Mailbag: Bullpen, Blanton and Galvis
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Mailbag: Bullpen, Blanton and Galvis
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
We're back with another edition of the winter mailbag. There are less than two weeks to spring training, and even though nothing is happening in Phillies Land, there is a clear desire for baseball now that the Super Bowl is over and done with. (And how bad were those commercials? Don Draper fired everyone this morning.)
If you want a question answered in this space, fill out this entry form. Or you can ask me a question on Twitter (@magelb) and it may be included here.
To the queries...
How do you see the last couple of roster spots in the bullpen shaking out?
Kyle from Gilbertsville
Expect to hear a lot about Jose Contreras in spring training because his health will greatly affect the construction of the bullpen. Contreras has yet to throw off a mound in his recovery from elbow surgery last September. The Phillies plan to limit Contreras in spring training; think six appearances instead of 10. Most likely, they will find out how healthy Contreras is sometime in April or May — if he makes it to that point. Publicly, the team has expressed optimism in the 40-year-old's recovery, but the signing of Chad Qualls tells you enough about how they really feel.
The big arms of Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus will be tossed around a lot in spring training, but don't forget about David Herndon. This is a guy who finished with a lower ERA (3.22 to 3.63) than Mike Stutes in almost the same number of innings. He had a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings after the All-Star break. Yes, he was prone to blowups like those consecutive nights in Florida, but he's demonstrated effectiveness.
Also, remember that Dontrelle Willis' spot is not guaranteed. The Phillies can pay only a small portion of his $850,000 contract if they cut him at the end of spring training. Willis' numbers against lefties were great in 2011, but he's never been a full-time reliever. And if someone else like Jake Diekman, Joe Savery, Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst or David Purcey has a dynamite spring, they could win the job. Again, it should speak volumes to the quantity of competition the Phillies have invited to spring training.
Who do you think the fifth starter will be?
D.J. from Bowling Green, Ind.
Well, on paper, Joe Blanton is the guy. Phillies officials maintain he's in good health and ready to pitch more than 41 innings after a mystery elbow injury derailed much of 2011.
But as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com posited last week, Blanton could be trade bait for the second consecutive spring. Why? Well the Phillies are almost certainly above the luxury tax limit as it currently stands. Major League Baseball does not do its final tabulations until after the World Series, so there is time for flexibility.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has claimed the luxury tax threshold of $178 million is a limit for his payroll. So if the team is already over, does that limit them at the July 31 trade deadline?
Moving some of Blanton's salary would be the most logical way to clear headroom. He'll make $8.5 million in 2012, so even if the Phillies only pick up half, they could squeeze under the tax limit (for now). Of course, there are problems with this idea: 1. Blanton must prove he has value in the spring by demonstrating his health. 2. The Phillies must feel comfortable with either Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro, Dave Bush, Austin Hyatt or Pat Misch combining to make 30-odd starts in 2012.
What happens to Freddy Galvis now that Jimmy Rollins is locked up?
Josh from North Wales
Well, firstly, he can spend a full season in Triple-A. Galvis is still only 22 and played just 33 games for the IronPigs in 2011. There is still development with the bat that must happen.
For now, Galvis projects as a utility middle infielder for the Phillies. If Rollins is out for an extended period of time, Galvis (not Michael Martinez) would probably be the one to replace him. A bigger question is how the Phillies would replace Chase Utley if he were to be sidelined again. Galvis has played only shortstop in the minors, but would theoretically be able to switch to second if needed. Still, that's a lot to ask a 22-year-old while making his first trip to the majors. I'll be curious to see if the Phillies give Galvis any time at second during Grapefruit League play or at the minor-league level.
And there's always the possibility that Galvis becomes a trade chip.
I've never been to Clearwater, but everyone keeps telling me Lenny's is the real deal. True?
Bill from Mount Ephraim
Yes. Never question the danish basket. Never.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Wouldn't surprise me if Oswalt was interested in coming back. You get the feeling that he thinks there is unfinished business here. If his asking prices goes down to 8m I think the Phils try to move a good chunk of Blanton's owed money and resign him for 8.— robm0202- Pretty interesting that you brought up Austin Hyatt. He has a good chance to be and MLB pitcher. Big guy, live arm, stable personality and approach. Met him briefly in Reading. Hope he gets a good shot in Clearwater.— Bob1
- Oswalt's unfinished business is fleecing the Phils out of more money. He needs a new bulldozer.— jimmymack
Comment removed.- You could give Roy Oswalt a doubtful beneficial in the way you have, but, on the other hand, after 2008, Brad Lidge stole absolutely nothing but ran into some bad luck. — BEMiller
- @robm. pretty aggressive criticism from someone who doesn't realize that the luxury tax exposure for each team is based on the average annual value of contracts, not payroll obligations in a given year. the phils have a little room, but are pretty well maxed out at this point.— CosmoK
- Why don't you ever address the problem of Howard striking out against lefthanders? He should be platooned no matter how much money he makes.— farley
- Ryan Howard is not very good agaist lefties, but over the course of his career his strikeouts against lefthanders or righthanders is proportionate. that said, i'll take his production from 1st base over all but 2 or 3 guys in baseball. i dont care what he gets paid, not my money...— CosmoK
- Comment removed.
- As far as Blanton being spring training trade bait, he usually starts VERY slow in the spring. After 2 IP and 5 ER you'll hear " I was just airing it out, and only throwing my fastball, not worrying about location...."— willll
- This team is 1 year old and the sad thing is hitting did them in. Being shut out in the final game and run production tells the story.
Each year after the WS this team has declined.....Watch for Miami and Washington should be better and don't forget Atlanta....There is no lock to win the division again. They signed a bunch of aging veterans. Either way this should be fun to watch Jim Thome retire in a phillies uniform, perhaps a pinch hit walk off home run will cap a Hall of Fame career not to mention a nice person Jim is.....Real old fashioned baseball player and human.— merchandiser - willll - he must settle down pretty soon after that. These are his Spring ERAs with the Phillies:
2009: 2.67
2010: 3.86
2011: 3.19— schmenkman - Herndon scares me a lot. Granted he pitched very well most of the year. Charlie just got to the point where he trusted him, and was running out of options. he brought him into a close ballgame against Florida on Labor Day Weekend, the first really close, late game I remember he being in, besides extra inning games where all other options were gone. Seemed like Herndon had a chance to turn the corner. Instead, he gave up approximately 9 consecutive HRs. Granted it's one game, but for it to be one of his first pressure situations and see that (from a groundball pitcher), it sticks with me.— Phils Phan 28
- merchandiser -- "This team is 1 year old and the sad thing is hitting did them in. Being shut out in the final game and run production tells the story.
Each year after the WS this team has declined.....Watch for Miami and Washington should be better and don't forget Atlanta....There is no lock to win the division again."
---
Well, we agree that there is no lock to win the division again, since there never is.
The team has actually gotten BETTER each year since the WS. I guess you somehow assume that they should go to the WS every year.
Look at the last 5 playoff appearances of teams that have successful recently:
Cardinals (last 8 years): 3 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
Red Sox (last 8 years): 2 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
PHILLIES (last 5 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
Giants (last 15 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
Yankees (last 6 years): 1 WS appearance, 1 WS win
Rangers (last 16 years): 2 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Angels (last 8 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Dodgers (last 16 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Braves (last 10 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
Takeaways from this list:
- The Phillies are the only team to reach the playoffs in each of the past 5 years
- They aren't the best, or the worst, at capitalizing on their playoff chances
- They've actually been more fortunate than 5 of the 8 other teams
Finally, on their offense, for the last 2/3+ of the season last year (i.e. after Utley replaced Valdez/Orr/Martinez), the Phillies had the highest-scoring offense in the league, with among the fewest games with 3 runs or less.
Changes from that lineup:
- full year of Pence
- no Howard to start with
- no more Ibanez and his .707 OPS
- better offense off the bench
So cheer up. No, of course there is no guarantee they'll even win the division. But they're in pretty good shape.— schmenkman - Better offense off the bench?
Obviously you're not figuring Laynce Nix in there!
Laynce Nix? GOOD GRIEF!— BEMiller
