Just the facts: Something was indeed wrong with Hamels this year
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Just the facts: Something was indeed wrong with Hamels this year
Everyone knows that Cole Hamels did not pitch well last night. But there appears to be a growing debate on whether anything is "wrong" with Hamels. Recently, Baseball Prospectus's Matt Swartz presented a thorough and interesting study of Hamels' performance, and concluded that the pitcher's regular season was not significantly different from 2008. He cited many stats like BABIP that are more useful than wins and earned run average. He made many valid points, as BP writers usually do, and I learned a lot while reading it. And he was right: In some ways, Hamels' issues have been overstated.
Yesterday morning, smart baseball man Rob Neyer made an argument similar to Swartz's, but used hyperbole to misrepresent an Inquirer story. He cited Jim Salisbury's report that Hamels planned to learn a new pitch next year, then mocked the idea that something is wrong with Hamels as "simply preposterous."
Neyer went on to present a tired caricature--the equivalent of labeling bloggers as losers in their mothers' basement--of baseball writers as having a "sick, 20th century obsession with wins and losses and ERA."
I think you readers would agree that no Philly sportswriter has argued this year that wins and ERA represent what has been wrong with Hamels. Salisbury cited wins and ERA, but only as a small part of a nuanced argument. So let's cast aside petty stereotypes--isn't it so, like, 2004 to say that newspaper writers don't care about statistical analysis?--and look at the facts. Here is a partial list of what was wrong with Hamels in 2009:
--He had a sore elbow in March, April and May. I know that because he told me later in the summer.
--He did not begin training until later than usual, because he took on too many post-World Series commitments.
--Even on days when his pitches were working, he responded poorly to adverse circumstances, and allowed bad innings to snowball. He admits this, and his manager, GM and coach agree. It is also obvious from watching his body language.
--Though his velocity was as good as last year, he has to overthrow to get his fastball in the low-90s. That sometimes resulted in poor location and home runs allowed.
--The lack of a quality third pitch allowed hitters to guess what was coming. Take A-Rod last night: Hamels started him off with a change-up for strike one, so the hitter figured he would see a fastball within the next few pitches. When one arrived on the next pitch, A-Rod was ready, and clocked it into the Jeffrey Maier camera.
It is factually incorrect to say that nothing was wrong with Hamels this year; at the very least, his elbow hurt. I'm not writing this to rip the pitcher, or pile on after a bad night--I actually admire his self-awareness and find his struggle for maturity fascinating and his honesty refreshing. I just felt a responsibility to correct the record on a point important to the Phillies, and hopefully to restore a more reasonable tone to the debate.
You're missing the point, or not understanding the issue correctly. The perception that something is wrong is predicated on an analysis of stats that obfuscate truth(W/L and ERA). Regardless of elbow injuries or whatever aches and pains every pitcher goes through the facts are as such: Hamels 09 has a higher rate of strikeouts, and groundballs. He also has a lower rate of walks, home runs, and line drives. His FB Velo is down a .2mph The basic issue here is that you are looking for an solution to a problem that doesn't exist. And in doing so we see articles about adding pitches, or tipping pitches, or some pop-psychology. It's just bad luck. The hits are dropping in at a slightly above average rate, something Hamels has no control over. Sorry there is no lede or interesting narrative to weave around it, but these are the facts.— Either/Or- wats wrong with hammels and what will always be wrong with hammel,unless he grows up,is his obvious lack of maturity,in his life and most importantly in his career,he was shown the money and decided to retire.— soliteryman
- Didn't Steve Carlton go through a similiar cycle in 72-73? In '72, Lefty was 27-10, and in '73 he went 13-20. The sudden fame, the off-season banquet circuit, etc. threw him off his game and there was little in the way of physical/mental preparation. Hopefully it is the same with Hamels. The only difference, I suspect, is that Hamels seemed to get everything easy in life, and adversity is something with which he cannot deal. Hopefully he will learn coping skills through the bad times and come back roaring in '10.— Manor2009
- Either - are you serious.. bad luck????? It's bad luck that Cole has innings where hits continually 'drop in'?????? It's bad luck that he gives up big innings and get taters hit against him all the time??? A guy with his change-up has to have a fastball that keeps you off the change. AND his curveball is useless, outside of a surprise strike. These guys sit on pitches and crush them. PLUS - Cole's placement is terrible (health-related? maybe) If Cole is going to keep guys off-balance - his fastball has to gain velocity and he needs to have different planes to throw the curve - ie, how about the curve starting at the plane of the batter's waist, and dropping into the ground...— AllDawk_AllTheTime
- He must get another go-to pitch to compliment the change-up. His fastball isn't strong enough to cover up the lack of a 3rd pitch.— psuwelsh
- Andy - I agree with everything you say except the part where you call Neyer smart. I think you meant arrogant. This is a maturation process, mentally, physically, plain and simple. Cole Hamels will adjust and be great again and this season will be tribulation that makes him a complete pitcher and person. Cliff Lee was sent to the minors. Jamie Moyer, released. Cole will be back and better than ever.— wooderice
- This year, Cole wasn't able to do what every good starting pitcher needs to do, which is to "limit the damage." If a runner is in scoring position, there's a good chance he's getting to the plate. Hence the crooked numbers.— mjb
- This is the point, your perception is just not in line with reality. He has given up "taters" at the same exact rate as he gave them up last year. On a per 9ip basis he gave up 1.11 last year and 1.12 this year. Look at Pettite's hit last night, you can blame Hamels for hanging a curve, but the hit was still a soft liner to center. If someone could tell me why Victorino wasn't playing in closer against a pitcher I'd love to know. Is Andy going to get a hold of one and hit out to center? That hit is just as much, if not more, Victorino's fault. Simply put players are putting balls in play at the same rate as last year, with less line drives and more groundballs, and those balls aren't being turned in to outs as often as they should. It's bad luck on his part. Last year he actually had really good luck with balls in play. Every study has shown that pitchers have very little control on if there balls in play turn into outs. So i'm not going to blame Hamels for bad luck. Which is what it is. His true talent level is about a 3.5-3.6 era pitcher. It's no big mystery.— Either/Or
- "So let's cast aside petty stereotypes--isn't it so, like, 2004 to say that newspaper writers don't care about statistical analysis?--and look at the facts." All right Andy. Don't say it, do it. I have yet to see a meaningful statistical analysis published in this paper. I haven't seen any writer mention fielding independent pitcher measurements, positional value, why RBI is meaningless, UZR, +/-, or anything else remotely deep. They are exclusively mentioned in passing and cast aside.— Either/Or
- Either - I'm not sure if you are a robot or a computer - but bottom line -- throw the stats out - and when Cole starts getting rattled - when it rains it pours with him! If you don't notice his fragile mentality - then you need to stop looking at stats, thinking they tell the whole story - and therefore, your reality is what is not reality. If you can come up with the stats of the amount of 'big' innings he gave up last year compared to this year, the rate of decline in his game when things start going downhill (ie, his ability to bounce back within a game/within an inning) with all these other stats of yours -- then maybe the real story can be portrayed. And perhaps it is all just coincidental that bad luck always seems to occur in those big innings. All you are proving is how worthless stats are, or at least, how worthless it is to rely on stats alone - and how you just need to watch a guy. And to say it's bad luck is hopefully a joke. And honestly, I can't belive I'm having this argument.— AllDawk_AllTheTime
- This is an extremely well written, concise article, journalism at its best. You are describing the reality of growth and moving forward even in adversity. I suggest critcic rent the dvd Peaceful Warrior from Dan Millman s books. In fact he was just in Philly speaking recently. Mastery is about dealing in the moment and with what is there. This means emotions, mental state and physical stuff. This artice deals with all of it. Phils/ tai chi, zen or whatever they get it— billgfc
- "I haven't seen any writer mention fielding independent pitcher measurements, positional value, why RBI is meaningless, UZR, +/-, or anything else remotely deep."---That means you haven't been reading very often. Most of that stuff has been covered.— Andy Martino
- In my opinion, Neyer, a student of Bill James, is a prime example of a stat idiot. Stats can be interpreted so many ways, and they fail to take into consideration the human element and psychology of sports. Anyone who has played a team sport on a high level will verify that the mental aspect is a major factor in sport performance. It also fails to account for how a team's performance and managerial handling influences stats. Hamels may have a tired arm since he has pitched so many innings, thanks in part to Manuel's overworking pitchers, but at his age that can easily be cured by some extra rest.— djmarco
- Jot down all the stats you want. Post the stat that shows how Cole pitches after each on-field temper-tantrum. Nearly every batter after he loses a an out to a close pitch, or throws his arms up in disgust over his teammates on-the-field play, he falls apart. ALL SEASON LONG. Last night was just the most recent. A ball call on a strike that gave Teixeira first base, twp pitches later A-Rod sends one out. In the LA series, he fell apart after Utley threw a double-play away. This season he feels entitled to king status because of his performance last year. He thinks it should be easy. He's not bearing down and moving on when things don't go his way. Cole needs to man-up. Period. It's not the Cole-Show, it's the Philadelphia's Phillies.— Ben Lee
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