On the playoff roster and rotation
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On the playoff roster and rotation
Andy Martino
You feelin’ it yet? That playoff buzz? How do I know if it’s working?
There are so many reasons why this is a fun time of year, especially if you follow a championship-caliber team. All the questions surrounding the Phillies since spring training have involved their chances of repeating, and now they will finally have the chance to try. Playoff baseball, especially during the division series, feels almost like college football—one loss, one play even, can determine a team’s entire year.
The Phillies drew a favorable matchup with Colorado, despite the Rockies strong play to finish the season. Colorado simply does not hit lefthanded pitching, a good thing for a team with lefties Hamels, Lee and (maybe) Happ in the rotation. It would be a better thing for the Phillies if J.C. Romero were around, but he ain’t.
The Phillies, of course, have a lot of pretty good lefty hitters, and Colorado’s best lefty starter, Jorge De La Rosa, came up with a groin injury Saturday. His status for the series is undetermined, and that would be a huge loss for the Rox. Ryan Howard, one of the only Phillies who remembered how to use his bat on a regular basis in September, is a career .226 hitter against LHP; .303 versus RHP.
Now for the roster and rotation. The Phils do not have to announce anything until 10am Wednesday, but will probably notify us of their decisions today or tomorrow. Charlie Manuel said yesterday he was thinking about going with 11 pitchers to make room for the hot-hitting and experienced Miguel Cairo. The position players would be:
--Cairo, Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Eric Bruntlett, Carlos Ruiz, Paul Bako, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Matt Stairs.
In writing a piece for Wednesday’s paper about the bench, I realized that it ain’t as bad as you think—but it could be better. Dobbs is hurt, says he won’t be better until the offseason. Jason Giambi and Jim Thome were available this summer as lefty pinch hitters, and the Phils front office did not believe that they needed to upgrade that position. It’s hard to dump Stairs, because of his on-base skills and power potential, but why not bring in a guy like Giambi and allow Dobbs to heal for next year?
I know, I know, Dobbs plays third base. But so does Miguel Cairo. There was more than one way to put this thing together, is all I’m sayin.
Ben Francisco represents the brighter side of things on the bench. A talented hitter and smart acquisition, Francisco allows Charlie Manuel to DH Raul Ibanez in a potential World Series.
***
And what about the pitching? I was on Comcast’s playoff preview show with Mitch Williams last night, and he surprised me with his certainty that Cliff Lee would start Game 1. I think it will be, and should be, Cole Hamels.
Mitch’s point was that Hamels threw 47 pitches on Saturday, and would never go on three days rest. That’s true, he wouldn’t. But 47 pitches is a side session, not a game, and Hamels was a better pitcher in September than Lee. Frankly, Lee looks gassed after throwing more innings this season than he has in his life. Joe Blanton, after a workhorse year, is also a concern in the rotation.
Manuel likes to go with guys he has seen succeed in a given situation. And Hamels has done well as a postseason ace. Apologies to Wild Thing, I still believe it will be Hamels on Wednesday. Could it be Lee? Sure.
Then comes the mystery of J.A. Happ’s role. Yes, they need a lefty in the bullpen. But should it be your most consistent starter? I believe that Phils brass decided about a week ago to move Happ to the playoff pen, and are now reconsidering. Let’s put it this way: Based on reporting and hunches, I won’t be shocked if Happ is a reliever this week, and I’ll be only mildly shocked if he starts Game 4 or even earlier. A lot of options are being considered with regards to Happ.
As far as the bullpen goes, I do not believe Sergio Escalona and Antonio Bastardo will make the team—unless Happ is in the rotation. Manuel basically said yesterday that the two young lefties are not ready, but still might be there because the team’s thin bullpen.
So we are left to consider Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, Kyle Kendrick, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Tyler Walker, Happ and Pedro Martinez as possibilities for the bullpen (Martinez could also start a Game 4, but the opponent makes that less likely).
Durbin may have used a strong Sept. to win a spot. Condrey, Walker, Kendrick and Myers are all bubble guys. I would personally leave Myers off, because he is the biggest health question and has not been able to solve the closer problems. To me, Walker, Durbin and Condrey are all more valuable at this moment, because of health.
***
And what about the ninth inning? The following may cause you to experience a sudden aneurysm or stroke, but if Hamels or Lee leaves after seven with a lead Wednesday, I’ll bet Manuel goes with Madson-to-Lidge. Lidge will have the shortest of leashes, but he’s you Game 1 closer. If that doesn’t go well, it’s closer-by-committee.
Yes, there are issues. Who knows how far this thing goes? But whether it ends this weekend or in November, let’s enjoy the intensity.
Keep checking in for updates.
I love Charlie giving Lidge the last out to clinch the division, but that's where it should end: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_ujg1t19j8— bobby
Happ deserves a start. Madson can close. This is getting interesting. And exciting.— spinmeister- Stair's "on base skills"? Huh? Quick, tell me the last time Stairs was on base? The guy just spent a season living off of one big hit last year. How about telling it like it is, the bench this year is horrendous. Amaro has to reload next year and hope it doesn't come too much into play these playoffs.— JLH
- First, lets not talk about what they could have done in season; who they could have acquired, etc. It's done. This is the roster, let's move on. Second, I saw that piece where Mitch said it would be Lee in Game 1 and I was very surprised, too. I think it should be Hamels; he's pitched a little better lately and he has proven to be a big game pitcher. Third, why is Lidge still a consideration? Even with a short leash? Isn't this the same thing they tried all season and it never got straightened out? On that show last night, and even in this column, people say that with a 3 run lead, Lidge will close. Okay, what no one mentions is that with this short leash, who is going to come in to relieve him? You've theoretically used Madson in the 8th in this scenario and you were hoping Lidge would close in the 9th. Now, you're in trouble in the 9th with no Madson, who do you go to? Besides the obvious with Lidge, this is my biggest problem; writers and pundits saying that they will use Lidge, but have a short leash - but unless you do not use Madson before Lidge, what is your exit strategy when Lidge inevitably implodes? I'd like to hear someone talk about that for a change.— FireChrisWheeler!
- Walker's a journeyman who has returned to form. He's been lit up lately. Keep Myers instead.— farside37
- You can't have your closer on a "short leash." Once you put a guy in to close the game, you have to live or die with him. That's the nature of the job. I love what Lidge did for us last year, but it's not there now. I see him now as a closer of last resort. And I mean REALLY last resort.— bobby
- lidge can go to hell.. They should have a closer by comitte with madson, happ, and myers— lj23
Comment removed.- I will lose faith in the Phils front office and coaching staff if Happ doesn't get a start in this series— royalxc5
- I would go with Lidge. No one else has shown anything better. Closer is a specialty and you can't go with a committee.— capemayfan
- Tyler Walker should NOT be on the playoff roster. The Tyler Walker mirage is over. He's stats have been overstated all year because he's let a high percentage of inherited runners score (finished the season allowing more than half of them score - 11 out of 20) so that isn't reflected in his ERA. Also, he was pitching mostly at garbage time and when the Phils tried to give him a more important role, he put up a 6.52 ERA in September. I would keep Myers, Bastardo, Kendrick, Escalona and pretty much anyone else over Tyler Walker. If Happ starts and Pedro goes to the pen as the long man and emergency starter, then Kendrick isn't needed in the pen. If we're only going with 11 pitchers, then I'd keep Martinez (or Happ), Madson, Lidge, Durbin, Eyre, Condrey and Myers on the playoff roster in the pen. If Happ is going to start though, I'd rather go with 12 pitchers and keep Bastardo on the roster too as an extra lefty. He showed early when he's pumped up, he can hit 95 on the gun. We don't need Cairo and Bruntlett both on the roster.— JimG
- NWFan OFFENSE will determine how Charlie uses his bullpen. This time of year every pitcher should be available.— Ed Koehler
- I wonder about the Stairs comment, also. He has more strikeouts than hits the last month or so, is hitting under the Mendoza line for the season and in the postseason has only 2 hits (and 3 K’s) and a .143 BA in 5 series (three seasons), including the majestic HR off Broxton last year.— EL Zorro
- Phillies lose in 4. Werth gets shipped out for a closer and Francisco starts in right. Lidge gets traded for a tin of chewing tobacco.— thesoothseer
- Lidge lives in Colorado. This will hopefully add to his mojo. IMO his main problem is his four seam fastball was once 95-96 now for whatever reason is now a hittable 93-94. That's why he is no longer "lights out"— Dull
- Happ has gotta be in the starting rotation. Imagine a playoff game, Phils up by one in the ninth, and here comes Brad Lidge....good lord.— p-diddy
- Note to FireChrisWheeler! : I love your handle and echo the sentiment.— Lpaul
- No Francisco? You're nuts. I also think Dobbs will be there, but no Bruntlett.— Ed3
- "Hamels; he's pitched a little better lately and he has proven to be a big game pitcher." Game 2 is much bigger than 1 and that's why Hamels should be pitching it. You can't afford to go down 0-2 at home in a 5-game series.— rudeman
- You left Francisco off your position players.— andwhysee
- the bench is probably the biggest difference between these two teams, the Rockies have 3 starters sitting on their bench. We will probably see a very different line-up every game. ReclinerGM just posted a great NLDS preview, comparing the 2 squads in 10 different areas... http://www.reclinergm.com/2009-nlds-preview-phillies-vs-rockies/— psalveso
- First off I coutn 13 position players mentioned and don't see Ben Francisco's name on the list who is obvious. As for the closer situation...I think it's pretty obvious the first choice should be Lidge. He's had a horrible year, yes. But he was perfect last year (with the help of a couple of great defensive plays) and had a tremendous post-season. I'm betting Lidge is going to have a good post-season. And whoever said it is right...it will be a lot harder to take the ball from Lidge than to give it to him after someone else implodes. Or here's a radical idea...get the starters to pitch 9 innings and you don't need a closer. Bring back real baseball!!— Eilex826
- I am excited, I was getting even more pumped while reading your article until I came across the word "ain't". I have never complained about the writings of an article, but instead of saying isn't, you say ain't. It really makes you sound like you didn't get past 8th grade in school... "It would be a better thing for the Phillies if J.C. Romero were around, but he ain’t". ????— phigglesfan75
- @FireChrisWheeler! An off-topic question: Why fire Chris Wheeler? Just curious, since I think he doesn't hold a candle to LA.— Cheesedog
- Hamels will start game 1, no brainer. 11 pitchers will be Hamels, Lee, Happ, Blanton, Martinez (long option), Lidge, Madosn, Eyre, Durbin, Walker, Condrey.— JBP
- Interesting that last night Hamels was on the Phillies website as their probable starter for Game 1 (along with Jimenez for Colorado), while Lee was listed as starter for Game 2. Then today I look it up (just before I was planning to chastize Martino for not finding this very basic info) and Hamels' name and picture is gone. Cliff Lee is still listed as the starter for game 2 though. Why? It's not like it was originally just following the logical sequence from the rotation order last week (in which case it would have been Lee, then Blanton, then Hamels). Hmmmm.......— betsy72
- potential World Series? They have alot to win before that.— phillysmith
- Francisco was an unintentional omission. I don't why he ain't on there. And check out Stairs' OBP. That's a more important stat than batting average for any player.— Andy Martino
- bullpen is actually a lot easier to set up if you start by putting Lidge in the 9th.— bobbyd24
- Lidge is no longer lights out because he has no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. The sure sign of an elbow on the way out.— Mark1npt
- I am not getting my info from some NY sportswriter. Go back to Yankee town.— BananaHammock
- Yes, Andy OBP is more important than BA, but Stairs job is to drive in runs. Now, if it’s Cairo leading off an inning as a PH, that's another story. Stairs is having problems catching up to fastballs since the All Star break or so, and that’s a problem, because he can’t hit the breaking stuff. Maybe he needs glasses and/or age caught up with him all of a sudden.— EL Zorro
- KK has the best era on the club on the last month or since he came back up from the minors. He has experience and he is healthy. To me is better then Walker or Condrey now.— pattymac3
- Madson looked fine to me at closer with most of his opportunites in the past four weeks. I can live with the hiccup against the Mets and Wright. But, why in the world would you let Lidge touch a baseball in the postseason, given the evidence, unless you enjoy watching a disaster.— arrowamy
- Wait, why did you leave off Ben Francisco?— bark
- [bark: Wait, why did you leave off Ben Francisco?] This was already addressed. Try to keep up.— jman
- I have faith that anyone put in the game by Charlie will bust his gt to win. If it doesn't happen......that's baseball. Luv ya for what you've done Fightin's!— TBear
- I think Manuel has to go with Lidge as the closer. It's not lights out but it's our best chance at success in the post season. Everything is reset to zero. I have convinced myself to forget about the regular season and I think Lidge will, too. Have FAITH Phillies fans! BTW - I think "on base skills" meant Stairs' ability to get on base (must have meant walks, too).— vafan
- "Wild Thing" deserves no apologies.— scottash
- Andy will provide an update as soon as Murphy revises his column.— jman
- Andy, Above you state: "It’s hard to dump Stairs, because of his on-base skills and power potential" On base skills? Care to rephrase? One must first reach base before one claims to have on base skills.— scootch
- Andy..you said... And check out Stairs' OBP. That's a more important stat than batting average for any player. Since All-Star braeak...OBP = 0.264. Yuck.— scootch
- Matt Stairs 2009 OBP: .357..........Greg Dobbs 2009 OBP: .296
- FireChrisWheeler wondered who would back up Lidge should he implode. While it assumes Madson would have been used, I would think that would put Myers in that spot. I'm not sold on Lidge getting closing opportunities just because he threw the final pitch of the clincher. Charlie might select spots based on matchups, but you won't see him blindly used on the road in a 1 run game against just anyone. A couple people have generously said they think Lidge will close. If Lidge blows a save in game 1, can you imagine the reaction? That's a lot of pressure.— KBland
- Andy Martino "aint" bad. Great job. I see you have followed Dave's habit of lonp informative posts. Love reading them. And fire chris wheeler is a dream that will never come true. He has pics of the executives in compromising positions. That is the ONLY explanation possible for that hack having a job.— phillyjeffsr
- JLH: Shane Victorino had an on base percentage of :358 this season. Matt Stairs was right behind him at :357. Stairs has mad "on base" skills.— woodyinc
- Myers is not ready, go with Walker instead. Walker bashers are everywhere but the guy is a solid performern, who may have been overworked recently, but will benefit from past few days of rest. Condrey is scary and Durbin is steadfast in his opposition to a 1-2-3 inning.— mick314
- You're leaving Dobbs off the postseason roster? Is he hurt that badly?— Neal Obstat
- Im afraid Charlie will go to Lidge. Iprefer Madson because of much better control, Ryan throws strikes and has the ability. Lidge is out of sync. Brad overthrows his fastball and opens his shoulder. I feel he can fix this and come back next year, also we seldom see that killer slider.— Don w
