Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Mets and four games behind the Brewers with 16 games to play. It feels like last year, except it doesn't.
Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
Todd Zolecki
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East and four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild-card race with just 16 games to play.
They've been in this spot before.
I mean, they were 6 1/2 games behind the Mets with 16 to play last year and won, right?
But that doesn't mean it is easy. In fact, the Phillies are slowly moving into long shot territory. Baseball Prospectus figures the Phillies have just a 16.5 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point, while the Mets have a 92 percent chance and the Brewers have an 80.7 percent chance. If the Mets go 9-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them. If the Brewers, who are wound about as tight as a drum right now, go 8-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies again would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them.
It would be a lot to ask the Mets to blow two big leads two years in a row.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers blow it. They have a history of playing poorly in the second half under Ned Yost.
"Last year, we were hot," Charlie Manuel said. "We could score runs, and it seemed like we had enough pitching to get through. We were playing good. . . . We really got after it. Our team this year, when you're struggling to pitch and score runs, that's tough. But at the same time, I've seen us bounce back. We always have."
It must start tonight. The Phillies must take at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers this weekend. A split would mean the Phillies would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to tie the Brewers, if they went just 6-6. Win the first two at Citizens Bank Park, and I'd bet the panic spreads in the Brewers clubhouse and they start worrying about being swept. They don't have CC Sabathia available to bail them out this weekend, either.
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Manuel said the team hasn't had that energy or life recently. Phil Sheridan has a few theories why that is happening.
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In the Phillies Notebook: the Phillies need a starter for Sunday, and I think it could be Brett Myers on short rest. Hey, why not? The Phillies are in a hole. Might as well roll the dice. Also, Carlos Carrasco is in Venezuela (should he be here?) and Tom Gordon is throwing again.
I agree Wally.— EL Zorro- Wally, how is Werth "undisciplined" when he leads MLB in pitches seen per at bat? ...or maybe he's second behind Swisher, but either way, you're wrong about Werth. However, I do agree with your basic idea...Rollins-Utley-Werth-Howard. Werth's not the ideal 3-hole hitter, but right now, with Burrell struggling the way he is, this is the only option.— Billy The Kid
- Guys I think any sort of protest is justified but be sure to do the stuff that gets the most mileage for the money. I also believe Charlie and company have to go. We need to persue that ACE pitcher in the off season and a right hand bat that hits above .300. Send Shane out to Gwynn for lessons and make decisions on fringe players. Its also time to pay some of these guys who play every day big league salaries.— Wally 24
- Billy -- He does a lot of guess hitting based on scouting reports and pitch count. If he just stood in there and hit what he saw he'd be hitting close to .300 at season end. I think Jason will be even better next year but right now he is vulnerable at times.— Wally 24
- just got back from buying a coffin for the phils. THey are definately dead!! Please notice teh difference between Cole, Moyer and Myers. Cole, when asked about pitching, says he'll think on it and decide, Moyer says nothing and just does, and Myers says, "i'll pitch tomorrow if they ask me. Anything to get into the playoffs" Darte I say that Myers is the ace of the team and Cole the number 3 pitcher?— jeff gross
- RWR -- A few observations: -- good stuff. One other thought. Phils organization should wait till these players are actually stars before they start attaching that label to them. Sometime I think the added pressure to be something you haven't achieved yet is more than they can handle.— Wally 24
- Jeff -- I'm enjoying the comedy routine you should take it on the road. I agree Hamels has a lot to learn as do a lot of other young players. Brett and Jamie are setting the kind of example we need I just hope this team has enough heart to step up.— Wally 24
- anyone notice this quote in today's paper? "The fans are very passionate about their sports here and they recognize guys that enjoy playing the game hard. Obviously, football is a little different than baseball, but fans like to see that you care" This was Utely giving advise to DeSean Jackson. Utley gets it. We like our players, who make millions, to show they care. Unfortunately, this is the Phillies problem, very few of the players actually do care— jeff gross
- Yes, Billy. Werth sees a lot of pitches. But there is a different depending on where you hit in the line-up. You need to see a lot of pitches if you're leading off or batting second, or leading off an inning. But when you are in a power spot, you have to take advantage of those first pitch fastballs, especially with men on base. The other day he got good pitches to hit with men on third and first. He got the count to 3-2 and tried to hit the ball to rightfield and hit a lazy flyball. In that situation he has to drive the ball hard somewhere to the outfield. Right now, I like him a lot more as a 2 hitter that can use his patience and speed a little more, than as a power guy thinking too much out there. He’ll get there though.— EL Zorro
- RollinsWasRight, I agree with that. I definitely hate how the current ownership does business. I think they have an obligation to do better. If you take $200M of state and local money, I think you should be subject to a referendum on the ballot that could overturn your right to own the franchise. I would love to see it put to a vote, it would be great if they were forced to sell the team in shame. I realize that is far-fetched, but I think if you take public funds, you should have to answer to the public.— GHOSTPHAYCE
- Another thought on GHOSTPHAYCE's point about a drop in attendance not hurting the team, what if there was an organized group of fans boycotting not only the team, but their sponsors as well? It would be difficult, you would need a large contingent of people to make a dent, but if W.B. Mason and Comcast and the like knew they were losing business from people who are boycotting Phillies sponsorship, the Phillies would in turn losing advertising dollars.— RollinsWasRight
- RollinsWasRight makes a great point about Moyer asking for the ball versus Hamels ("show me the money") having to be asked to pitch against the Mets recently. Also, Uncle Charlie should shut it about the fans who put up with the team turning a 7.5 game lead to a 3.5 game deficit, all while waiting 45 minutes for overprice crab fries. The problem is that the "star" players are batting well below last season's norm, management got cheap in the off-season and the mid-season pickup of Blanton was a disaster. Now, the pen is taking on water after giving 110% effort all season.— Steve Jeltz
- I think when the Tampa Bay Rays move here we should call them the Philly Blues, short for Blue Collars.— Wally 24
Well, as cynical as I can sometimes get, I am not one to throw in the towel just yet. I'll hang in until it's over. And who knows, maybe something magical happens? But I'm also not out of touch. This team obviously has a different feel from last year's at this time. Funny how they're in better shape in the standings technically, but from a morale standpoint you'd have to say they are worse off than last year. I know this: I've been a lifelong Phils fan, probably making it to an average of 4-5 games a year along the way. Based on last year's performance I went to more games this season (by far) than I ever had before. At this point can anyone guess the direction of that trend next year? Oh, I'll always follow the team, but there comes a point where you start to feel like you're being played by management. I can assure you that if they don't appear to be committed to winning, I will be quite happy to save my money and stay home. Oh, um... Let's Go Phils!!!!— bobby- Bobby you just need a sit down with Dave Montgomery and you'll feel lots better about your fleecing.— Wally 24
