Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Mets and four games behind the Brewers with 16 games to play. It feels like last year, except it doesn't.
Like Last Year, Not Like Last Year
Todd Zolecki
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East and four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild-card race with just 16 games to play.
They've been in this spot before.
I mean, they were 6 1/2 games behind the Mets with 16 to play last year and won, right?
But that doesn't mean it is easy. In fact, the Phillies are slowly moving into long shot territory. Baseball Prospectus figures the Phillies have just a 16.5 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point, while the Mets have a 92 percent chance and the Brewers have an 80.7 percent chance. If the Mets go 9-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them. If the Brewers, who are wound about as tight as a drum right now, go 8-8 the rest of the way, the Phillies again would have to finish 12-4 just to tie them.
It would be a lot to ask the Mets to blow two big leads two years in a row.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers blow it. They have a history of playing poorly in the second half under Ned Yost.
"Last year, we were hot," Charlie Manuel said. "We could score runs, and it seemed like we had enough pitching to get through. We were playing good. . . . We really got after it. Our team this year, when you're struggling to pitch and score runs, that's tough. But at the same time, I've seen us bounce back. We always have."
It must start tonight. The Phillies must take at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers this weekend. A split would mean the Phillies would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to tie the Brewers, if they went just 6-6. Win the first two at Citizens Bank Park, and I'd bet the panic spreads in the Brewers clubhouse and they start worrying about being swept. They don't have CC Sabathia available to bail them out this weekend, either.
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Manuel said the team hasn't had that energy or life recently. Phil Sheridan has a few theories why that is happening.
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In the Phillies Notebook: the Phillies need a starter for Sunday, and I think it could be Brett Myers on short rest. Hey, why not? The Phillies are in a hole. Might as well roll the dice. Also, Carlos Carrasco is in Venezuela (should he be here?) and Tom Gordon is throwing again.
Dear Todd, Please inform the Phillies that if Kyle Kendrick starts on Sunday September 14, CyHamels and his closest associates will no longer be providing ticket revenue to said team for 2009 and beyond. Regards, CyHamels— CyHamels- A few observations: 1 - In light of Charlie Manuel's comments that the fans have been flat since the Mets series, I would like to thank the fans for holding out that long, considering the team has been flat since the Red Sox series in June ... 2 - I wonder if Cole Hamels noticed what I noticed yesterday: that a 45 yr. old is willing to pitch on short rest (3 days) tonight because the team needs him to, that an oft-vilified head-case barely 6 weeks removed from a minor league, ego bruising, mental rehab assignment is volunteering to pitch on short rest (3 days), or even shorter rest (2 days), if the team needs him to, while the 24-yr. old "Ace" of the staff has to have a 48 hour political roundtable over whether or not to pitch on regular rest (4 days) when the team needs him. Perhaps *I* was wrong... perhaps the criticism of Cole last week wasn't as out of line as I suspected. My apologies to everyone who was upset with him.— RollinsWasRight
- Down with Claire Betts, the Buck brothers, Bill Giles, John Middleton and David Montgomery!— RollinsWasRight
- What genius lined things up so that all the Phillies right handers pitched against the Marlins (who like to hit righties) and all the left handers will pitch against the Brewers (who like to hit lefties).— JayW
- RWR - I second your observations. Moyer once again proves whata pro he is and a team player. Myers also followed his lead. I also thought Myers comments about the team being a bit tense and needing to play a bit looser was a good observation. They played that way last year because they were further back and probably thought there was only a very slim chance of them winning the division and/wild-card. Maybe now that things seem much direr--they'll play ala the Marlins with a "nothing to loss" attitude and they'll get better results.— KarenA
- Is anyone else tired of reading all of these articles everyday, taking the time to thoughtfully respond only to have your comment never show up or show up an hour later? If I'm correct, THIS comment will show up rather than my baseball-related comments.— MrPhillie
- Can't you just picture Gillick and Amaro siting around counting on Gordon being back up next week to help? Or putting Adam "I swallowed a big pill to accept the (minors) option" Eaton back in the rotation? Amaro sees no reason for Carrasco to be here. Charlie and Dubee are gonna pull a Gene Mauch and pitch everyone on short rest...man, I am starting to feel the goosebumps again.— jimmymack
- This season feels the exact opposite of last season - because last season we were slowly making a run and this season we are slowly giving it away. Going in totally opposite directions - and it feels that way.— Gary Varsho
- I am sick to my stomach right now. We can't get out of the 8th inning. And we are flat? Maybe if your team gave us something to cheer about we would not be so flat.— Beef69
- Yes, that happens to me once in a while, MrPhillie. At the beginning, it happened more often. That’s why you see the same come multiple times. They rout the comments for any improprieties and then decide to post it or not. But, I like the idea they let us express our opinions. Some writers, I think, use it as a feedback. Have you noticed they have write stuff mentioned by some of us. Like the Carrasco thing today (Zo), and the Phillies management the other day (Bob Ford), about promising to do something meaningful before the TD and did virtually nothing. We have been talking about that for the last couple of weeks. You got to like that.— EL Zorro
- Gary Varsho: "This season feels the exact opposite of last season" ... ... Exactly. 2008 Phillies = 2007 Mets. The Mets last year were ahead big in June, and relaxed, and got complacent, and couldn't find it at the end when they needed it. The Phillies this year... same thing. The only difference is the Mets made their big run in July, rather than September, so to the rest of the baseball world, it looks less dramatic. Same movie, but the actors have been cast in different roles this time.— RollinsWasRight
Comment removed.- Don't blame the fans. These are supposed to be professional players. They are being payed big bucks. Perhaps they aren't good enough. Perhaps they were just lucky last year. You can't expect good teams like the the Mets (who have a larger payroll) to collapse again. This is what it means to be a Phillies fan: Frustration at only having a chance every 15 years or so of making the playoffs, watching other teams sign big name free agents while the Phillies play it cheap, signing lesser talent players, realizing that the Phillies farm system is never good enough. This is the fault of the management of this team. Get used to it--- the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The Phils will soon be at the bottom of the division again while the owners count their money. Sorry, it's impossible to be optimistic with this team after 45 years.— James TL
- James TL: Like I said earlier, "Down with Claire Betts, the Buck brothers, Bill Giles, John Middleton and David Montgomery!"— RollinsWasRight
- Can we start a protest rally? "This ownership has got to go, Hey hey, Ho ho" is starting to sound like a catchy tune to me.— RollinsWasRight
