Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Mets and four games behind the Brewers with 16 games to play. It feels like last year, except it doesn't.
Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
Todd Zolecki
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East and four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild-card race with just 16 games to play.
They've been in this spot before.
I mean, they were 6 1/2 games behind the Mets with 16 to play last year and won, right?
But that doesn't mean it is easy. In fact, the Phillies are slowly moving into long shot territory. Baseball Prospectus figures the Phillies have just a 16.5 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point, while the Mets have a 92 percent chance and the Brewers have an 80.7 percent chance. If the Mets go 9-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them. If the Brewers, who are wound about as tight as a drum right now, go 8-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies again would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them.
It would be a lot to ask the Mets to blow two big leads two years in a row.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers blow it. They have a history of playing poorly in the second half under Ned Yost.
"Last year, we were hot," Charlie Manuel said. "We could score runs, and it seemed like we had enough pitching to get through. We were playing good. . . . We really got after it. Our team this year, when you're struggling to pitch and score runs, that's tough. But at the same time, I've seen us bounce back. We always have."
It must start tonight. The Phillies must take at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers this weekend. A split would mean the Phillies would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to tie the Brewers, if they went just 6-6. Win the first two at Citizens Bank Park, and I'd bet the panic spreads in the Brewers clubhouse and they start worrying about being swept. They don't have CC Sabathia available to bail them out this weekend, either.
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Manuel said the team hasn't had that energy or life recently. Phil Sheridan has a few theories why that is happening.
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In the Phillies Notebook: the Phillies need a starter for Sunday, and I think it could be Brett Myers on short rest. Hey, why not? The Phillies are in a hole. Might as well roll the dice. Also, Carlos Carrasco is in Venezuela (should he be here?) and Tom Gordon is throwing again.
Wally....Why not on offbeat hybrid that acknowledges their history and ours....the Philly rAys— bski- bski -- What ever it is I think the fans get to decide not some bank.— Wally 24
- bski -- What ever it is I think the fans get to decide not some bank.— Wally 24
- Is Franklin field still standing? If so knock it down ad build a park there!— Wally 24
- Call them what you want, just get them pitching and hitting so they can win, unlike the current team we have. Also, hire a manager who knows something about the game, PLEASE— jeff gross
- So how are they doing it?— Wally 24
- Well before that last I meant to say: The Marlins go through players and managers like its nothing. Yet they stay competitive most years. Its not for the money. So how are they doing it?— Wally 24
- Wally: They invest what money they have in the farm system, top prospects, good scouts, excellent instructors, etc. They develop quality young players, then, when they are close, they spend big money for one year to bring in a hired gun or two to put them over the top, then sell off the parts before the young talent reaches arbitration and gets too expensive, or before they reach FA.— RollinsWasRight
- Rollins -- My cousin lives in Miami and he says there is never a crowd at the games. What we have witnessed on TV is fact. So one additional question is without the gate receipts is their money coming from revenue sharing?— Wally 24
- Phils should sign that "hammer weilding psycho" from septa for pinch hit situations.— Johnny Lawrence
- Any protest has to start small, people won't give up tickets already bought to prove a point. Banners won't be allowed, even the T-shirts may fall under the "not acceptable" ruling. But if they get another national home game on TV, a between inning walkout might be effective. A friend suggested a total boycott of concessions for fan appreciation day. Gotta publicize it ahead of time (finally a use for WIP) and then go for it. Small steps. But truthfully, these owners won't change and next year the Mets will be able to spend Yankee type money, so we are so screwed.— jimmymack
- Any news on who the starting pitcher will be on Sunday? I hope maybe, Happ. I thought that's why they beought him up. Couldn't stand the little, "I swallowed a big pill" comment from Eaton! Would he have rather sat out the rest of the season and watched someone else vie for his job? Let him sit NOW and boo hoo!— Norma
- The past two or three weeks the Phils have blown 5 or 6 games in the 7th or 8th inning. This at the end of the season will be the reason the Phils don't make the playoffs. Who do we pick upneeding relief help....Eyres how much did he cost? minimum salary right? TOO CHEAP TO SPEND, TOO CHEAP TO WIN THEN. 2009 SLOGAN suggestion..MEDIOCRE CAN WIN !!!!!!!— Trot
- Wally.....Definitely agree about moving Chase back to the 2 hole! For whatever reason, it worked. My thought is, it took a little pressure off of him to knock in a run if Jimmy or Vic was on base. He's had the pressure on him, for so long, to *carry the team*. Gotta get in his head after a while. As for *Aces*.....I've been saying for a while that it was a split between Myers/Moyer. Again, Hamels is a DIVA! Wonder if his jersey sales have dropped lately?— Norma
When it comes to fan protests, no symbolic boycott, walkout, picket march will do. First off, very few people will actually participate, and second, the ownership knows it's only symbolic. Those very same people will be buying food, tickets, parking, etc. the very next day. Only one form of protest really works, and it's the kind that isn't really protest. It's a lack of interest that translates into lower ticket sales across a season or more. It's like those e-mails urging a gas boycott on a certain day. Ridiculous. That would have no effect at all, just as a 'concessions boycott' would have none. The sad truth is that the formula the Phillies follow is working. Stay just competitive enough, without spending the really big bucks, to keep the massses coming to the ballpark. That's smart business. It's just lousy sports.— bobby
