Mailbag: Bullpen, Blanton and Galvis
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Mailbag: Bullpen, Blanton and Galvis
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We're back with another edition of the winter mailbag. There are less than two weeks to spring training, and even though nothing is happening in Phillies Land, there is a clear desire for baseball now that the Super Bowl is over and done with. (And how bad were those commercials? Don Draper fired everyone this morning.)
If you want a question answered in this space, fill out this entry form. Or you can ask me a question on Twitter (@magelb) and it may be included here.
To the queries...
How do you see the last couple of roster spots in the bullpen shaking out?
Kyle from Gilbertsville
Expect to hear a lot about Jose Contreras in spring training because his health will greatly affect the construction of the bullpen. Contreras has yet to throw off a mound in his recovery from elbow surgery last September. The Phillies plan to limit Contreras in spring training; think six appearances instead of 10. Most likely, they will find out how healthy Contreras is sometime in April or May — if he makes it to that point. Publicly, the team has expressed optimism in the 40-year-old's recovery, but the signing of Chad Qualls tells you enough about how they really feel.
The big arms of Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus will be tossed around a lot in spring training, but don't forget about David Herndon. This is a guy who finished with a lower ERA (3.22 to 3.63) than Mike Stutes in almost the same number of innings. He had a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings after the All-Star break. Yes, he was prone to blowups like those consecutive nights in Florida, but he's demonstrated effectiveness.
Also, remember that Dontrelle Willis' spot is not guaranteed. The Phillies can pay only a small portion of his $850,000 contract if they cut him at the end of spring training. Willis' numbers against lefties were great in 2011, but he's never been a full-time reliever. And if someone else like Jake Diekman, Joe Savery, Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst or David Purcey has a dynamite spring, they could win the job. Again, it should speak volumes to the quantity of competition the Phillies have invited to spring training.
Who do you think the fifth starter will be?
D.J. from Bowling Green, Ind.
Well, on paper, Joe Blanton is the guy. Phillies officials maintain he's in good health and ready to pitch more than 41 innings after a mystery elbow injury derailed much of 2011.
But as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com posited last week, Blanton could be trade bait for the second consecutive spring. Why? Well the Phillies are almost certainly above the luxury tax limit as it currently stands. Major League Baseball does not do its final tabulations until after the World Series, so there is time for flexibility.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has claimed the luxury tax threshold of $178 million is a limit for his payroll. So if the team is already over, does that limit them at the July 31 trade deadline?
Moving some of Blanton's salary would be the most logical way to clear headroom. He'll make $8.5 million in 2012, so even if the Phillies only pick up half, they could squeeze under the tax limit (for now). Of course, there are problems with this idea: 1. Blanton must prove he has value in the spring by demonstrating his health. 2. The Phillies must feel comfortable with either Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro, Dave Bush, Austin Hyatt or Pat Misch combining to make 30-odd starts in 2012.
What happens to Freddy Galvis now that Jimmy Rollins is locked up?
Josh from North Wales
Well, firstly, he can spend a full season in Triple-A. Galvis is still only 22 and played just 33 games for the IronPigs in 2011. There is still development with the bat that must happen.
For now, Galvis projects as a utility middle infielder for the Phillies. If Rollins is out for an extended period of time, Galvis (not Michael Martinez) would probably be the one to replace him. A bigger question is how the Phillies would replace Chase Utley if he were to be sidelined again. Galvis has played only shortstop in the minors, but would theoretically be able to switch to second if needed. Still, that's a lot to ask a 22-year-old while making his first trip to the majors. I'll be curious to see if the Phillies give Galvis any time at second during Grapefruit League play or at the minor-league level.
And there's always the possibility that Galvis becomes a trade chip.
I've never been to Clearwater, but everyone keeps telling me Lenny's is the real deal. True?
Bill from Mount Ephraim
Yes. Never question the danish basket. Never.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Please not another spring of hearing about Lenny's— ronin32- I question the comparison of Herndon vs. Stutes on ERA alone. now, I do not have any statistical evidence to support this premise, but my memory tells me that Stutes was brought into meaningful situations, where the outcome of the game was in the balance. he was brought into tight games to protect leads, tie games, etc more often than not. Herndon on the other hand was used more in mop up situations or when the game's outcome was not always in the balance. I just think Stutes was involved in much more stressful innings than Herndon. So comparing on ERA alone I think is not a fair comparison.— Back up the Bus for Gload and Bowker
- Herndon pitched a lot more "low pressure" innings. When he was counted on, it was pretty scary.— dblankj
- Earlier in the year, David Herndon was horrible.
For the second half he was, for the most part, decent.— BEMiller - Herndon has groundball stuff, dp stuff....Stutes has swing and miss stuff...two entirely different pitchers....what about the Oswalt rumor that the Phils are 1 of 3 teams still interested in him??????— Mark1npt
- Even if Blanton is 100% healthy it's wishful thinking that any team would pay half of his $8 million salary. This is a guy who has only twice posted an ERA under 4.00 and that includes a so-so 3.95 in 2007 (the last time he did it). His last two years have been just bad. It's not hard to find a weak No. 5 starter and pay him less than $4 million.
— eman - LMAO brilliant analysis by Gelb on the Blanton question. First he says "Well, on paper, Blanton is the guy"... then he says, "For the second spring he is trade bait"..and.. "Blanton must prove his worth in the spring by demonstrating his health".. Contradict yourself much? And, please, show me the "paper" which says Blanton is "the guy".. I suspect you saw that in the funny papers.. It is about time that you and everyone else give Kendrick the respect he deserves. Kendrick had a brakeout year as spotstarter and middle relief. Kendrick clearly demonstrated that he is ready to handle fifth starter spot better than anyone on the team. Blanton always was and always will be overpaid - giving a guy with a 5+ era 8 million a year. brilliant. just brilliant amaro. — zwarte piet
- I think the best he pitched was the same game where Valdez pitched. I think he sucked up like 5 innings that night. But I hear ya, when they brought him into meaningful situations, more often than not, the outcome was not positive.— Back up the Bus for Gload and Bowker
- Bullpen is such a crapshoot from year to year - but at least the Phils seem to have some live arms, as well as youth, in the pen. They also have alot of options, so if one guy is ineffective, they're seems to be plenty of alternatives. My biggest hope/concern is that bastardo regains his form from the first 90% of 2011; if that happens, they will be completely fine, baring injuries.— CosmoK
- If Utley goes down they would probably stick Pete Orr or the great Hector Luna at second. I would be shocked if Freddy Galvis ever plays any other position than shortstop.— Dull
- Without a doubt he'll play some second base...It will only improve his versatility and value. — bearsfriend
- Matt, the Phils most certainly are not above the luxury tax threshold. Go to Cot's baseball contracts and you will be able to do the same calculation I did. Based on the projected 25 players, with some estimates in there for players with renewed contracts that are not eligible for arbitration, the Phils have at least 10 million to play with right now before reaching the luxury tax limit. I expect them to use a couple miliion on an IF and even with that, they have plenty of room to breathe. Do some research before writing articles please.— robm0202
- I don't know how you did your calculations, and I'll be taking a look later, but did you use salary for only this year? The Luxury Tax is based on AAV not how much a player makes in a certain year.
- Also, non-salary "incentives," signing bonuses, and non-cash compensation all factor into the luxury tax. For a team like the Phillies, this will cover around 10 million (maybe more), so the Phillies are actually brushing up against or over the Luxury Tax. Gelb is correct in his analysis. — pjr
- At least the Phillies won't have to drag BRYZ around all season.— richw38
- Wouldn't surprise me if Oswalt was interested in coming back. You get the feeling that he thinks there is unfinished business here. If his asking prices goes down to 8m I think the Phils try to move a good chunk of Blanton's owed money and resign him for 8.— robm0202
- Pretty interesting that you brought up Austin Hyatt. He has a good chance to be and MLB pitcher. Big guy, live arm, stable personality and approach. Met him briefly in Reading. Hope he gets a good shot in Clearwater.— Bob1
- Oswalt's unfinished business is fleecing the Phils out of more money. He needs a new bulldozer.— jimmymack
Comment removed.- You could give Roy Oswalt a doubtful beneficial in the way you have, but, on the other hand, after 2008, Brad Lidge stole absolutely nothing but ran into some bad luck. — BEMiller
- @robm. pretty aggressive criticism from someone who doesn't realize that the luxury tax exposure for each team is based on the average annual value of contracts, not payroll obligations in a given year. the phils have a little room, but are pretty well maxed out at this point.— CosmoK
- Why don't you ever address the problem of Howard striking out against lefthanders? He should be platooned no matter how much money he makes.— farley
- Ryan Howard is not very good agaist lefties, but over the course of his career his strikeouts against lefthanders or righthanders is proportionate. that said, i'll take his production from 1st base over all but 2 or 3 guys in baseball. i dont care what he gets paid, not my money...— CosmoK
- Comment removed.
- As far as Blanton being spring training trade bait, he usually starts VERY slow in the spring. After 2 IP and 5 ER you'll hear " I was just airing it out, and only throwing my fastball, not worrying about location...."— willll
- This team is 1 year old and the sad thing is hitting did them in. Being shut out in the final game and run production tells the story.
Each year after the WS this team has declined.....Watch for Miami and Washington should be better and don't forget Atlanta....There is no lock to win the division again. They signed a bunch of aging veterans. Either way this should be fun to watch Jim Thome retire in a phillies uniform, perhaps a pinch hit walk off home run will cap a Hall of Fame career not to mention a nice person Jim is.....Real old fashioned baseball player and human.— merchandiser - willll - he must settle down pretty soon after that. These are his Spring ERAs with the Phillies:
2009: 2.67
2010: 3.86
2011: 3.19— schmenkman - Herndon scares me a lot. Granted he pitched very well most of the year. Charlie just got to the point where he trusted him, and was running out of options. he brought him into a close ballgame against Florida on Labor Day Weekend, the first really close, late game I remember he being in, besides extra inning games where all other options were gone. Seemed like Herndon had a chance to turn the corner. Instead, he gave up approximately 9 consecutive HRs. Granted it's one game, but for it to be one of his first pressure situations and see that (from a groundball pitcher), it sticks with me.— Phils Phan 28
- merchandiser -- "This team is 1 year old and the sad thing is hitting did them in. Being shut out in the final game and run production tells the story.
Each year after the WS this team has declined.....Watch for Miami and Washington should be better and don't forget Atlanta....There is no lock to win the division again."
---
Well, we agree that there is no lock to win the division again, since there never is.
The team has actually gotten BETTER each year since the WS. I guess you somehow assume that they should go to the WS every year.
Look at the last 5 playoff appearances of teams that have successful recently:
Cardinals (last 8 years): 3 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
Red Sox (last 8 years): 2 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
PHILLIES (last 5 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
Giants (last 15 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
Yankees (last 6 years): 1 WS appearance, 1 WS win
Rangers (last 16 years): 2 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Angels (last 8 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Dodgers (last 16 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Braves (last 10 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Takeaways from this list:
- The Phillies are the only team to reach the playoffs in each of the past 5 years
- They aren't the best, or the worst, at capitalizing on their playoff chances
- They've actually been more fortunate than 5 of the 8 other teams
Finally, on their offense, for the last 2/3+ of the season last year (i.e. after Utley replaced Valdez/Orr/Martinez), the Phillies had the highest-scoring offense in the league, with among the fewest games with 3 runs or less.
Changes from that lineup:
- full year of Pence
- no Howard to start with
- no more Ibanez and his .707 OPS
- better offense off the bench
So cheer up. No, of course there is no guarantee they'll even win the division. But they're in pretty good shape.— schmenkman - Better offense off the bench?
Obviously you're not figuring Laynce Nix in there!
Laynce Nix? GOOD GRIEF!— BEMiller - I don't think anyone would argue about Oswalt vs Blanton. However, of the two, only one has a World Series ring...Blanton. Oswalt did not seem interested in being part of the Phillies team last season as he was distracted by his father's farm dissaster. With a committment from Roy AND the contract based on innings pitched (bad back folks), maybe he would fit in. If you look at Blanton's record, especially in the 2nd half of 2008/09/10, his numbers are very respectible. Moving Blanton and his contract may prove NOT to be easy. Time will tell, but Oswalt snubbed Philly last year by taking his "leave of absense".— drhoffman
- over past qtr century, Giants, Cowboys and Patriots continue to win SBs; Yankeees, RedSox and Cards continue to win WS; RedWings, Canadiens and Devils continue to win Stanley Cups; Celtics, Lakers and Bulls continue to win championships -- and loser Philly fans act grateful that after inheriting a WS-winning team, Phlllies clueless g.m. has largest budget in league and trades away best prospects just to field a team that can win its division...— warbiscuit
- Redux:
PeaceMuffin...you are in mid season form...Herr Wilhelm Von Humbug the old philosopher himself couldn't have said it better ...:)
— stan the man too 
Has everyone forgotten that Polanco is a Gold Glove 2nd baseman? There is no question who would replace Utley there. Wigginton would then be likely to play 3rd.- Polanco can't bend over to tie his shoes let alone play second. — blaqjaq
- @warbiscuit. YOU are a fool, and your absurd comment does not even justify me elaborating.— CosmoK
- Pity of it is that Laynce Nix is guaranteed a roster spot. BAD signing!
Laynce Nix? GOOD GRIEF!
— BEMiller - I Guess No Postings From King of the World this Spring— Kevinmac
- Really would like to see Ruben go young for a change. Give Dom Brown a shot in left from the get go in spring training. Let Mayberry play first until Howard comes back. Pay some of Blanton's salary to move him to Boston for Luxury tax relief. Give Hyatt or Kendrick a chance to win the fifth starter spot. And then use old Pierre as a pinch runner if he can still run, unlike last season when he was thrown out almost 40% of the time. And he can still do the late inning sac bunter off the bench role. Send Nix to Lehigh Valley and release old Pods to give some young guys a chance to play in the outfield at AAA.— Dull
- BEMiller, while repeatedly saying "Laynce Nix? GOOD GRIEF!" is an interesting schtick, Nix is virtually guaranteed to be better than Raul Ibanez was last year (as much as I like Raul). Both offensively and, especially, defensively.— schmenkman
- WARBISCUIT:You are the only guyon these post who knows anything about baseball.— tobyjoe
- Comment removed.
- See Saw, the last time Lee was close to .500 was in 2009 (14-13), when he was on the last-place Indians for 2/3 of the season.
The Phillies averaged 3.9 runs in Hamels' starts. They averaged 5.6 in Worley's. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last two years, and you're complaining that he's not getting the wins?
Halladay will undoubtedly show his age one day. But he was arguably the best pitcher in the NL last yaer (and many non-Philly analysts did argue that), so he's got a lot of aging to go before he's anywhere near mortal.— schmenkman - the phils will again win their division, but it will be much closer that last year. they have the very best in pitching; four quality starters and one that if healthy can win 12 or 15 games namely joe blanton. the phils are not getting any younger and injuries will play a big part on how successful they will be.— f3408cooky
- Best post ever! Cooky says Blanton could win up to 15 games in 2012! He'd need like 8 runs a game average to do that which, by the way, he has NEVER friggin' done. Blanton by far has been the worst signing Amaro made. $24 million over 3 years for squat?! OK, OK, Cooky. Good one! My sides hurt.
— eman - If he keeps the ball in the park, he can. — mwcnabb
- eman -- Blanton won 16 in 2006. When healthy, he's a solid 3 or 4 starter, and 12-15 wins is well within the realm of possibility.— schmenkman
- I agree, if healty, newly svelte Joe has a shot to win 12-15 this year. No need to feed the Blanton trolls...— marley66
- a lot of teams would love to have Blanton, philly fans r spoiled— dwilly
- First I've heard Galvis referred to as a utility infielder. If I recall, Paul Owens said the same thing about Ryne Sandberg when he traded him to the Cubs.— Firebird7478
- Do you have any other examples of similar statements involving prospects by the Phillies brass besides a trade that happened 30 years ago or are you saying that Galvis = Sandberg? — mwcnabb
- The line in the article, "don't forget about David Herndon" is quite disturbing. I have spent the last two years trying to forget about David Herndon, so I don't really appreciate hearing his name again, at least not in an article about the Phillies.— Jamesallen
- Schmenkman spittin' out the education. Very refreshing to see you tell some of these folks that baseball isn't looked at the same way it was in the 80's and 90's when wins and rbi's were the only stats that mattered!— PHLJA22
- If the Phills had to pay half his salary and got little in return I would keep him. As a fourth or 5th starter he is serviceable. If fully healthy he could win 12-13 games. He would have to prove he's healthy to get much in return.— Don w
