Thursday, February 11, 2016

Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year

The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Mets and four games behind the Brewers with 16 games to play. It feels like last year, except it doesn't.

Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year

Brett Myers gave a gritty performance on the mound, leaving in the eighth with one out and the score tied at 3-3.
Brett Myers gave a gritty performance on the mound, leaving in the eighth with one out and the score tied at 3-3. YONG KIM / Philadelphia Daily News

The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East and four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild-card race with just 16 games to play.

They've been in this spot before.

I mean, they were 6 1/2 games behind the Mets with 16 to play last year and won, right?

But that doesn't mean it is easy. In fact, the Phillies are slowly moving into long shot territory. Baseball Prospectus figures the Phillies have just a 16.5 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point, while the Mets have a 92 percent chance and the Brewers have an 80.7 percent chance. If the Mets go 9-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them. If the Brewers, who are wound about as tight as a drum right now, go 8-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies again would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them.

It would be a lot to ask the Mets to blow two big leads two years in a row.

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers blow it. They have a history of playing poorly in the second half under Ned Yost.

But there is no question yesterday's 7-3 loss to the Marlins put the Phillies a little deeper in the hole.

"Last year, we were hot," Charlie Manuel said. "We could score runs, and it seemed like we had enough pitching to get through. We were playing good. . . . We really got after it. Our team this year, when you're struggling to pitch and score runs, that's tough. But at the same time, I've seen us bounce back. We always have."

It must start tonight. The Phillies must take at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers this weekend. A split would mean the Phillies would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to tie the Brewers, if they went just 6-6. Win the first two at Citizens Bank Park, and I'd bet the panic spreads in the Brewers clubhouse and they start worrying about being swept. They don't have CC Sabathia available to bail them out this weekend, either.


Manuel said the team hasn't had that energy or life recently. Phil Sheridan has a few theories why that is happening.


In the Phillies Notebook: the Phillies need a starter for Sunday, and I think it could be Brett Myers on short rest. Hey, why not? The Phillies are in a hole. Might as well roll the dice. Also, Carlos Carrasco is in Venezuela (should he be here?) and Tom Gordon is throwing again.

We encourage respectful comments but reserve the right to delete anything that doesn't contribute to an engaging dialogue.
Help us moderate this thread by flagging comments that violate our guidelines.

Comment policy: comments are intended to be civil, friendly conversations. Please treat other participants with respect and in a way that you would want to be treated. You are responsible for what you say. And please, stay on topic. If you see an objectionable post, please report it to us using the "Report Abuse" option.

Please note that comments are monitored by staff. We reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable. Personal attacks, especially on other participants, are not permitted. We reserve the right to permanently block any user who violates these terms and conditions.

Additionally comments that are long, have multiple paragraph breaks, include code, or include hyperlinks may not be posted.

Read 0 comments
comments powered by Disqus
About this blog

The place for up-to-the-minute Phillies coverage from The Inquirer's beat writers and columnists.

Jake Kaplan Inquirer Staff Writer
Bob Brookover Inquirer Columnist
Marc Narducci Inquirer Staff Writer
Matt Breen Staff Writer
Latest Videos:
Also on
letter icon Newsletter