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Sunday, April 5, 2009

Happy opening night. It will be nice to see more competitive tension in the games, though spring training, with its races for roster spots and the fifth spot in the starting rotation, did not lack intensity. When people say that the games will finally start to matter tonight, I think: haven’t they mattered to Chan Ho Park, J.A. Happ, Miguel Cairo, Marcus Giles and many others already? Now, though, they will matter in the standings.

Which leads to Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections, which have the Phillies narrowly missing the playoffs. For those unfamiliar with the system, see this profile I wrote about its mathmaster Nate Silver last year (you may remember him for projecting Obama’s win over McCain with frightening precision).
 
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Also, we begin the season-long competition for best blog response of the week. As Inquirer readers know, I’ll be running one piece of intelligent analysis with my Sunday Phillies column each week. So get yourselves in regular-season shape. Commentors who sign their first and last names to opinions will be given preference, but the system is not absolute. If FOOFOOFAAFAA87 offers something brilliant, well, he/she may find their comment in the paper. But wouldn’t you rather see your name in print?
Posted by Andy Martino @ 11:54 AM  Permalink | 9 comments
9
Comments   
Posted 01:10 PM, 04/05/2009
gbrettfan
I expect the Phils to give us another good run; winning again, even making it to the postseason, would be terrific, but I realize a certain amount of luck is involved with that. And I'm glad there's enough competition in baseball that different teams win. Still and all, wouldn't that be something for them to repeat? Good luck, Phils, we'll be rootin' for ya!
Posted 02:36 PM, 04/05/2009
mick314
PECOTA is FUBAR
Posted 05:33 PM, 04/05/2009
EL Zorro
Come on Andy, my dog and lonewolf would’ve beaten McCain.
Posted 05:55 PM, 04/05/2009
yahmpy
Nobody likes us, and we don't care. Go ahead Phillies, Repeat in 2009.
Comment removed.
Posted 06:45 PM, 04/05/2009
JimG
El Zorro...that's hilarious...love it. By the way, is there any other sport that brings math dorks crawling out of the woodwork more than baseball? Don't think so.
Posted 06:59 PM, 04/05/2009
mick314
Yes there is JimG, its called ring toss trig, second only to darts calculus. The uniforms must include pocket protectors.
Posted 05:13 PM, 04/06/2009
Joe D from WD
I'm convinced that PECOTA is just Bill Pecota who is still bitter about being the last out of the 1993 NLCS.
Posted 04:56 PM, 06/12/2009
MarkJones
I expect the Phils to give us another good run; winning again, even making it to the postseason, would be terrific, but I realize a certain amount of luck is involved with that. And I'm glad there's enough competition in baseball that different teams win. Still and all, wouldn't that be something for them to repeat? Good luck, Phils, we'll be rootin' for ya! --------- MarkJones --------- adelaide mortgage broker--adelaide mortgage broker
About Andy Martino
Andy Martino is in his first season on the Phillies beat. A former New York City public school teacher and graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, he previously wrote for the New York Daily News, where he covered baseball and worked with the award-winning investigative sports "I-team."
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