On Domonic Brown
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On Domonic Brown
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The most fascinating thing about the public referendum on Domonic Brown is that we have no idea if this same debate is taking place within the walls that matter, the room where Ruben Amaro Jr. and his lieutenants are assessing the Phillies needs in the current trade market.
There are indications the Phillies have considered trading Brown. Teams are definitely asking for him. They were certainly not willing to deal Brown for a rental player like Carlos Beltran, and few would disagree with that choice. They could be willing to move Brown for a young, controllable outfielder like Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin. Or maybe they aren't. Maybe they haven't decided. Maybe it's not even a factor.
Still, the current debate has just about divided a fan base (from what I can tell). The Trade Brown! camp has made its voice clear: He has yet to prove anything. He is a liability in the field. He hasn't hit for power. He's taking up a spot that's needed for a righthanded bat.
The Keep Brown! people stress patience. He is 23 years old. He was the only untouchable in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball, so why trade him now? This lineup is the oldest in baseball and the last thing the Phillies should do is trade their youngest regular. He has shown flashes of greatness, albeit only flashes.
Really, everything centers around this principle: Are the Phillies willing to live with the inconsistency of a 23-year-old rookie in a pennant race because of the great upside that lies ahead?
If you follow me on Twitter (@magelb), you'll know that I fall squarely in the Keep Brown! team. Truthfully, my answer to the current issue lies in the middle. Yes, the Phillies should keep Brown, but they should acquire a bat not in the ilk of Pence or Quentin. Instead, with the best and perfereable option already off the market in Carlos Beltran, the Phillies should now focus on acquiring a righthanded complement to both Brown and Raul Ibanez. More in the Reed Johnson, Ryan Ludwick, Josh Willingham mold. They provide stability and a minor upgrade -- all that is currently needed.
Hunter Pence is a really nice player. He is. But his strikeouts are up. His walk rate is painfully low. He has two fewer home runs than Ibanez. His batting average on balls in play is a staggering .367, which means luck has greatly contributed to a .307 batting average.
Carlos Quentin is attractive, too. He is slugging .510 and that would instantly be the second best on these Phillies, behind only Shane Victorino. His on-base percentage is fueled by 20 hit by pitches and his walk rate isn't spectacular, but acceptable. His .913 OPS against lefthanded pitching is enticing.
Brown is five years younger than both Pence and Quentin. Those two are indisputably better players currently than Brown. They would cost a great deal to acquire, but their instant value would be important.
But Brown's upside is beyond Pence and Quentin. They are entering their prime at 28, and both have impressive numbers. They are not stars. Brown can be a star.
Domonic Brown has played 87 games in the majors. Eighty-seven. That is no sample size to make judgments about the future. If anything, those 87 games have shown the great promise of Brown. (By the way, some guy named Mike Schmidt once hit .197 with a .690 OPS in his first 145 games. He turned out OK.)
From last season to this, Brown has already improve his plate discipline. He leads the team with 4.08 pitches per plate appearance. He is walking 12.4 percent of the time, a greater rate than Pence or Quentin have ever had -- in the majors or minors.
Why do walks matter? Well, for one, it means Brown is on base. His OBP has improved nearly 90 points from his brief time last season. He is not chasing as many balls as before. He is waiting for his pitch, which is a great predicate of success. Charlie Manuel will often say good hitting can only happen when you have a good ball to hit. Sounds silly, but it's not so easy. The tendency is for younger players to chase more, to force success out of a pitch that will not create it.
And no, Brown is not hitting for power yet. Manuel was asked Wednesday about Brown's approach at the plate and he commended his patience. Then, he noted, that Brown seems to be fouling off a lot of those pitches to hit.
Here's another thing to remember: Phillies executives said Brown's power would be the last thing to develop. It typically is with most prospects. But then Brown fractured the hamate bone in his right hand and missed most of spring training. Hand and wrist injuries will sap power, and while players can return within weeks of the injury, power is said to fully regenerate later.
The criticism of Brown's fielding reached a fever pitch Wednesday when he misplayed a ball that led to San Francisco's second and decisive run. There is no disputing Brown's shortcomings in right field. But there is no question that his athleticism, with time and instruction, cannot make him into at least an average fielder. (Advanced defensive metrics rate Quentin below average, and in recent years, among the worst outfielders in the majors. Pence is above average.)
The worst argument to trading Brown I've heard is that the Phillies' window is closing and they must win now. For sure, they have to win now. They invested $175 million in this team and that is why they should seek to improve at the trade deadline.
But trading Brown only negatively affects the proverbial window. If you deal him for another outfielder like Pence or Quentin, you still need to acquire another corner outfielder this winter once Ibanez leaves. Now you're paying your right fielder upwards of $9 or $10 million instead of the $450,000 Brown will make in 2012. And left field is still vacant. On top of contractual issues with Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Madson and expanding salaries for current signed players, it doesn't all fit. That's how your window collapses.
Then people will say, "You can't win a World Series with a rookie or young player in a crucial position." Well, there was Buster Posey in 2010. And Melky Cabrera in 2009, Cole Hamels in 2008, Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007, Yadier Molina in 2006, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis in 2003, Francisco Rodriguez in 2002 and the list goes on and on.
Domonic Brown bats seventh and plays right field. The Phillies will not win or lose a World Series because of him.
Can they add a righthanded bat to platoon in left and right field and hope he catches fire a la Cody Ross? Sure. Can they fortify the bullpen with a veteran arm? Sure.
None of that involves trading Domonic Brown, which at this point, is an unnecessary and reactionary move. And for all we know, the Phillies agree.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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whatever the Phils want to do I'll be behind it since Beltran is off the market...In RAJ I trust...— tralala- Comparing Schmidt to Brown is inane dribble. Brown has a mere 5 homeruns and I have not seen anything close to the power potential. Actually he has less power than John Mayberry and is worse than Quentin on defense. Nice kid but a way overvalued prospect. Trade him now for Quentin. I think Quentin could be a real shot in the arm now. Frankly, I don't want to wait five years for Brown to become an average player. This team is championship calibre and Brown is not.— Phillip Phan
- Keep Brown - he will pay huge future dividends. The Phillies don't need another star, a solid right handed hitter is what they need. Forget fielding and throwing, we need a guy to get on base and drive in some runs.— billtfla
- Other bogus comparison by Gelb. Jacob Ellsbury was selected as minor league defesive player of the year and baserunner of the year 2 years in a row by the Red Sox. And in his rookie season he was not in the regular line up during the playoffs. As a matter of fact he was added as a baserunner and late defensive replacement for Manny Ramires and replaced the struggling Coco Crisp in game 6 of the ALCS. As for Dontrelle Willis he was rookie of the year in 2003 and Beckett wasn't a "rookie'' that year either. He pitched both in 2001 (4 games) and 2002 (23 games and 1007 inn). Bottom line, all those rookies you compared to Dom Brown were more accomplished baseball players and more ML ready than him. Period.— EL Zorro
- Too much downside. Trade him.— Boru
- If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, this kid unfortunately is not a duck
— southernmostfan - I agree with this article.— Clt Philly Fan
- It's not just about upside in 5 years. Next year matters too. Brown would be a low-cost starter. I know certain contracts come off the books: Ibanez, Lidge, and probably Oswalt. But there are salary increases to Howard and Lee next. Plus, we'd need a Madson replacement if he walks. Plus, we need payroll space for Hamels. And we need to figure out SS/Rollins. If Brown can be a starter, not just this year but next, Phillies would significantly benefit from having a low-cost, controllable player to make the numbers work NEXT year. And...NEXT year is within the window we're talking about. I'm not saying yes or no either way, but let's keep in consideration the benefits beyond the immediate.— quaker00
- Stand pat. Platoon Mayberry and Brown. Next year Mayberry and brown play the corners for cheap.— Joe at the shore
- Well said, Mr. Gelb!— padillaflotilla
- I think the best way to answer this question, is whether he is coachable. If he has talent and is willing and able to learn, then stick with him. The same people yelling to trade him now will be the same people complaining a few years down the road when the Phllies no longer have any talent.— LasVegasScott
- So, who plays left next year? Anyway, comparing his numbers to other young players who ended up as stars seems to be curious logic. MY take on Brown is he just does not move like a baseball player. But then again, is there a more awkard looking player than Hunter Pence?— bobcitydoc
- Is Domonic Brown going to allow Ryan Howard to see more fastballs to hit?— dasher
- Matt, I understand your position about Dom Brown and I most repsectfully disagree. If Dom Brown can bring the Phillies a Carlos Quentin, I say trade him. Everyone speaks of Brown's athleticism. I just don't see it. Forget his hitting and his fielding woes. Let's look ay something that I think is a key to Brown's future success. Domonic Brown is not graceful or fluid in the field, at the bat or on the bases. Compare him to two of his slightly younger comtemporaries, Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton. All three are 6'5". Heyward and Stanton weigh 235 and 240 lbs. respectively. Brown weighs 205. That said, look at the way Heyward and Stanton comport themselves in the field and on the bases. Their play is more fluid and gracful than Brown's. They look and play like much more mature players than Brown. Their play is much more instinctual than Brown's. Brown plays like he has to think about what he's going to before he does it. That lack of fluidity and grace of movement, playing with instinct, is not something that can be taught. One either has it or they don't, and the lack of it, to me at least, means that what we're now seeing from Brown is what we'll see in the future. I say trade him now, while his value is at its peak. If he can bring a Quentin or Pence, do it fast!— mike 1717
- Yep that Heyward is tearin stuff up with his .211 avg and 0.311 OBP. Boss stuff considering Brown's 0.252 avg and 0.343 OBP. — PhillyPhreak
