One pitching trend to watch
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
One pitching trend to watch
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
There isn't much to say because a lot of it has already been said. It's Game 5. It's Halladay. It's Carpenter. It's the entire weight of a city's expectations on nine innings (or more) of baseball.
And you could study the largest sample sizes possible to make predictions or statements, but none of that matters in a decisive game. It's the smallest of margins and things will happen that defy previous trends.
But one particular stat jumped out when combing through the various splits and numbers of Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Much, of course, has been made of Halladay's woes against the first batter of the game. During the regular season, the first batter reached base in 15 of Halladay's 32 starts. Leadoff batters in any innings hit .317/.343/.436 off Halladay.
And any baseball person would say, "No duh." Getting the first batter out is key. But when you inspect Halladay's numbers, it's even more conducive to success.
Here are opponents' numbers by out against Halladay:
| Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 outs | 32 | 345 | 322 | 13 | 97 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 72 | .301 | .324 | .391 | .716 |
| 1 out | 32 | 301 | 279 | 31 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 62 | .229 | .254 | .258 | .512 |
| 2 outs | 32 | 287 | 271 | 19 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 86 | .173 | .220 | .277 | .496 |
Conversely, Carpenter is worse with more outs. First batters reached only six times in his 32 starts. And leadoff batters overall hit .217/.250/.291. But Carpenter has a tougher time finishing innings.
| Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 outs | 34 | 326 | 308 | 19 | 71 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 61 | .231 | .259 | .305 | .564 |
| 1 out | 34 | 345 | 309 | 35 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 61 | .272 | .330 | .362 | .693 |
| 2 outs | 34 | 325 | 304 | 40 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 69 | .289 | .335 | .414 | .750 |
So if Halladay is consistently recording the first out without damage, it's a sign things could go very well for the pitcher given his history. Then again, maybe a Cardinal lashes a two-out solo home run and the Phillies lose, 1-0. Anything can happen because it's Game 5.
One last tidbit: Halladay is 45-18 with a 2.59 ERA in 84 career games started with an extra day of rest. In 2011, he was 7-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 10 starts with an extra day.
He'll pitch Game 5 with an extra day.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Download our NEW iPhone/Android app for easy access to all of our Phillies coverage, plus app-exclusive videos and analysis. Get it here.
As many have said before, Halladay is the area of least concern. It's a shame this juvenile offense places the expectation of a near shutout on his shoulders in order to win.— n62- The pitching trend I'm most worried about is the strike zone. In game 4 the Cardinals pitchers got a ton of leeway low and outside to Phillies lefties, while the Phillies pitchers got squeezed everywhere but the high strikezone. The strike zone early can have a huge impact on a pitchers approach, letting him know he has less or more to work with.— Pelti
- Nervous as H— shawnmac
Petti has a good point- this ump crew has not been great this series. Different strike zones that tend to morph throughout the game, though it mostly has gone for both teams.— verve- Actually, in games 1 and 3 the strike zones were pretty good. In game 2, they started good but then let La Russa whine his way to a better strikezone for both his pitchers and batters. In game 4 Angel Hernandez, murdered the Phillies lefties by calling strikes almost a foot outside, or inches low, and was calling balls on Oswalt when he hit the same spots.
— Pelti - Getting ready to head down to CBP; very confident, I believe Doc will deliver! Shame his teammates put him in this position!!!!— JBinPA
- put mayberry at first, valdez/dobbs at 3rd, and francisco in left.— chadp1234
- Maybe Rolen or Schmidt instead of Dobbs?? — bluehaha
- chadp1234, any commenter who thinks the Phillies should play Dobbs tonight should be banished from the site. Anybody who can remotely call themselves a Phillies fan would understand why.— Phils Phan 28
- Just win, 8 run lead with some crooked innings would make me feel better.
Howard is key. we need a game 1 encore.
BIG PIECE, time is NOW— WFChamps - Change the lineup back now.
roll/vic/ut/strikeout/pence/ibby/polly chooch
Howard will see better pitches with Pence 5th, make the change.— WFChamps - Both of these pitchers have the death stare, and I'm feelng like the zone may be huge for them...Cards will probably be looking to get at Roy early in the count as he pounds the strike zone...He'll be on his game with no mistakes, but Carpenter is a tough nut to crack...It'll just be that more fun when we prevail!— bearsfriend
- Dobbs at 3rd? Huh? What year are you living in?— BobbyD
- The guy who said Dobbs at 3rd is probably the same game who was looking for Ritchie and Carts at the Flyers game last night!— atsipras
- Put me-Manny Trillo at third- I can still play- leave Dobbs on the bench. (the Marlins bench)— Manny Trillo
