Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Mets and four games behind the Brewers with 16 games to play. It feels like last year, except it doesn't.
Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
Todd Zolecki
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East and four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild-card race with just 16 games to play.
They've been in this spot before.
I mean, they were 6 1/2 games behind the Mets with 16 to play last year and won, right?
But that doesn't mean it is easy. In fact, the Phillies are slowly moving into long shot territory. Baseball Prospectus figures the Phillies have just a 16.5 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point, while the Mets have a 92 percent chance and the Brewers have an 80.7 percent chance. If the Mets go 9-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them. If the Brewers, who are wound about as tight as a drum right now, go 8-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies again would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them.
It would be a lot to ask the Mets to blow two big leads two years in a row.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers blow it. They have a history of playing poorly in the second half under Ned Yost.
"Last year, we were hot," Charlie Manuel said. "We could score runs, and it seemed like we had enough pitching to get through. We were playing good. . . . We really got after it. Our team this year, when you're struggling to pitch and score runs, that's tough. But at the same time, I've seen us bounce back. We always have."
It must start tonight. The Phillies must take at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers this weekend. A split would mean the Phillies would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to tie the Brewers, if they went just 6-6. Win the first two at Citizens Bank Park, and I'd bet the panic spreads in the Brewers clubhouse and they start worrying about being swept. They don't have CC Sabathia available to bail them out this weekend, either.
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Manuel said the team hasn't had that energy or life recently. Phil Sheridan has a few theories why that is happening.
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In the Phillies Notebook: the Phillies need a starter for Sunday, and I think it could be Brett Myers on short rest. Hey, why not? The Phillies are in a hole. Might as well roll the dice. Also, Carlos Carrasco is in Venezuela (should he be here?) and Tom Gordon is throwing again.
The only way you'll get this ownership to sell the team is by leaving the stands. If they are as concerned only with making money as many people say they are, the way to hit them where it hurts is not to show up, regardless of how the Phillies play. Chances of that working are almost zero....the owners have a saftey net because corporate ticket sales are higher than ever. Too many people will continue to go to games and they will make money.— GHOSTPHAYCE- I wonder what it takes to make a post to this column?— Wally 24
- GHOSTPHAYCE: I don't necessarily agree. I mean, basically, I agree. But they can be hurt by a drop in attendance, even if it doesn't get to the level of the Florida Marlins. They signed Jim Thome to seel tickets in the new ballpark, and thought it worked. They sold plenty of tickets its first year. But when the season ended in failure, and they did nothing in the off-season, they saw a dramatic drop in attendance the next year, and had to fire Ed Wade, which we knew they didn't want to, just to win back a few fans. And that helped, but not enough, so they upped the budget a bit. This new ballpark was VERY expensive, and is likely very costly to operate. They need all these sellouts. If people stay away, it will make a difference. The problem is they still have to option of moving the team rather than selling it, but I don't know if they would be allowed now that they have taken over $200M of city and state money to build that place. Plus, they hide because they don't want to be known, to be ripped, to receive negative press, so let them have it as best you can as often as you can. It's a long shot, but they just might get tired of it.— RollinsWasRight
- Rollins, I like that slogan. If you can persuade a radio personality, Angelo Cataldi comes to mind, with your idea it can work. Ownership cannont hide forever. It will get their attention. In the meantime, this forum can keep the pressure on.— EL Zorro
- Down with Claire Betts, the Buck brothers, Bill Giles, John Middleton and David Montgomery!! This ownership has got to go; hey hey, ho ho!— RollinsWasRight
- Let's print some t-shirts, hats, bumper stickers, flyers, posters and buttons with the slogan, Rolls. Make sure you get the rights to it, though.— EL Zorro
- Wally, maybe Charlie Manuel is in charge of this forum and he is saving your comment for tomorrow!— EL Zorro
- Without runs no pitcher wins. There are a few things obvious about this line up. First, last month Utley was moved from #3 to #2 in the order. For 2 weeks he hit at a .365 clip and during that time Rollins came back to life and his average started to climb. Since the 1st game of the NY series Utley has been moved back to #3 and is hitting a lusty .166. They had Burrell at #3 when Utley was at #2 but Pat is in a horrible slump and they couldn't afford to keep him there. Werth was an interim fix but he is too undisciplined to leave there day to day. So I'm going to add my two cents worth here. Move Utley back to #2 and platoon Dobbs & Werth at #3. All that is neededis to swap them from 3rd to 7th in the order. An all righty order will be Rollins, Utley, Werth, Howard, Burrell, Victorino, Feliz, Coste/Ruiz,& Pitcher. The all lefty would be Rollins, Utley, Dobbs, Howard, Stairs/Jenkins, Victorino, Werth, Ruiz/Coste, Pitcher. Since Aug 29th Howard is hitting.375 with 6 HRs 6 doubles, 14 RBIs and a .914 Slug %. Anyone hitting on front of him will get pitches to hit so moving runners should not be a problem. Then let Ryan do what he does best drive in runs.— Wally 24
- Zorro: That is actually an intriguing idea. Especially since I used to work for a Patent, Copyright & Trademark Law Firm. I know how to trademark a slogan. Set up a nice website to sell them nice and cheap. Hrmm...— RollinsWasRight
- Actually, now that I think about it, I don't think you can trademark a slogan if it is used, for example, as a saying on a T-shirt. I think it has to clearly identify the source of goods/services, if I recall the wording correctly.— RollinsWasRight
- RWR, I agree about Hamels. I know I have defended Hamels. I know that this is the first time in his career he will have made it through an entire season without an injury. I know he is leading the league in innings pitched. That said, if he truly wants to achieve his goals of winning 20 games, Cy Young awards, being considered the staff ace, etc....he has got to step up. If a head case like Myers and a 45 year old are stepping up, you have to be there as well. If you really want to be considered an ace you should be the first one to step up but, as long as he does, I’ll take it. This is where your identity is forged, where your reputation is made (both on your team and around the league), and where you show that you not only have what it takes but that you will also not hesitate to bring it when your team needs it.— bski
- Wally I saw that post, and I respond it to it. I don't remember where. Good stuff. I read somewhere that the Phillies had way too many line-up changes. It seems, that every time a player is hot, Charlie changes the line-up and that player somehow cools down. I would prefer a much steady line-up, more consistency. Baseball is hard, and is even harder when a player comes to the park and don’t know where he is going to hit, let along if he is going to play.— EL Zorro
- Also, these comments from Manuel: “I think the difference is that last year we were hot,” Charlie Manuel, the Phillies manager, said after yesterday’s loss. “And we were consistent. We could score more runs. And we had enough pitching to get through. But we were hot and playing good and very energetic and full of life and really got after it. Our team this year . . . “ Manuel paused. “If you remember, we were very resilient,” he said. “We could come right back at you. We still could do those things but at the same time not as much as last year.” ......and from Myers: “We have to stop pressing so much,” said yesterday’s hard-luck starter, Brett Myers. “If we have fun, the wins will come.” “It’s like we’re trying to make up ground in one game instead of having fun in the game,” Myers said. “We have to have fun, not put pressure on ourselves, and win some ball games.”.......Both of these guys are in the clubhouse every day and should have a pretty good read on the collective psyche of the team. To hear them say things like that tells me that we won’t be seeing any magic this year. While they might not be a defeated club yet, it seems as though they are at least deflated.— bski
- Zorro -- What a waste of a season this has been. First the Victorino get your mind right thing, then the series of Rollins unprofessionalism, then the Myers thing, plus the never ending diversions put up by the organization to keep focused in areas that really don't matter. The Dr.Jekel/Mr.Hyde performance of the team through the last 4 months of the season. In all my years I've seen a lot of really bad teams but you knew they were bad. This team acts like there is dissention among the troops which would explain everything. I guess we'll find out about it in the off season.— Wally 24
- One of the reasons this year is different is because we are the Division champions, and there is extra pressure to defend. There are other reasons. For example, too many distractions before and during the season. Howard and Hamels's arbitration negotiations, the Charlie saga with Rollins and to some extent with Myers, Victorino and Burrell, the struggles of Eaton and Myers, Utley and Rollins. It's hard to play loose with all that in your mind. Also, I am a strong believer in a set line-up. Charlie is being playing musical chairs with the line-up all season, and is not because of injuries.— EL Zorro
