eligible piayers, all of whom could be non-tendered: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, Wilson Valdez and Scott Mathieson.
So for our purposes, we'll assume a $14 million salary for Hamels in 2012 and $10 million for Pence. We will decline Oswalt's option, along with Lidge's.
| Cliff Lee | $21.5 MIL |
| Roy Halladay | $20 MIL |
| Ryan Howard | $20 MIL |
| Chase Utley | $15 MIL |
| Cole Hamels | $14 MIL |
| Hunter Pence | $10 MIL |
| Shane Victorino | $9.5 MIL |
| Joe Blanton | $8.5 MIL |
| Placido Polanco | $6.25 MIL |
| Carlos Ruiz | $3.7 MIL |
| Jose Contreras | $2.5 MIL |
| Roy Oswalt | $2 MIL |
| Brad Lidge | $1.5 MIL |
Now we're up to $134.45 million invested in only 11 active players. (The payments to Oswalt and Lidge are buyouts.) That still leaves:
-- A shortstop: Jimmy Rollins could be the seventh $10 million player. We'd project something like a three-year, $33 million deal to sign him. It could take even more.
-- A closer: Ryan Madson is a free agent and will seek top dollar on the market. Will a budget crunch force the Phillies to think about using Antonio Bastardo as closer?
-- A fifth starter: Blanton is on there, but we're unsure what his condition will be come spring. Vance Worley will make less than $500,000. He'll be in the rotation.
-- A left fielder: This should be Domonic Brown. He'll also make less than $500,000.
-- Another bullpen arm: There's Bastardo, Michael Stutes and... ? Contreras is under contract, but what is his health situation? Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont and Michael Schwimer could represent the next wave of young arms. But the Phillies probably want a veteran or two for depth.
-- An entire bench: Brian Schneider and Ross Gload are free agents. They're likely gone. They made a combined $3.1 million in 2011 and we've seen what that money can buy. So for an upgrade, it costs. Ben Francisco made $1.18 million in his first year of arbitration. He'd get a raise if they tender a contract.
***
The good news (sort of) for the Phillies: The luxury tax threshold rises every season. In 2009, it was $162 million. In 2010 it was $170 million. This season, it's $178 million. A comparable increase puts it around $186 million in 2012. (Again, that's an assumption especially because a new collective bargaining agreement this winter could contain different proposals.)
Pence's addition provides Amaro and his people with "cost certainty" -- the buzz phrase used two winters ago when they inked Blanton, Victorino and Ruiz to long-term deals covering arbitration years. It takes away their need to scour the free-agent market for a corner outfielder. They know Pence is probably due around $10 million in 2012 and approximately $13 million in 2013.
But it doesn't make balancing the budget any easier.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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What a team!!!!!!!!! Good information.— shawnmac- Worley for Blanton. Let Madson go. Let Herndon go. Let Contreras go. Play the kids.
As far as Brown goes, he's developed wall-shyness and an unwillingness to lay himself out to make a play.
Someone needs to get in his ear soon or he will carry that intimidation into the batters box [which is already happening].— ngfs66 
Comment removed.- Thanks for spelling this out. It illustrates the cost advantages (I'd say cost necessities) of having Brown and Worley as starters in 2012. This is the reality of running the organization.— quaker00
- Astute observation about the roles that Worley and Brown will play, and their impact on the payroll, going forward. — Dave in Cincy
- Thanks for spelling this out. It illustrates the cost advantages (I'd say cost necessities) of having Brown and Worley as starters in 2012. This is the reality of running the organization.— quaker00
- Just a thought, why not let Pence continue to hit cleanup and let Ryan hit 5th.— Andrewsgvl
- That would be a slap in the face to Howard and Cholly isn't going to do that. Not saying that it's not a good idea that's just the reality of the situation. — F. Harry Stowe
- Great analysis, Matt. I'm most worried about Madson, J-Roll, and Hamels. I'd like to sign Jimmy to a deal like you mentioned because we have no suitable replacement and consistently producing SS like Rollins are hard to come by. Hope for a hometown discount?
Similar thoughts apply to Madson; he could get big bucks on the FA market and might end up out of our price range. I'm actually fine with Bastardo as closer, and maybe we can sign Lidge back on the cheap if he performs well and he can be our 7th inning guy. I see the bullpen being: Bastardo, Stutes, Lidge, Contreras, Kendrick (good as long man), then maybe a veteran lefty and one of Schwimmer/Aumont/De Fratus.
As for starters, you gotta sign Hamels long-term ASAP. It'll save you money in the long run and keep him under control; he'll make a ton in arbitration since he'll probably win the Cy Young this year. Blanton you just hope can recover, and if not, hope he retires so you have his money to spend elsewhere.
As for the bench, you have John Mayberry and Micheal Martinez as back-ups, plus I'd tender Wilson Valdez a contract. Let Francisco walk, find a catcher, then another pinch-hitter type to replace Gload.
Things aren't looking too bad! Let's not fret.— ss2player - Comment removed.
- One reason we could still see a move for a reliever is Madson's impending free agency. Bastardo may be ready to close but that's a big jump with no one as backup. If Contreras had stayed healthy that might have factored into the equation but I don't think you can factor him in right now. I think they'll either find a way to re-sign Mad Dog or we'll see a move for another reliever before next season. JRoll is the maybe the most interesting one. I think they'll have to sign him but the question, I think, is contract years. I can't see them signing him to more than 2-3 years and someone else could blow him away with a longer term deal. It's too early to lose JRoll unless they can somehow land a Reyes type player.
Worley isn't a lock for the 2012 rotation. A lot depends on what Oswalt does after this year. Blanton's under contract for another year and is currently untradeable due to being on the DL. Assuming he's okay by spring training he's going to be in the rotation. Fans may not like that but the Phillies are not going to pay a guy 8.5 million to sit at home. Even if you want him traded he has to play for someone to be interested.
— s - Zero chance Oswalt is here next year.
No one os throwing a huge contract at J-Roll. He signs for 3 years at 9 million per.
Madson needs to be signed.
To the guy who says bat Pence 4th. Get off this board and go back to playing babies.— ccheung - I should also clarify my thoughts on Oswalt: I think it's likely he decides to retire. Those odds go way up if we win another WS. If he doesn't retire I'm not so sure the Phillies don't give him another year. A lot depends on that back of his. I would put the overall odds on him not being back.
— s - Who cares about the payroll? We went through 30 years of them spending nothing and drawing no fans. They learned if you put out a good product people will pay to see it. They are taking in plenty— Ssteve115
- 33 mill for 3 years of J-roll is an overpay at this point of his career. He'd be lucky to get the 8.5 per year he's currently making.— wolfpack
