Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
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Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He had to say something. The expectations were not met, so Ruben Amaro Jr. had to issue a decree. The Phillies general manager hardly wasted time.
Asked first if the lineup is still capable of winning in its current state, he answered:
"Ability-wise, there is no question in my mind this is a championship-caliber lineup and championship-caliber players. We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in '08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change."
The reaction was such:
Oh my, he threw down the gauntlet on the coaching staff!
Wait, is he crazy? How can he expect veteran hitters to just change?
And those were two acceptable responses; exactly what Amaro may have wanted. Now you're distracted.
You know, the Phillies did win 102 games in 2011. They won the regular season, the largest sample size possible. And in the last two seasons, they have posted the best record in baseball despite the regular lineup playing 33 times in a possible 324 games.
The Phillies' goal every season should be to find a way into the postseason tournament. From there, no true formula exists to guarantee a championship. Great teams win championships. Good teams win championships. Teams with offense win championships. Teams with pitching win championships. Hot teams win championships. Cold teams win championships. Young teams win championships. Old teams win championships.
Consider this: Since realignment in 1995, when Major League Baseball moved to six divisions and added the Wild Card, 13 teams have qualified for the postseason at least five times each. The Phillies are tied for the third-highest World Series-winning percentage.
| TEAM | WS TITLES | POST. APP |
| Yankees | 5 | 16 |
| Red Sox | 2 | 9 |
| Phillies | 1 | 5 |
| Diamondbacks | 1 | 5 |
| Giants | 1 | 5 |
| Angels | 1 | 6 |
| Cardinals | 1 | 9* |
| Braves | 1 | 12 |
| Athletics | 0 | 6 |
| Astros | 0 | 6 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 6 |
| Twins | 0 | 6 |
| Indians | 0 | 7 |
Twenty percent of the time the Phillies made the tournament, they won a title. Only the Yankees and Red Sox have a better clip.
Adam Kilgore, now beat writer for the Nationals at The Washington Post, was reminded of a conversation he had two years ago with Theo Epstein while writing for The Boston Globe. Epstein is about to bolt home and success for the Chicago Cubs because the idea of being the man to finally win there is so appealing.
But Epstein built a perennial contender in Boston, where long-term success had eluded a franchise for decades. This was his theory on how to do it:
"That’s why we have clearly defined objectives," Epstein said in 2009. "In our mission statement, part of it is we want to operate with a long-term view to put ourselves in a position to win 95 games and get in the playoffs as often as we possibly. Now we’ve done it six out of seven years. Part of the thinking is that if you make the postseason multiple times, you improve your chances of making the World Series. Theoretically, if you’re in eight times, you’ll win one World Series. Well, we’ve been in five times. This is our sixth time in. The first five times in, we won two World Series. I’m not going to [complain] about that.
"I don’t believe in building a team with the season goal of winning the World Series, and the next year you look up, you’re old all of a sudden, you don’t have any options. 'Now we’re a 75-win team. Hey, we won the World Series two years ago.' It doesn’t work that way. We want to try to always operate with the broadest possible lens, so we have a solid foundation so that every year, or just about every year, we’ll be in a position to win 95 games and get in, and then trust our players, trust our manager, trust our coaching staff, trust our advanced scouting, trust our ability to perform under pressure to go win a World Series."
Of course, for every Yankees and Boston team, there are the Cardinals and Braves. The Phillies could go to the postseason for the next seven years while coming up empty and still be no worse than those Atlanta teams. That's the ultimate fear.
But is it? So long as the Phillies annually have a team that is good enough to qualify for the postseason, good things can happen. No one (yet) is doubting the Phillies chances at making the playoffs in 2012. They are just wondering whether this roster is good enough to win a championship.
For sure, the Phillies could have used better at-bats in the National League division series, as colleague Bob Brookover explains. Their aging roster is of concern and an infusion of youth is required. (Easier said than done.)
"Change is good," Amaro said. "I don’t think we need a whole lot of changes. We’re going to have to change because we have a lot of free agents. The changes may happen organically."
That's why Amaro issued the edict about a better approach. Publicly, something had to "change" after five October games ended the Phillies' season weeks before it was supposed to finish.
Still, in the end, the lineup could look quite similar to 2011. And is that a bad thing?
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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cant teach old dogs new tricks.
ruben need to be realistic about the lineup.
phillies need some new blood and good bats and speed at the top of the lineup.
something they are not getting with jroll and utley.— bloodymess- Having watched poor teams for 65 years these last five really seem like I'm in Heaven. BUT... fire Charlie and hire Ryne and let JRoll walk and we'll have at least 5 more.— philsfansince1946
- Giving more home games to the best team is not the answer. They lost two out of three at home. Are you going to feel better if they lose three out of five? The problem is exactly what Amaro says - a bunch of guys swinging for the fences and striking out way too much and Howard is the worst in baseball at that.— Bama
- Yes it is bad news. Will Howard,Utley come back. Rollins should go and Galvis started on his reign. Pence, Vic and perhaps Mayb. should be OK for the OF or perhaps a younger left fielder FA. Polly is hurt and might not come back; FA?? A second catcher is needed. No more .156 hitter. A bench that is younger and can hit some. Perhaps a FA arm. So the same line up is not the answer but it can be aided to once again win big.— Koons
- The Phils hitting declined the day they confiscated the BINOCULARS.
Phils hitters knew when the fastball was coming and then bashed it.
Now, all teams throw these hitters change-ups and breaking balls and they look totally clueless by expanding the strike zone and chasing balls out of the zone.
And Management is just now admitting two years later the hitters need to change their approach. Yet the cast of veteran players will remain the same.
What do they paln of doing - waving a magic wand and everything will be fine.
Dream on - while the Nats and Fish pass the Phils in the NL East.— johnpaulcpa 
Comment removed.- Yes the lineup staying the same is a bad thing! Three consecutive seasons this same basic lineup was given the opportunity to win a championship. And in consecutive seasons the team has gotten further and further from reaching that goal. How many chances should they get until you admit something needs to change?
Frankly, it is a cop-out to say that the "starting lineup" has only been together for 33 of 324 games. Each of those "starters" have gotten significant numbers of AB's and nobody has put together really great season. In fact, much of the lineup is getting worse. And what about players like John Mayberry? He isn't a "starter" but yet he put up good numbers...better numbers than the planned starter, probably.
I will be disappointed if the same basic lineup is on the field opening day. It will be nice to have Pence for an entire season, but I don't expect great things from any of the other regulars. Ruben needs to shake things up at least a little bit...get an infusion of new life, new attitude, new hunger. Aside from in-tact skills, what this team needs is some new life.— MrPhillie - Of course it's nice to be in the mix each and every year, but why do these last few years feel like squandered opportunities. And the team's results have gotten worse, each and every year since the World Series. There was an Albert Pujol's quote during the series that mentioned their last World Series win, and this is the only thing that gives me hope. The 2004, and 2005 Cards with 105 and 100 win regular seasons both experienced early playoff exits, then after an 83 win campaign in 2006 they win the WS. If the team can upgrade four positional players, a couple for power, two for average and speed, over the next two years and retool the relief this team should be fine. Go Phils.— JRum
- I agree with what Amaro said, but I'm skeptical about the in house players having the ability to change the lineups dynamics at this point, ...they are what they are.
Howard, Utley, Pence, and Ruiz are all locked in, Victorino is conceivably tradeable, but for what?
LF, SS, and 3B are the only realistic possibilities of changing that dynamic, ...there doesn't seem to be an impact player available in free agency at either LF or 3B that can do that, ...but there is a shortstop who could.
Rather than committing 12-15M to a four or five year deal to 33 year old declining flawed leadoff hitter, maybe the Phils should swallow hard, and explore the possibility of landing Reyes and strengthening the top of their lineup (and getting younger)— andyd - "Still, in the end, the lineup could look quite similar to 2011. And is that a bad thing?" Yes. They are the oldest team in the league now. Their players can't make 1/3 of the season and the trend is getting worse. 4 (arguably 6) players had their worst year ever. ...It is a bad thing.
— justacarpenter - Right on. FCOL - what an idiotic question. — mrnmkr
- A five-game playoff series following a 162 game season is preposterous. The playoffs are fun, but mostly luck. As they say in Europe, the table doesn't lie. The Phillies were the best team in baseball this year. They should be recognized as such.— Sgerat
- Comment removed.
- A read a comment on here the other day suggesting Aramis Ramirez at 3B, Furcal (or someone similar) at SS, Polanco at 2B, and Utley at 1B (while Howard recovers), Ruiz at C, with Mayberry, Victorino, and Pence in the outfield. When Howard comes back, Polanco goes to the bench. I really like that idea. I'm not sure how doable it is, but I like it.— Penfold18
- What are the chances that Halladay and Lee stay healthy for an entire season like they did this year? I feel like this season was their shot.
By the way, if there is any chance in he!! that an AL team would take Howard (with the Phillies chipping in money, hopefully no more than $10 million per season) then they absolutely MUST do it. I think the injury throws a serious wrench in that plan, but maybe it will surface again at the trading deadline or next offseason. I think a trade like that would be beneficial to both the Phillies and Howard.— Penfold18
