Looking ahead to an interesting 2011
First, let's begin with the positives: On Thursday, the Phillies signed two very fair long-term contracts with two important players -- Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino. The players received decent value for their services and the Phillies didn't overpay and now have a better sense of their future commitments in money.
Looking ahead to an interesting 2011
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
First, let's begin with the positives: On Thursday, the Phillies signed two very fair long-term contracts with two important players -- Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino. The players received decent value for their services and the Phillies didn't overpay and now have a better sense of their future commitments in money.
But...
Not that we like to harp upon the negatives around here, but consider this: The Phillies now have around $129 million guaranteed to 14 players in 2011. That's probably not going to work -- unless the team is willing to significantly expand its budget, which is already at the highest figures in franchise history.
So, something has to give eventually.
We're looking in the general direction of Jayson Werth. Werth, who signed a two-year, $10 million deal to avoid his final year of arbitration last year and buyout his first year of free agency this year, goes onto the market for the first time after the 2010 season. And if he has another season similar to 2009, with 36 home runs, 99 RBI and 20 stolen bases, there should be a handful of teams willing to pay the man decent bucks.
Does the signing of Victorino preclude the Phillies from bringing Werth back? Not necessarily. Werth could take a discounted salary to stay in the fold in Philadelphia and the Phillies could maybe work a trade for Raul Ibanez. But that's a long shot considering Ibanez's age and the fact that the Phillies would probably have to throw in some money in any deal involving Ibanez.
We should find out later Friday what Ruben Amaro Jr. says about the commitment to Victorino. The number of years may be different from his contract and Werth's, but the principle is the same: The Phillies bought out the final arbitration years for each, plus their first year on the free-agent market. Victorino just has less service time, so he had one more year of arbitration left than Werth did.
Here are the players under contract for 2011: Ryan Howard ($20M), Roy Halladay ($20M), Chase Utley ($15.286M), Raul Ibanez ($12.167M), Brad Lidge ($12M), Cole Hamels ($9.5M), Jimmy Rollins ($8.5M), Joe Blanton ($8.5), Shane Victorino ($8.25M -- an estimate), Placido Polanco ($5.417M), Ryan Madson ($4.833M), Danys Baez ($2.750M), Brian Schneider ($1.625M) and Ross Gload ($1.6M).
Amaro said "cost certainty" is a big part of what the team is trying to do. They at least have a good idea of how much money is tied up at this point. Assistant general manager Scott Proefrock was asked about the financial situation and said this was part of the plan.
"You're going to have some money possibly coming off," Proefrock said. "You never know what we're going to with the other cases with some extensions or whatnot. We're certainly aware of the commitments we've made. We've got a substantial amount of money tied up for the next couple of years. And that was part of the plan last year and this year with regards to maximizing our opportunities to keep these teams together, to get back to where we want to go."
Just a thought: For everyone who is still upset about paying Joe Blanton and not Cliff Lee, keep 2011 and beyond in your mind. Knowing the money they had tied up for 2011, the team had an idea it was basically impossible to meet what Lee will bring in free agency next offseason. So instead, the team chose three years of an affordable Joe Blanton along with three prospects over one year of Cliff Lee. Will that backfire? It's certainly possible.
Even if Werth ends up being out of the picture, does the team still have enough flexibility to fill out the rest of the roster for 2011? Or does someone under contract need to be traded to free up cash?
It's all a ways down the road, but nearly every move the Phillies have made this offseason was done with 2011 in mind, too.
**
We're still awaiting official word on the Victorino signing. There should be an announcement some time this morning and we'll pass it along.
You are making a big assumption the Raul Ibanez ($12.167M) and Brad Lidge ($12M) will still be here. Raul will be 38. Brad Lidge had some rough times last year, and his injuries are getting more frequent. I think both will be replaced by Phillies prospects by 2011, and that would free up 24M to sign Werth. No worries mate!— Tom98786- Move Ibanez and keep Werth.— jonnyb0916
- Am I missing something here? There is no salary cap (see Yankees) so why is there all of this talk about limiting the payroll. This is the problem with Phils management. It is really about money and not about winning. If it was about winning, they would pay the $$ to keep this team intact. This franchise has been making so much $$ over the past few years, a few extra million wouldn't hurt the cheap owners. Add to that the taxpayer funded stadium that has added millions to the value of this franchise. That is money the taxpayers will not see back. While I know the Phils have spent to win, they are essentially admitting that after 2010-2011, they are going to take a few years off from trying to win. So be honest when you write these articles. They HAVE the money, it is not like it is not there. It is just they don't want to spend it.— 23
Comment removed.- JJBRETT, take your thumb out of your mouth please. Its a legitimate point to bring up. The fact is that a core player (Werth) is getting ready to get Jason Bay cash and its a realistic concern that the phillies can't keep a young, core player. Why is that being negative?? since this is his contract year people will start asking the phillies what their plans are in respect to Werth. Its inevitable. Contract issues are a major part of any intelligent fans outlook for their team. unless your the yankees or bosox, you just cant field a high priced player at every position. I don't see how they can keep Werth, and Im honestly not sure if he's worth $17 million/year either when you have so many other high priced players already. Its an interesting debate. Rollins is due soon, howard has 2 years left, Ibanez 2 years, Cole 2 years. Who do you keep and let go?— sjmatt99
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- I thought the trading of Michael Taylor cemented the likely retention of JDub. They'll move some money around to accomodate him. He is absolutely needed in this lineup.— Rick Wise Guy
- I like Werth but his numbers are inflated. Playing behind Utley and Howard and half his games in CBP add about 10 homeruns and 20 rbi's a season. He is going to get a lot of money when he signs a deal, with us or somebody else. I don't think he is going to be worth the money he gets.— Bob from SW
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phils mgmt knows what they are doing to almost maximize talent within a projcted budget. i simply dont believe that 3 years of joe blanton for $24 million is better than 1 year of cliff lee for $9.- The Phil's had the chance to overtake the Yankees as baseball's dynasty team simply by keeping Lee. The better your team is the more money the team makes. This is logical business sense but unknown persons of the team's ownership are inept to see the obvious.— Wm Penn
- LOL. Let's all worry about 2011!!! All together now....woe is us, woe is us, woe is us. We have too many good players and we have to paaayyyyyy them! Woe is us. I wonder how these writers get out of bed in the morning without their roadmaps. Maybe the publishers should buy them all GPS's— jjk3
- I dont see RAJ letting Werth go. He is a solid righty in a loaded lefty lineup.— barefoot
- Werth is still improving and capable of an MVP season. He is a key cog in the Phillies lineup crushing lefties while Howard crushes righties. I heard of the Victorino signing and felt this makes it more likely that Werth stays since both Victorino and Blanton were locked up for lower than market contracts. Expect revenues to grow by 15-20% or even more if the economy starts to recover, so the Phillies shouldn't have to dump good players for payroll purposes.— jtj06
- Yes, Hamels and Howard are also free agents after 2011. This team will be radically different in 2012. They should really be going for it in 2010 and/or 2011. Which is another reason why the Lee trade was so puzzling. There just was no logical reason to not keep him for this one year at his bargain salary of $9m.— lefty13153
