On Domonic Brown
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On Domonic Brown
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
(Wilfredo Lee/AP)
The most fascinating thing about the public referendum on Domonic Brown is that we have no idea if this same debate is taking place within the walls that matter, the room where Ruben Amaro Jr. and his lieutenants are assessing the Phillies needs in the current trade market.
There are indications the Phillies have considered trading Brown. Teams are definitely asking for him. They were certainly not willing to deal Brown for a rental player like Carlos Beltran, and few would disagree with that choice. They could be willing to move Brown for a young, controllable outfielder like Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin. Or maybe they aren't. Maybe they haven't decided. Maybe it's not even a factor.
Still, the current debate has just about divided a fan base (from what I can tell). The Trade Brown! camp has made its voice clear: He has yet to prove anything. He is a liability in the field. He hasn't hit for power. He's taking up a spot that's needed for a righthanded bat.
The Keep Brown! people stress patience. He is 23 years old. He was the only untouchable in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball, so why trade him now? This lineup is the oldest in baseball and the last thing the Phillies should do is trade their youngest regular. He has shown flashes of greatness, albeit only flashes.
Really, everything centers around this principle: Are the Phillies willing to live with the inconsistency of a 23-year-old rookie in a pennant race because of the great upside that lies ahead?
If you follow me on Twitter (@magelb), you'll know that I fall squarely in the Keep Brown! team. Truthfully, my answer to the current issue lies in the middle. Yes, the Phillies should keep Brown, but they should acquire a bat not in the ilk of Pence or Quentin. Instead, with the best and perfereable option already off the market in Carlos Beltran, the Phillies should now focus on acquiring a righthanded complement to both Brown and Raul Ibanez. More in the Reed Johnson, Ryan Ludwick, Josh Willingham mold. They provide stability and a minor upgrade -- all that is currently needed.
Hunter Pence is a really nice player. He is. But his strikeouts are up. His walk rate is painfully low. He has two fewer home runs than Ibanez. His batting average on balls in play is a staggering .367, which means luck has greatly contributed to a .307 batting average.
Carlos Quentin is attractive, too. He is slugging .510 and that would instantly be the second best on these Phillies, behind only Shane Victorino. His on-base percentage is fueled by 20 hit by pitches and his walk rate isn't spectacular, but acceptable. His .913 OPS against lefthanded pitching is enticing.
Brown is five years younger than both Pence and Quentin. Those two are indisputably better players currently than Brown. They would cost a great deal to acquire, but their instant value would be important.
But Brown's upside is beyond Pence and Quentin. They are entering their prime at 28, and both have impressive numbers. They are not stars. Brown can be a star.
Domonic Brown has played 87 games in the majors. Eighty-seven. That is no sample size to make judgments about the future. If anything, those 87 games have shown the great promise of Brown. (By the way, some guy named Mike Schmidt once hit .197 with a .690 OPS in his first 145 games. He turned out OK.)
From last season to this, Brown has already improve his plate discipline. He leads the team with 4.08 pitches per plate appearance. He is walking 12.4 percent of the time, a greater rate than Pence or Quentin have ever had -- in the majors or minors.
Why do walks matter? Well, for one, it means Brown is on base. His OBP has improved nearly 90 points from his brief time last season. He is not chasing as many balls as before. He is waiting for his pitch, which is a great predicate of success. Charlie Manuel will often say good hitting can only happen when you have a good ball to hit. Sounds silly, but it's not so easy. The tendency is for younger players to chase more, to force success out of a pitch that will not create it.
And no, Brown is not hitting for power yet. Manuel was asked Wednesday about Brown's approach at the plate and he commended his patience. Then, he noted, that Brown seems to be fouling off a lot of those pitches to hit.
Here's another thing to remember: Phillies executives said Brown's power would be the last thing to develop. It typically is with most prospects. But then Brown fractured the hamate bone in his right hand and missed most of spring training. Hand and wrist injuries will sap power, and while players can return within weeks of the injury, power is said to fully regenerate later.
The criticism of Brown's fielding reached a fever pitch Wednesday when he misplayed a ball that led to San Francisco's second and decisive run. There is no disputing Brown's shortcomings in right field. But there is no question that his athleticism, with time and instruction, cannot make him into at least an average fielder. (Advanced defensive metrics rate Quentin below average, and in recent years, among the worst outfielders in the majors. Pence is above average.)
The worst argument to trading Brown I've heard is that the Phillies' window is closing and they must win now. For sure, they have to win now. They invested $175 million in this team and that is why they should seek to improve at the trade deadline.
But trading Brown only negatively affects the proverbial window. If you deal him for another outfielder like Pence or Quentin, you still need to acquire another corner outfielder this winter once Ibanez leaves. Now you're paying your right fielder upwards of $9 or $10 million instead of the $450,000 Brown will make in 2012. And left field is still vacant. On top of contractual issues with Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Madson and expanding salaries for current signed players, it doesn't all fit. That's how your window collapses.
Then people will say, "You can't win a World Series with a rookie or young player in a crucial position." Well, there was Buster Posey in 2010. And Melky Cabrera in 2009, Cole Hamels in 2008, Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007, Yadier Molina in 2006, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis in 2003, Francisco Rodriguez in 2002 and the list goes on and on.
Domonic Brown bats seventh and plays right field. The Phillies will not win or lose a World Series because of him.
Can they add a righthanded bat to platoon in left and right field and hope he catches fire a la Cody Ross? Sure. Can they fortify the bullpen with a veteran arm? Sure.
None of that involves trading Domonic Brown, which at this point, is an unnecessary and reactionary move. And for all we know, the Phillies agree.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Comments (130)
Excellent analysis, Matt. This is my position as well.— tightlines- Great article Matt. I was curious to see what Schmidt did in his first 98 or so games as well, thanks for giving the first 145!— ESFjellin
- he batted .196 and hit 18 home runs...apples and oranges though..the phillies of 73 were horrible...this team is not.
- Ok fine then try 30 years later. 2003 Phillies had a 24 year old Chase Utley batting .239 with a .696 OPS while playing subpar defense. They passed on an opportunity to deal him for Barry Zito.
With 2 weeks left in the season, Phils held the Wild Card and proceeded to lost 7 of 8 and miss the postseason. Chase Utley went on to become the best 2B in baseball within just 2 years.
Same situation as now. Only difference is the Phils were fighting for a postseason berth. These Phils are all but guaranteed a spot. Perfect situation to allow a rookie to grow and develop. A rookie btw who has a .749 OPS and is holding his own with the bat.— Chewy59 - Joe "Nickles" Banner— BringBackBowa
Brown doesn't bust it to First doesn't bust it to balls in Outfield and makes too many Dumb Plays in Field and basepaths.... Relacitrant in fixing Hole in his Swing Uncoachable.. Rollins Type attitude without pedigree.— Kevinmac- He is coachable but the great ones just react to situations not think first then react. Just watch him and you see him hesitating or freezing for a split second on every play. Same thing after making contact at the plate. When he hears the crowd noise rising when he is batting he starts to smile while waiting for the pitch. All of these things show his head is not in the game.It is hard to adjust to the SHOW and he just doesn't appear ready yet. It is not so much as "not busting it" as much as it is reacting instinctively and I don't think you can teach that.
— DUDESKINS - The great ones just react because of thousands of hours of training and practice. Utley looked the same exact way as a rookie. Now look at him. Andruw Jones is one of the best defensive CF of all time. But as a rookie he looked kind of lost in the outfield at times.
None of this shows his head is not in the game. It just shows he is still a little raw and rough around the edges. It will become second nature the more he is around and the more he works on it.— Chewy59 - Matt, I don't tweet, but here you go...Dom Brown has been highly touted since he showed bat speed galore at Lakewood...Scouts fall in love with "high end" prospects, often looking at an offensive ceiling and passing him thru the system (like students in the PSD)...He lacks polish in the field,on the bases, and has a large gaping hole in his swing...keeping his hands way too high, and late on oh so many +90 fastballs...While he has a good eye at the plate, his offensive prowess probably won't (if at all) for a year or two,minimum.....Again, with our limited time of a max window fo WS opportunity, using him in a deal can get you a high end option...Now that the Brass is building confidence in Mayberry Jr. as an option to platoon/replace Raul in situations, why should any deal for Brown be restricted to a Rh hitter?...How about Brown and a baby Ace for Logan Morrison?...Pence would be great, but there are other options for a corner outfielder if it's not restricted...— bearsfriend
- The question isn't whether Dom Brown will be a good player someday...the question is whether he's the best possible outfielder we can possibly have , offensively and defensively, when we try to win the World Series...When he's 28, Roy will be 38 and Cliff 37, I like our chances better now!— bearsfriend
- And some combination of Cosart, Colvin, Biddle and May will be the core of the pitching staff then. If the Phillies foolishly trade away their entire farm right now then yes they will suck in 5 years and the same people demanding the trade now will be complaining about how Amaro mismanaged the team then.
Or they could realize that Pence is only a marginal upgrade and not a difference maker. They can hold onto to their Baby Aces and rising position players. They could reload on the run like the Red Sox and stay in contention so that in 5 years they are still a contender and still an elite organization in baseball rather than looking like the 2010 Mets.— Chewy59 - A well-written argument. It's very easy to clamor for a guy in hunter pence who many have never watched on day-in, day-out basis.— jqberlin
- Brown has shown power so far, against 88mph fastballs and hanging breaking balls...I received a ball he hit off a 93 mph fastball, but I was sitting down the third base line.— bearsfriend
- And what about 100 mph heat from Verlander?
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7196483— Mike P - I agree to a point BUT his fielding is driving me crazy. Coming after the brillant fielding Werth, it is SO obvious. Couldn't he at least be taken out for defense late???— MJSI
- Forget Werth, comparing him to Mayberry makes him look very bad. And I still say that Mayberry has been better than Brown in every aspect of the game. It's time to give him more pt to see what he can do. At least defensively he excels, let's see how well he can hit over a full season against lefties and righties. — mjc1
- Yeh,those guys leading the league in assistsand top ten in 6 offensive categories...there a nightmare!— bearsfriend
- Bring back Pat Burrell - he would be a huge bench upgrade from Ben Francisco!!!— BringBackBowa
- Are some of these people the same folks who gave Dom a standing ovation for his first major league at bat?...That alone reflected the hype that is created by Baseball America and Assistant GM's who sell.— bearsfriend
Comment removed.- The Phillies need to keep Brown - Ibanez gone after this year. Phils need to pursue Upton. I know his overall numbers don't look good, but look at his splits: Home 47 games, 6 HR, 14 RBI, .171 Avg, .312 SLG and .562 OPS compared to Away 50 games, 9 HR, 39 RBI, .278 Avg, .471 SLG and .827 OPS. He just needs to get out of Tampa.— PBrax
- Brown is very scary on defense, even on routine fly balls, he appears to struggle. His glove seems always out of position. Offensively he has not shown a lot to this point. He is a risk...if you can get Pence for him...do it.— Kioto
- Matt Weiters just four years ago was touted as the greatest minor league prospect since Joe Mauer...The guy has become a good player...but there are tons of good players...going into the playoffs having the best record in baseball is nice for the Phils, but they are no lock..the games figure to be tight,low scoring games against many of the matchups...Are you all really so comfortable with Brown?— bearsfriend
- Brown is worth keeping, he got a hit I believe last night. So, don't let him walk just yet. He may be Michael Bourn II or not. He may have the tools to be a 5 tool player in the near future. I can see it.— Ace-Philadelphia
- Upside doesn't win championships.— veritas1325
- Hmmm, the 2008 Phils won it because of all of the upside of their farm in the mid 2000s. Morons all over this site!!! — seaonasdad
- you can usually tell certain things immediately about players --even when Schmidt struggled at the plate his first year, he played great defense, had great power, was a terrific baserunner and showed excellent baseball instincts --he simply had no plate disciline -something that took years to improve...Brown is no Schmidt, he may not even be a major league ballplayer --what is an outfielder worth who can't catch or throw, a basreunner with poor instincts; if there are any takers of course they should trade Brown for a bona fide starting ourfielder; next year they can then platoon Mayberry and some acquisition to replace Ibanez (unless they want to sign Ibanez to a cheap 1 yr deal and platoon Mayberry with Ibanez)— warbiscuit
- This is exactly what is making me think he should be traded. I would expect at least one aspect of his game to be showing potential. Plate discipline is about it. His defense is much much worse than I imagined it would be. He hasn't been a great base runner and he seems to lack hustle at times.
— s - Brown looks lost....good luck with him in the playoffs...Pence has the best arm in the NL, he is an up-temo, effort guy...instant energy which this team lacks (other than Chase). Trade Brown,Singleton and Cosart...get it done.— repski
- Best arm in the NL? Stretching it a bit are we? Saying that a bit, just b/c he threw out the runner from LF in the All Star game? I wouldn't say he has the best arm... — PhilliefaninAZ
- Mayebrry has consistently outplayed Brown and shows more potential -he is at least a quality defensive outfielder and has hit some clutch homeruns— warbiscuit
- I'm on the fence with Brown. I think he can/should be traded for the right player(s) in return but I don't think you flip him for just anyone. I'm not 100% convinced either Pence or Quentin fit the bill but they come pretty close. If it weren't for his horrid defense I might be more on the Keep Brown! team. I think he will be a good player but that could be two years away. If you look at other stars who started slow, it's often more than 162 games before they start hitting their potential. And I think Brown's defense could lose us an important game. We saw evidence of that last night. He makes that catch and the game might have ended differently.
— s - How many top 10 talents start off their MLB careers average at best? Probably many and it's frustrating seeing Dom being very average.— shawnmac
- @warbiscuit you are correct, and it's driving the decision makers crazy.— bearsfriend
- Brown is going to help us beat the Giants...not unless he improves A LOT. I'd like to keep Brown, but if we want to win this year, we need to land a 5 hole, and he has to be a consistant, reliable 5 hole. C'mon Amaro...get this done!— MFPhils
- @shawnmac...how many top ten talents stay average...an incredible amount...Pro scouting, especially in baseball, is not an exact science. It really depends on the individual's work ethic and ability to adjust...— bearsfriend
- Its brutual to watch Brown play right field. Maybe let him play Left? Seriously!— micconway
- Comment removed.
- It's amazing that people respond to Domonic's fielding problems with the "don't worry, he's young" argument. Little League coaches begin teaching kids how to play the outfield. This guy is in his twenties, and now he needs to learn how to field? He reminds me of my daughter's CYO softball team. Run a mile, and then misplay it.— richojr
- Good article Matt. You can't mortgage the future for an above average player (which Pence & Quentin are). Sticking w/Dom is the only way to go.— thomaspfoolery
- I'm not sure even the Phillies are confident that Brown will be the star that everyone thinks...if they did then they wouldn't be in talks to acquire a 28 year old right fielder...at least that's my opinion..unless they hope to put brown in left next year...
- I am not against trading Brown and the only reason why is because of his fielding. He looks like a lost puppy in RF. Perhaps we were pampered with Werth's speed, judgment, and arm out there...but Brown is failing at defense. He is simply not ready to be a full time major league outfielder...YET. The hot dog dives he keeps resorting to are scary. And given that he's an unproven base-stealer and at the bottom of the line-up, his ability to procure walks doesn't mean a great deal to me. I'd prefer to see Mayberry in RF if we don't trade Brown and get another RF. I'd actually prefer to see Brown back at AAA until he learns how to be a proper outfielder.— bingbangbong
- Whether you're on the fence about Brown or not (and I am), it makes no sense to include him in a deal for an OF, for both money and future reasons.— wking410
- Bad comparison. All those rookies didn't have the questions marks Brown has. Schmidt, Posey, Yadier Molina, to name just three, were already good defensive players. In the case of Schmidt and Molina, they are gold glovers and Posey is so good and fundamentally sound that he played 1B. Please Gelb, don't insult our intelligence by making bogus comparisons. This kid doesn't belong in the majors, let alone in the heat of the pennant race and/or in the playoffs. And look at the records those other kids had during their rookie season and compare them to Brown. Cabrera is not GG but he can play all OF positions.— EL Zorro
- posey was so fundamentally sound that he blocked the plate incorrectly and cost himself the 2011 season. butchers play first base, it doesn't speak to versatility. you're insulting my intelligence.
he belongs in the majors. he belongs in the heat of the pennant race. give me a break.— dmc0603 - Answer this question...Is Brown's trade value as high as it was when he was an offensive force at Reading and labeled an untouchable during negotiations with Toronto for Halladay?...— bearsfriend
- I was thinking this last night after that defensive blunder. Every one of those he makes is probably lowering his value.
He needs to show one of those "5 tools" on a consistent basis. As the old saying goes, he seems to have left his tools in the shed.— s - I was also wondering about moving him to left field. He's going to end up there anyway. Ibanez may be old but he's a better fielder than Brown and he still gives us a few highlight reel catches every year. And give Mayberry more playing time while he's hot. I would have put him in late last night.— s
- What Brown represents is POTENTIAL, he is not a proven product, by far. This historically frugal club has put like 17o million dollars into this great team this year...use that potential and get a proven player if you can...This player does not HAVE to be righthanded...Eric Thames,Logan Morrison,Andre Ethier..Hunter Pence...get er done.— bearsfriend
- Another story should be will the Phils look for a third baseman if Polanco's rehabs go bad for him?....A name out there would be Edwin Encarnacion.— bearsfriend
- ...is Brown flubbing it in RF so he WON'T be a valuable trade chip?...just a thought...— bingbangbong
- Nice article. Pence and Quentin might require Browen in a trade. Could it be time for the Phils to revisit a trade with the Dodgers and try to pry Matt Kemp away with the kind of package they're offering for Pence? It's true the Dodgers have said Kemp was not available, but that was a few weeks ago. In an entropy-motivated universe, things change. If not Kemp, how about Melky Cabrera who would not require as much as any of the previously mentioned players? Or, how about giving the Nationals a bunch of prospects for the homesick Jason Werth and $60 million? A final thought is acquiring Michael Bourn who the Astros are trying to trade. Bourn is a lefty and not a power hitter, but he's a very good contact hitter, a Gold Glove outfielder with a canon for an arm, and one of baseball's premier base stealers. With Bourn leading off, JRoll could be moved down in the lienup and become the RBI producer the Phils are currently seeking. Maybe the problem with the Phils offense is not its components, but the way the components fit together in the lienup. Bourn gets on base a lot, works pitchers like few other players and stealsd a lot of bases. JRoll is a dependable hitter with runners on base, and he libes for the big moment in every game. Just a few ideas - no worst than those that are currently advising the Phils to sell the farm for prospects that do not really upgrade the team offensively, and really downgrade the team defensively.
- Finally a rational article on Brown, he is going to be an all-star player he is super raw right now but he wasn't rated the best prospect in all of baseball for nothing, look at Jason Heyward terrible season, Mike Trout is hitting like 180 for the Angels, the point about Mike Schmidt is legit too...To all the Brown haters, take a gander at this article and please have some faith, MY GOD...www.thegoodphight.com/2011/7/27/2294866/domonic-brown-is-more-valuable-than-hunter-pence-straight-up— SouthJerseyMike
- @onthebucks...Bourne would look good as a leadoff if J Roll was not resigned..That sounds like more of a deal in the off season though.— bearsfriend
- Brown is going to be a major league star, but the Phils let him ride the Major League Express too soon. His hitting still needs a lot of work, although he watches pitches very well. His extremely poor defense is a major liability for a team about to get involved in many close games against better competition. Finally, he has to learn how to think like a major leaguer. His lack of maturity and experience are forcing him to make elementary mistakes that could be misperceived as lack of ability, desire and/or motivation. Brown is going to be a mjor league star, but it won't be this year and probably not next year either. This recognition by the Phils is important as the team prepares to upgrade for this pennant run, as well as the next two or three to follow.
- Keep Brown, trade Francisco, Baez, Herndon, Singleton, Savery, Valdez or some combination or players/prospects for a right hand bat and a relief pitcher— jss31
- keep brown. he's still trending upward. trade worley, he will regress.— revolveevolv
- Is Burrell available?— johnnymon
- @SJMike...sounds like you bought too many Brown jerseys...Bad comparison to Trout, sho is 19 and had just 42 at bats...Can you really see Brown as an all star ahead of Mike Stanton, Jay Bruce,Hunter Pence, Heyward,Justin Upton,Andre Ethier....Carlos Gonzalez,Ryan Braun...Matt Kemp?..Sure he will.Not.— bearsfriend
- whatever the Phils want to do I'll be behind it since Beltran is off the market...In RAJ I trust...— tralala
- Comparing Schmidt to Brown is inane dribble. Brown has a mere 5 homeruns and I have not seen anything close to the power potential. Actually he has less power than John Mayberry and is worse than Quentin on defense. Nice kid but a way overvalued prospect. Trade him now for Quentin. I think Quentin could be a real shot in the arm now. Frankly, I don't want to wait five years for Brown to become an average player. This team is championship calibre and Brown is not.— Phillip Phan
- Keep Brown - he will pay huge future dividends. The Phillies don't need another star, a solid right handed hitter is what they need. Forget fielding and throwing, we need a guy to get on base and drive in some runs.— billtfla
- Other bogus comparison by Gelb. Jacob Ellsbury was selected as minor league defesive player of the year and baserunner of the year 2 years in a row by the Red Sox. And in his rookie season he was not in the regular line up during the playoffs. As a matter of fact he was added as a baserunner and late defensive replacement for Manny Ramires and replaced the struggling Coco Crisp in game 6 of the ALCS. As for Dontrelle Willis he was rookie of the year in 2003 and Beckett wasn't a "rookie'' that year either. He pitched both in 2001 (4 games) and 2002 (23 games and 1007 inn). Bottom line, all those rookies you compared to Dom Brown were more accomplished baseball players and more ML ready than him. Period.— EL Zorro
- Too much downside. Trade him.— Boru
- If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, this kid unfortunately is not a duck
— southernmostfan - I agree with this article.— Clt Philly Fan
- It's not just about upside in 5 years. Next year matters too. Brown would be a low-cost starter. I know certain contracts come off the books: Ibanez, Lidge, and probably Oswalt. But there are salary increases to Howard and Lee next. Plus, we'd need a Madson replacement if he walks. Plus, we need payroll space for Hamels. And we need to figure out SS/Rollins. If Brown can be a starter, not just this year but next, Phillies would significantly benefit from having a low-cost, controllable player to make the numbers work NEXT year. And...NEXT year is within the window we're talking about. I'm not saying yes or no either way, but let's keep in consideration the benefits beyond the immediate.— quaker00
- Stand pat. Platoon Mayberry and Brown. Next year Mayberry and brown play the corners for cheap.— Joe at the shore
- Well said, Mr. Gelb!— padillaflotilla
- I think the best way to answer this question, is whether he is coachable. If he has talent and is willing and able to learn, then stick with him. The same people yelling to trade him now will be the same people complaining a few years down the road when the Phllies no longer have any talent.— LasVegasScott
- So, who plays left next year? Anyway, comparing his numbers to other young players who ended up as stars seems to be curious logic. MY take on Brown is he just does not move like a baseball player. But then again, is there a more awkard looking player than Hunter Pence?— bobcitydoc
- Is Domonic Brown going to allow Ryan Howard to see more fastballs to hit?— dasher
- Matt, I understand your position about Dom Brown and I most repsectfully disagree. If Dom Brown can bring the Phillies a Carlos Quentin, I say trade him. Everyone speaks of Brown's athleticism. I just don't see it. Forget his hitting and his fielding woes. Let's look ay something that I think is a key to Brown's future success. Domonic Brown is not graceful or fluid in the field, at the bat or on the bases. Compare him to two of his slightly younger comtemporaries, Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton. All three are 6'5". Heyward and Stanton weigh 235 and 240 lbs. respectively. Brown weighs 205. That said, look at the way Heyward and Stanton comport themselves in the field and on the bases. Their play is more fluid and gracful than Brown's. They look and play like much more mature players than Brown. Their play is much more instinctual than Brown's. Brown plays like he has to think about what he's going to before he does it. That lack of fluidity and grace of movement, playing with instinct, is not something that can be taught. One either has it or they don't, and the lack of it, to me at least, means that what we're now seeing from Brown is what we'll see in the future. I say trade him now, while his value is at its peak. If he can bring a Quentin or Pence, do it fast!— mike 1717
- Yep that Heyward is tearin stuff up with his .211 avg and 0.311 OBP. Boss stuff considering Brown's 0.252 avg and 0.343 OBP. — PhillyPhreak
- I am normally incredibly critical of the poor writing that takes place on this website. However this article was the best I have read in a while. Excellent job Matt, Great Analysis of the situation. I could not agree with your opinion any more. Keep up the good work, your quickly becoming my favorite writer in Philadelphia.
I know it must mean a ton to you to have my approval.— MrPhilly123456 - Mike1717, that's exactly how I feel. I don't see a ballplayer in him. Like he never player baseball before. He doesn't have a feel and that's something you don't learn, especially facing ML pitching and fielding.— EL Zorro
- Anyone advocating trading Brown is extremely foolish. This fan base has come light years in the last decade in terms of support and dedication, but still has a long way to go when it comes to baseball intelligence.— leeal02
- PLEASE EVERYBODY CALM DOWN. If your issue with Dom Brown is Fielding, why would we bring in Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin? Also, Bears fan Logan Morrison? He probably shouldn't even be in the majors and is the worst fielder of anyone mentioned on this board. In the playoffs Ibanez in Left Mayberry in Right and Brown on the bench unless he gets hot. You want to trade to get some bullpen help (which we really don't need anyway) or another third baseman go ahead, but don't touch Cosart.— Setdawgy
- I have never disagreed with so many statements in on story.
Brown's atheticism?! He is the most uncoordinated major leaguer I have ever seen, and you can't teach that.
Flashes of greatness?! Are you kidding?
A guy batting 7th and playing right field can't lose a playoff series!?? One more awful play in the outfield easily loses a game. And that's not just catching the ball. The other day he made a throw that missed home plate by 25 feet to the right!
You can make the argument based on the finances needed to replace Raul, otherwise you're just dreaming.
— VicM - My only concern is that two years down the road, Howard ends up being an ineffective LH bat and will have to be shipped to the AL...and Brown will need to be that LH power bat. They only way I would trade Brown is if it was a package to get Matt Kemp.
- Matt this the correct analysis. Another young contributor was Miguel Cabrera in 2003. He I think was just 19 or 20 years old starting Game 6 of the World Series in RF. Didn't hurt the Fish from beating the Yankees on the road that night. I really like Dom and his upside and his growing patience shows he is getting better. From a financial and baseball standpoint, it makes lots of sense to keep him.— BoricuaPhilsFan
- when playing the giants or braves I'd rather have mayberry out there, if they don't trade brown, I'm not sure how much value he has in the majors versus more time on the farm to get his fielding right.— dreinterests
- i have noticed in the article that no one talks about mayberry jr. i feel he is a better player than brown and should get the job after ibanez leaves.— rfklak
- Agree with article; meanwhile, trade clock is still ticking and RAJ is still playing his cards close to the vest (unless he is ready to fold 'em)...— M60tanker
- A week ago I was firmly in the do not trade Brown camp. Now I'm not so sure. I don't know what the right answer is. But I also don't believe Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin are worth giving up on Brown and what it means financially down the road. I know that the only right type of player to trade Brown for is someone like Matt Kemp, who is not going to be traded. I also belive that you have to win now. We need a better fielder than Brown, who has been awful. I absolutely believe the Phillies need to make a move, especially since the Giants and Braves will be getting better with the additions they make. Ruben has difficult decisions to make in the next few days.— Stanmice
- Oswalt back to Houston— GAphil
- Good piece. Turned my thinking around.— P2will
- What is the Willingham fascination? He isn't even an every day player.
— phillyceltic - Phillies 2012 Payroll: Howard 20mil, Utley 15mil, Polanco 6.25mil, Victorino 9.5mil, Ruiz 3.7mil, Halladay 20mil, Lee 21.5mil, Hamels 17.5mil, Blanton 8.5mil, Contreras 2.5mil. That's 124.5 million for 10 players. So the Phillies have 50 million to sign 16 players (assuming Blanton isn't healthy) including a closer, starting shortstop, 2 corner outfielders, 2 starting pitchers, 6 relief pitchers and 5 bench players.— Young Baller
- Bourne from Huston would be a good move he won't give you a huge bat but will get on base steal base. Putting Jimmy lower in the order would be a good giving him more chances to get big hits. But I much rather have a huge RH BAT! Brown has the tools and in a season or two will show everyone he is an everyday player I believe he will be a .275-.290 hitter 25 HR 35-40 stolen bases and 75-1-90 RBI guy in left field which are good numbers but this won't happen for at least another year or two. For right now we need a bat to protect Howard if it just a little better than what we have then we need another relief pitcher too but I won't give the farm for Hunter. also what if we end up needing a 3rd baseman? Than what I don't see what we have as being good enough to win it all. Just saying come on RUB make the right movies now!— bigdaddy1216
- No objection to keeping Brown (Dr. Strangeglove) as long as it is at lehigh Valley. Everyone seems to agree that he needs to learn the game. The place for that in in the minor leagues. $450,000 salary!!! here we go back to the days of Bob Carpenter, Ben Chapman, et al!!! This is the 21st century. If you want to play in the bigs, you nneed to beb realistic. 178 CONSECUTIVE SELLOUTS!!! The Phi;ll;ies are cash strapped??? Get real! Sebd Brown down until he is ready to play in the bigs. The article says Brown will not win or lose the series. Just so long a no balls are hit to right field!!!— billroc35
- I saw Miguel Cabrera when he played third base with the Carolina Mudcats. I saw Dom Brown in Durham last year. There is no comparison here. Cabrera lit up whatever pitching he faced. Dom Brown foul, strike, foul strike or soft linedrive. Can't field, doesn't have the intrinsics or instincts. He reminds me of a Met, way overrated and over done in the press. Trade him for Quentin or Pence if that is possible. And let's remember the org. is finally committed to winning so those who cry poor mouth and worry about money need to go back under a rock and reminisce about the old days!— Phillip Phan
- One thing I don't understand in all the trade talk is why Kyle Kendrick, a $2 million a year starting pitcher, is never mentioned. With everyone looking for starters, you'd think someone would be interested in Kendrick who, with a change of scenery, might come into his own. The Yanks are always looking for pitching and probably have a few players who could help the Phils now and in the next few years. At the top of the list is Nick Swisher, a switch-hitter who has 12 homers and 52 RBIs this year, is an above average defensive player, and the kind of competitor who would probably be welcome in the Phils clubhouse. The Yanks also have a lot of extra catchers, one position the Phils seriously need to acquire depth at in the near future. Giving up Kendrick and a few other non-essential players could net the Phils Swisher and a major league-ready catcher. Just a thought.
- I apologize for all the mis-typings, but I just get so furious at all the mopes out there who alibi for Dr. Strangeglove while roasting Vance Worley for being 7-1 at a time when my beloved Phils need those wins most. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt are among the best in baseball, and Worley, at least so far, has equaled or bested their performance. If pitshing is 80% of the game, don't even think about trading any of them unless you can get Joe D, The Mick, The Babe, and Rogers Hornsby in return. Let's win this year. Who was it who said, "Worry about today. Worry about tomorrow tomorrow"?— billroc35
- Trade D. Brown NOW!— misterhman
- Hello all. I am a scouting director for a major league team. I have been so impressed with the collective analysis on Dom Brown that I would like to offer the first 10 applicants a job scouting for us. Please send your resumes to my boss, Mr. Ed Wade. I look forward to working with such brilliant baseball minds...— PhillyPhreak
- The bottom line is that despite all your excuses, Brown has really contributed very little. He gets worse in the field and seems to be lazy in his play; at best, he is a work in progress and you have no idea what you will ever get out of him. Pence and Quentin are proven major leaguers; something we don't know Brown can ever be!— JBinPA
- Your; use; of the; semi; colon; need; to be; checked;.
— PhillyPhreak - Nothing seems to be happening on the trade deadline front. So when Polly comes off the DL, Brown should be sent down to Lehigh Valley for the rest of the season to work under Ryne Sandberg and be brought up after the Int. league playoffs if his outfield defense improves. It's time to pull the plug on trying to develope a right fielder in the middle of a pennant chase. Give Brown some tough love to see if he can mature into an all around major league player who takes correct routes to fly balls and does not miss second base while running the bases. He is not in the line up just for his Base on Balls! Mayberry should be the every day right fielder. His defense alone merits that status.— Dull
- @JBin...simple...well said.— bearsfriend
- @setdawgy...hey bud, go back and stand in the beer line..you've been missing the games..Dom Brown's fielding percentage is an anemic .948 for a rightfielder and has zero assists...He is nowhere near the player of Logan Morrison, who is younger and promising.— bearsfriend
- Pointless article. Brown is not being considered in a trade for Pence. The Astros want prospects and they aren't even sure if they want to trade Pence, given the current economics of the team.— philly-born
- Brown has more upside than Quentin and Pence??!?!?! How moronic. He has proven nothing except that he is a brutal outfielder. This is a win NOW team. The Giants stepped up and gave up a gem to get Beltran. They will win the NL again. Wake up Kool-Aid drinkers.— gluteman
- The interesting thing about this comment is you call the prospect the Giants gave up "a gem" but you've already written off Brown. Remember you need to share the Kool-Aid sometimes.... — PhillyPhreak
- Brown is still very raw, and has a lot to learn. He was a football player headed to college to play WR, not a refined baseball player. But the skills are there. I am sure the Phillies brass would have preferred Brown to play AAA this year and refine his defense, but Francisco stunk up the place and Mayberry didn't exactly tear it up. Once Victorino was injured they were force to call Brown into duty. We need to give this kid a year or two.
The only player I move Brown for is Kemp. Pence is a marginal upgrade over what we have. Quentin is a decent bat but terrible fielder. These guys are all due to make huge money next year, well in excess of their worth. None of those guys could carry this team. And the fact of the matter is if Rollins, Utley and Howard don't hit this team won't win!
— dankil13 - I hate to respond to stupid arguments. dmc603, did you really say Posey is a butcher at 1b? Let me see, playing 1b at AAA Fresno, he didn't commit a error in 125 chances in 2010. Later that year he was promoted to the bigs and committed 1 error in 210 chances for a .996 FP, .003 over the avg. and that was his 1st time playing 1B in professional ball. And for him blocking homeplate the wrong way, there is only one way to block the plate, and that's is blocking it. Look at Pudge Rodriguez blocking HP in the WS with the Marlins and there is not much difference. Pudge was lucky he didn't get hurt or maybe the runner wasn't as nasty as Cousins was against Posey or Pete Rose against Ray Fosse or like Fosse, now an annoucer with the Atlethics pointed out, Cousins didn't have to make such a violence collision:
“Ray Fosse feels absolutely terrible for Buster Posey. Could hardly bear to watch replays of the collision that likely ended the season for the San Francisco Giants' 24-year-old Rookie of the Year catcher. Doesn't think Scott Cousins needed to ram into Posey to score the go-ahead run Tuesday night..’’
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/05/buster-posey-injury-ray-fosse-pete-rose/1?csp=34sports
So I guess in you estimation, AS and two time GG catcher Ray Fosse wasn’t fundamentally sound either when Pete Rose rammed into him in the 1970 AS game that separated his shoulder and affected the rest of his career.— EL Zorro - Wow. I have to say this is really well done.— knebman
- According to reports, Houston rejected our latest offers and Atlanta is the frontrunner to get Pence and also Chicago is not in a hurry to trade Quentin after trading Edwin Jackson. They rather trade Adam Dunn. The same report says the Padres are scouting the Phillies minor league system and sent another scout to follow the IronPigs to take a good look at DeFratus, Schwimer and Aumont. It looks like we're looking at reliever Mike Adams and our RH bat could be Ludwig instead of Hunter Pence or Quentin. The logic for getting Adams is that he can become the closer next year when Madson walks as a FA and the Padres want good young relievers to replace Adams and Bell, who is going to Texas most likely.— EL Zorro
- Joe "Nickles" Banner, I agree with the trade Dominic Brown and some
farm talent for Hunter Pense. Pense is one of the top 5 outfielders
in baseball, and would be an upgrade to the departed Werth.
Have you seen Werth stats??? Bring in Hunter now Rubin!!!!— mikey48 - I agree with all those whom say, with Beltran, the Giants will win
the NCLS easily again without the Phillies picking up another bat!
Pence and the return of a healthy rested Oswalt, along with a
healthy Lidge,Madson and Bastardo could swing it back to the
Phillies. Oswalt is one of the few pitchers who is lights out
against the Giants.— mikey48 - Fine piece, Matt. Only thing I know is I'm not smart enough to know about a kid like Brown. If I was, guess I'd be working for the Phils or someone else in MLB. Me, I trust this organization now and that wasn't remotely the case in years past.— PhillySubsMac
- Browm may be the worst-fielding outfielder I've ever seen, including old, fat guys like Adam Dunn. That said, I like his upside and don't think that Pence is that sure a thing. He chases as many bad pitches as the best of the Phils. I'd rather they pick up a "professional hitter" type who can do what Ben Francisco was supposed to do. Let Mayberry do his thing as the fifth outfielder.— frankenslade
- Bush liked Brownie.— NewMick314
- Nice article, Matt. However, this is where I disagree..."But Brown's upside is beyond Pence and Quentin. They are entering their prime at 28, and both have impressive numbers. They are not stars. Brown can be a star..." Frankly, don't think you can say this. This core group deserves another Championship NOW...you optimize your chances for 2011 and that makes Dom Brown a legitimate trade item...his potential is years out...our window of opportunity is not that long. Make a deal.
— Special Agent Fox Mulder - An article yesterday, I believe, reminded us all of Polanco not being in the lineup. That right-handed bat is all I think we need to even out the lineup.— tjason11
- Another thing not mentioned here, is that you have to mix in some young guys into the line up. You will not have much success if all your players are 35 and up. If not Brown, then the Phillies need some position guys under 25 who can play in the bigs.— road515
- The guy seems to have a load of natural talent. I think more time in the minors learning the fine nuisances playing the outfield would improve his defensive play. He looks fairly comfortable at bat, seems to have a good eye, and some tweaking there would only help him. I feel sorry for the guy, but learning OJT in the bigs just doesn't hack it.— dogman5
- Well thought out, articulate, even keeled to say the least - a voice of calm amidst a debate. Probably too, it is the right response to the general crowd who needs to hear it. But to challenge a little here, this article was easy, almost a no brainer. I mostly agree too. It's just common sense - give a rookie more time to develop. What I really think would be more cutting and to the point is to make the case that those who want to trade Brown don't see his value, and then hammer with a much better researched article showing why Brown is valuable - more info from scouts, some minor league stats, the story of how he was asked to make a small adjustment and then just wowed the scouts. I think that's really a better argument on why you keep Brown than a rather bland breeze about give a rookie some time. It takes more research, effort and work sure, but I think it would be worth it.— chrism68
- Excellent analysis - I agree. I have always maintained this kid needs more seasoning - he's only played 4 years of baseball and I know some 13 year olds that have played more - and that the righthanded bat insertion we are looking for replaces Ibanez next year or the year after when Brown is ready to be a full time, 5 tool player, consistently. Yes, this team can absorb him for now, as they have Mayberry, but in the heat of 7 game playoffs, his mistakes and his lack of 'clutchness' due to his learning curve, is putting undo pressure on him. Lord knows, he's already soured on all of us for attacking him. Why would he play here when he stops being an indentured servant? Give him some space, go get a great bat and fielder, but let him mature into a Phillie.— Dadof24
- The "argument" that Brown is untouchable now because they wouldn't trade him last year to get a top pitcher is too stupid for words. What kind of logic is that?? Last year's assessment was wrong, so let's move ahead! If he turns into Ted Williams someday, I'll be glad to apologize here. If someone wants him for someone we want, I would not hesitate to ship him.— filzfan
- And nonsense is "drivel," not "dribble." Okay? LoL— filzfan
- When this kid has had "enough seasoning," all of the players that make the Phils a contender will be waaaay past their primes. If there is a brief window of opportunity for a WS or two, let Brown get his seasoning on a team with lesser aspirations. If he's the key to a deal for someone who is a big upgrade NOW (offensively and defensively), send him!— filzfan
- Has anybody noticed how much territory Victorino is covering in right field these days? I wonder why?...hmmmm— larryv
- is this guy a future first-place starter or not. management must have made a decision on this point by now. if indeed he is, why oh why has't the coaching staff been on this guy like a second skin? he has GOT to hustle down the line on ground balls to the infield. he has GOT to go full-tilt after balls hit into the corner. he has GOT to show he is happy to be here and play his heart out. if the management indeed has been on his case and he is not responding, then either kick his tuches or dump him. or does he have a major head problem?— bubba church & granny hamner
- Nice one Matt!— RhondaBillings
- Domonic Brown is struggling to meet some high expectations. There are areas of his game that are underdeveloped and he's working on them. The results, in the meantime, are not always under his control. There is one thing that is absolutely under his control, running hard to the base and to the ball. When you're working on your game, you go hard and shine at what you're already good at. You put maximum effort in overcoming your weaknesses. You shouldn't have to be reminded to run out every ground ball. You shouldn't have the same hole in your swing day in and day out. It's not always about results with a young player but it is always about approach. I don't see the maturity or baseball instinct in Domonic Brown that some other young players who struggled early possessed. I don't think we have time for him to figure it out.— Shawn5906
- He looks like Stevie Wonder in RF. His defense is a huge liability and his offense is not making up for it...he can be dismissed.— kelprod2
10 cent head will always be Brown's liability. This championship-caliber team needs a right handed bat tight now. Trade Brown.
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The Phillies Zone is the place for up-to-the-minute Phillies coverage from the Inquirer.
Matt Gelb
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Bob Brookover
Inquirer Baseball Columnist
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