One pitching trend to watch

There isn't much to say because a lot of it has already been said. It's Game 5. It's Halladay. It's Carpenter. It's the entire weight of a city's expectations on nine innings (or more) of baseball.

One pitching trend to watch

Roy Halladay will start Game 5 of the NLDS against Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)

Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer

Posted: Friday, October 7, 2011, 12:30 PM

There isn't much to say because a lot of it has already been said. It's Game 5. It's Halladay. It's Carpenter. It's the entire weight of a city's expectations on nine innings (or more) of baseball.

And you could study the largest sample sizes possible to make predictions or statements, but none of that matters in a decisive game. It's the smallest of margins and things will happen that defy previous trends.

But one particular stat jumped out when combing through the various splits and numbers of Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Much, of course, has been made of Halladay's woes against the first batter of the game. During the regular season, the first batter reached base in 15 of Halladay's 32 starts. Leadoff batters in any innings hit .317/.343/.436 off Halladay.

And any baseball person would say, "No duh." Getting the first batter out is key. But when you inspect Halladay's numbers, it's even more conducive to success.

Here are opponents' numbers by out against Halladay:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 outs	32	345	322	13	97	15	1	4	10	72	.301	.324	.391	.716
1 out	32	301	279	31	64	6	1	0	10	62	.229	.254	.258	.512
2 outs	32	287	271	19	47	6	2	6	15	86	.173	.220	.277	.496

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Conversely, Carpenter is worse with more outs. First batters reached only six times in his 32 starts. And leadoff batters overall hit .217/.250/.291. But Carpenter has a tougher time finishing innings.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 outs	34	326	308	19	71	6	1	5	11	61	.231	.259	.305	.564
1 out	34	345	309	35	84	15	2	3	25	61	.272	.330	.362	.693
2 outs	34	325	304	40	88	12	1	8	19	69	.289	.335	.414	.750

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

So if Halladay is consistently recording the first out without damage, it's a sign things could go very well for the pitcher given his history. Then again, maybe a Cardinal lashes a two-out solo home run and the Phillies lose, 1-0. Anything can happen because it's Game 5.

One last tidbit: Halladay is 45-18 with a 2.59 ERA in 84 career games started with an extra day of rest. In 2011, he was 7-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 10 starts with an extra day.

He'll pitch Game 5 with an extra day.

Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.

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