Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
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Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He had to say something. The expectations were not met, so Ruben Amaro Jr. had to issue a decree. The Phillies general manager hardly wasted time.
Asked first if the lineup is still capable of winning in its current state, he answered:
"Ability-wise, there is no question in my mind this is a championship-caliber lineup and championship-caliber players. We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in '08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change."
The reaction was such:
Oh my, he threw down the gauntlet on the coaching staff!
Wait, is he crazy? How can he expect veteran hitters to just change?
And those were two acceptable responses; exactly what Amaro may have wanted. Now you're distracted.
You know, the Phillies did win 102 games in 2011. They won the regular season, the largest sample size possible. And in the last two seasons, they have posted the best record in baseball despite the regular lineup playing 33 times in a possible 324 games.
The Phillies' goal every season should be to find a way into the postseason tournament. From there, no true formula exists to guarantee a championship. Great teams win championships. Good teams win championships. Teams with offense win championships. Teams with pitching win championships. Hot teams win championships. Cold teams win championships. Young teams win championships. Old teams win championships.
Consider this: Since realignment in 1995, when Major League Baseball moved to six divisions and added the Wild Card, 13 teams have qualified for the postseason at least five times each. The Phillies are tied for the third-highest World Series-winning percentage.
| TEAM | WS TITLES | POST. APP |
| Yankees | 5 | 16 |
| Red Sox | 2 | 9 |
| Phillies | 1 | 5 |
| Diamondbacks | 1 | 5 |
| Giants | 1 | 5 |
| Angels | 1 | 6 |
| Cardinals | 1 | 9* |
| Braves | 1 | 12 |
| Athletics | 0 | 6 |
| Astros | 0 | 6 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 6 |
| Twins | 0 | 6 |
| Indians | 0 | 7 |
Twenty percent of the time the Phillies made the tournament, they won a title. Only the Yankees and Red Sox have a better clip.
Adam Kilgore, now beat writer for the Nationals at The Washington Post, was reminded of a conversation he had two years ago with Theo Epstein while writing for The Boston Globe. Epstein is about to bolt home and success for the Chicago Cubs because the idea of being the man to finally win there is so appealing.
But Epstein built a perennial contender in Boston, where long-term success had eluded a franchise for decades. This was his theory on how to do it:
"That’s why we have clearly defined objectives," Epstein said in 2009. "In our mission statement, part of it is we want to operate with a long-term view to put ourselves in a position to win 95 games and get in the playoffs as often as we possibly. Now we’ve done it six out of seven years. Part of the thinking is that if you make the postseason multiple times, you improve your chances of making the World Series. Theoretically, if you’re in eight times, you’ll win one World Series. Well, we’ve been in five times. This is our sixth time in. The first five times in, we won two World Series. I’m not going to [complain] about that.
"I don’t believe in building a team with the season goal of winning the World Series, and the next year you look up, you’re old all of a sudden, you don’t have any options. 'Now we’re a 75-win team. Hey, we won the World Series two years ago.' It doesn’t work that way. We want to try to always operate with the broadest possible lens, so we have a solid foundation so that every year, or just about every year, we’ll be in a position to win 95 games and get in, and then trust our players, trust our manager, trust our coaching staff, trust our advanced scouting, trust our ability to perform under pressure to go win a World Series."
Of course, for every Yankees and Boston team, there are the Cardinals and Braves. The Phillies could go to the postseason for the next seven years while coming up empty and still be no worse than those Atlanta teams. That's the ultimate fear.
But is it? So long as the Phillies annually have a team that is good enough to qualify for the postseason, good things can happen. No one (yet) is doubting the Phillies chances at making the playoffs in 2012. They are just wondering whether this roster is good enough to win a championship.
For sure, the Phillies could have used better at-bats in the National League division series, as colleague Bob Brookover explains. Their aging roster is of concern and an infusion of youth is required. (Easier said than done.)
"Change is good," Amaro said. "I don’t think we need a whole lot of changes. We’re going to have to change because we have a lot of free agents. The changes may happen organically."
That's why Amaro issued the edict about a better approach. Publicly, something had to "change" after five October games ended the Phillies' season weeks before it was supposed to finish.
Still, in the end, the lineup could look quite similar to 2011. And is that a bad thing?
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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Ryan Howard will be getting $25 million/ yr for the next 5 years. He should be a dh in the American league and never bat against lefthanders! I don't think the Phillies want to keep offering stupid contracts. Rollins is good, when healthy, but not the player he was 4 years ago. Each year his numbers go down and his injuries go up.— farley- What Amaro said is exactly what could have been said at the beginning of this past season. It was clear to me the Phillies lacked power and wouldn't for average. I predicted a .245 team BA. These guys [prefer to K rather than make contact. Chase was named because he loves to swing a balls in the dirt. Etc. Howard is a strike-out machine. We had to win on pitching and giving up fewer than 3 runs.— 4thand10
- If the Phillies had better hitters the last 2 years we could have won 2 more World Series. Decent pitching stops lousy hitting. Cliff Lee probably wishes he stayed with Texas. At least they score runs.— zeke128
- I am on the record as being one of those wondering if the Phils make the playoffs next year. They most certainly will not win 100+ games. I hope they can win 90+ games. But I picked the Cardinals to beat the Phils so what could I possibly know.— scootch
- Can anyone answer why Victorino stopped stealing bases and why his defense declined? In a five-game series, he misplayed a fly ball in Game 2 that that was costly, and if he had not bounced a cutoff throw past Utley in the first inningof Game 5, Furcal would have been out and they might still be tied 0-0. (Oh, and there was also the slip and fall and throw that ended up behind him.) He probably never was really Gold Glove quality but now he may not even be average.— 2dsacker
- teams pull out all the stops to exploit the phillies batters when pitching to them in the playoffs. tactics they don't always use in the regular season. remember "hack a shaq"? that's why they can win 100 games but whiff in the playoffs.— chadp1234
- Regarding the playoff dilemma question...there is NO perfect solution...the answer is in not dismissing six months of terrific baseball as meaningless as a lot of people do...after taking a quick glance at Matt's chart above, it appears there are probably some errors involved in his accounting (such as only 13 WS titles shown from 1995-2010), however, it still shows plainly how difficult it really is to win it all...only eight teams have done it (only two did it more than once)...imagine how it feels to be a fan of the other 22 teams...we should all make it a point to appreciate what we have and enjoy every one of the 162 games during the regular season...— stan the man too
- now that you're done glancing at the chart, try reading the text.
where it says: "13 teams have qualified for the postseason at least five times each."
so, one might guess that the "missing" titles were won by teams that made the playoffs less than 5 times in that span.
Reading - It's Fundamental.
— ekw555 - Thanks tri5...now I remember why Sister Mary Humilita had that big yardstick in 2nd grade...but does this mean you don't like the idea about appreciating the regular season??? — stan the man too
- It would be great for the Phils to add a real lead off hitter and another power bat to the line up to replace Werth/Ibanez.— krisC
- "Tells you something when LaRussa walks Pence to get to Howard and when Carpenter laughs when Howard lined out on a 3-0 pitch".
"There is a lot of walks,singles and doubles waiting to be had for Ryan Howard if he alters his approach",and if you dont trust me,go and ask to Mike Schmidt who had a wild swing at the start of his magnificent carrier.— leonel102345 - They can get younger and cheaper real quick next year if two free agents walk. If Galvis who is 11 years younger replaces Rollins and Mayberry who is 12 years younger replaces, Ruben nets 23 years on the calendar and saves at least $20 million in the budget.— Dull
- We should trade ALL our position players with Texas.— 4thand10
- A better approach at the plate? Are you kidding me? this has been a known problem for quite a while now but nothing seems to have been done about it.
manuel should have been sitting guys who continually have bad at bats .Even pence made a lot of outs swinging at bad pitches. Utley always takes a strike before he swings putting himself in a hole right off the bat. You think pitchers havent caught on.Howard simply cannot hit lefthanders . There were times even he should have been pinch hit for .
But this all leads back to Manuel and his stubborness to make changes when necessary. Take a clue from La Russa who managed each game like it was the fifth game ,making changes as the situatio dictated.
The fact is that the phils no longer have the hitters they had three years ago,especially not the power hitters .— gardner - What about the crazy idea of the division winning team actually being better then the wildcard team, then I would bet that it would win a greater majority of the time. Face it Philly fans ( of which I am one also) the Cards had a better 1 through 8 and decent starting pitching, with a real ace in Carpenter, who has been hurt all year. I knew before the series started that the Phils would have a hard time beating the Cards because 1)Cards had great 3-4-5 hitters in Pujols-Holliday-Berkman, 2) the remaining Cards line-up outside of Furcal and the pitcher were all hitting .300, and 3) the Cards had a good pitching staff, and Garcia and Carpenter had always given Phils fits.
That being said, if Lee can hold a 4 run lead, or if the Phils kept hitting Jackson in game 4, or if the wind is blowing out an extra 1 mile/hour when Ibanez hits that drive to the warning track in game 5 (who didn't think that the ball was out, it was a typical Ibanez swing that he has demonstrated manymtimes during the year, in all cases they left the park). I agree with upgrades being needed for 2B average, and 3B power. Final note, once Howard gets back hopefully in June, how about Amaro dealing Howard to an American league team that is looking for a power hitting DH (who skrites out 200 times).— jeff007
