Negotiating 101
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Negotiating 101
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
MIAMI — The Phillies have not traded Cole Hamels. They have not traded Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre or Cliff Lee.
The rumor du jour — and be ready for this, because it'll be a long July — was the Phillies were at least listening to potential offers for anything and anyone. Well that makes perfect sense. These Phillies are 11 games back and nine games under .500. It's harder to believe a run will happen by the day.
But the Phillies will not be trading any major piece anytime soon. It's as simple as that.
These "calls" that are being reported could very well go as such (and there are indications they sounded like this).
AMARO: "Hello, Team X. We're really in a hole and assessing our options. So, hypothetically, what would you offer should Cole Hamels become available?"
TEAM X: "What sort of package are you looking for?"
AMARO: "The sun, stars, and moon."
TEAM X: "We would certainly be interested, but not at that price. Come back to us later when we know who else is available and what other teams are buying."
OK, maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. sounded different, but you have the idea. The Phillies will set their sights high early in trade talks. It does not mean they will make a trade or receive what they want. It means nothing.
Why?
Well, firstly, Hamels' value is totally dependent on the rest of the market. If the Milwaukee Brewers decline to make Zack Greinke available, then Hamels' worth shoots up because he's the only elite pitcher available. If the New York Yankees decide a rash of injuries to their staff necessitate the acquisition of another top arm, then Hamels' worth shoots up because teams must outbid the Yankees.
But none of this is known on July 2, with 29 days until the deadline.
There also remains a possibility — more realistic than some are led to believe — the Phillies retain Hamels. In a Sunday column, I wrote the Phillies can and should sign him. But they must decide whether they are true players for his services before July 31. If they aren't, trade him for the best available package.
Still, remember, what the best available hitter on last year's market (Carlos Beltran) fetched: One top prospect. Beltran was a rental, much like Hamels. Both are not eligible for draft-pick compensation. Hamels may be a more valuable player than Beltran, but we are not comparing players. We are comparing markets.
Could this summer's market offer more in return? No one knows. Hence, what is the harm in calling other teams to ascertain the current value their potential trade chips? None.
Just make sure it is placed in the proper context.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Trade Pence and Vic for bacon and eggs. Bacon > Pence.— palmyra21- It's amazing that when the Phils acquired Oswalt & Pence during the season... The Phils had to part with all top of the line prospects. Now Hamels, who is a much better asset than either Oswalt or Pence, won't command is strong a deal? Maybe the other GM's also thing Amaro is a shmuck!!— FetchDixon
- @fetch...perhaps it also has to do with the fact that both Owalt and Pence were under team control for 1.5 years instead of 2 months, AND that with the new CBA any team that acquires Hamels and then loses him in free agency will not receive draft pick compensation (a player must be with a team an entire season before it receives compensation). Just a different market and landscape of baseball. Has little to do with how Amaro is appreciated (or unappreciated) by his colleagues. — Eilex826
- Trade him by 7/31, get two prospects, then sign him back as a FA this Christmas since this year is toast anyway.— Bobby G
- Trading Hamels doesn't preclude the possibility that they could sign a free agent pitcher in the off-season for less money who could provide them with just as many wins as Hamels would give them. If they could get a good third baseman for Hamels I'd do it.— Russ
- Fetch, Who said Hamels isnt going to get top prospects? We would get atleast 3 stud prospects from him if not more. I dont see anywhere in the article that says anything less.— CSpangler
- So, the GM trades Lee to Seattle when Halladay was acquired missing a return trip to the WS. But then you had to trade & get Oswalt. Then Amoro gets lucky & gets Lee back. The contracts to Utley & Howard were worth the risk but what is absolutely dumb founding is not picking up a Willingham, Cuddyer, giving Rollins a dumb contract and then you get no bullpen help yet give a closer $50 million. Then you couldn't work out a deal for your #1 pitcher whom grew up in your organization and now his value has gone up so it will probably cost you an extra $10 million than it would have if he got a deal done in the off season. Have the Phillies become the Cubs? It looks that way.— Jay25
- Hamels is not signed long term, so he is worth less on the trade market than Lee, who needs a change of scenery. Victorino isn't signed, either so same with him. Rollins just signed so he is worth more prospects. I am not saying to trade any of them because I think once this team gets healthy, they could make a run at a wild card, at least. They should sign Hamels and Victorino right now and let the team, as constructed fight it out one more time.— Paul SoTX
- Every time you guys say "nothing is happening now" - someone is traded. I just pray is isn't Hamels. If you are building a team (which is the noise all of you writers are making right now), you begin with....anyone?...class? RIGHT! Pitching and defense. Good answer. There is NO BETTER pitcher "available" than Cole Hamels. DON'T DO IT, RUBEN! If you thought the fallout from trading Cliff Lee was bad, if you trade Cole, you'd better go to the shelter.— dwp66
- This will Make or break Amaro. Cole's value has grown by at least $10 million since the offseason. Amaro was phenomenal getting Halladay but then he stupidly dealt Lee which led to having to send prospect for Oswalt & contributed to not making it back to the WS. Then the errors of this offseason. So it's make or break time before we become the Chicago Cubs.— Jay25
- FetcDixon...Oswalt and Pence were under club control for another year. They weren't going to be free agents at the end of the year. That's the difference. A team isn't going to give up a ton if Hamels could walk at the end of the year. If he had aother year on hi contract, the Phillies would be able to get a lot more.— mvp15
- As a 10 an 5 player, Rollins now has a full no-trade clause. I doubt he would be willing to waive it.— mvp15
- How can you spend all that money on players that are HALF— Trot
- How can you spend all that money on players that are HALF— Trot
- Trot, you posted twice and neither post makes any sense.— blaqjaq
