Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
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Is the plea for better at-bats a cover-up?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He had to say something. The expectations were not met, so Ruben Amaro Jr. had to issue a decree. The Phillies general manager hardly wasted time.
Asked first if the lineup is still capable of winning in its current state, he answered:
"Ability-wise, there is no question in my mind this is a championship-caliber lineup and championship-caliber players. We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in '08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change."
The reaction was such:
Oh my, he threw down the gauntlet on the coaching staff!
Wait, is he crazy? How can he expect veteran hitters to just change?
And those were two acceptable responses; exactly what Amaro may have wanted. Now you're distracted.
You know, the Phillies did win 102 games in 2011. They won the regular season, the largest sample size possible. And in the last two seasons, they have posted the best record in baseball despite the regular lineup playing 33 times in a possible 324 games.
The Phillies' goal every season should be to find a way into the postseason tournament. From there, no true formula exists to guarantee a championship. Great teams win championships. Good teams win championships. Teams with offense win championships. Teams with pitching win championships. Hot teams win championships. Cold teams win championships. Young teams win championships. Old teams win championships.
Consider this: Since realignment in 1995, when Major League Baseball moved to six divisions and added the Wild Card, 13 teams have qualified for the postseason at least five times each. The Phillies are tied for the third-highest World Series-winning percentage.
| TEAM | WS TITLES | POST. APP |
| Yankees | 5 | 16 |
| Red Sox | 2 | 9 |
| Phillies | 1 | 5 |
| Diamondbacks | 1 | 5 |
| Giants | 1 | 5 |
| Angels | 1 | 6 |
| Cardinals | 1 | 9* |
| Braves | 1 | 12 |
| Athletics | 0 | 6 |
| Astros | 0 | 6 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 6 |
| Twins | 0 | 6 |
| Indians | 0 | 7 |
Twenty percent of the time the Phillies made the tournament, they won a title. Only the Yankees and Red Sox have a better clip.
Adam Kilgore, now beat writer for the Nationals at The Washington Post, was reminded of a conversation he had two years ago with Theo Epstein while writing for The Boston Globe. Epstein is about to bolt home and success for the Chicago Cubs because the idea of being the man to finally win there is so appealing.
But Epstein built a perennial contender in Boston, where long-term success had eluded a franchise for decades. This was his theory on how to do it:
"That’s why we have clearly defined objectives," Epstein said in 2009. "In our mission statement, part of it is we want to operate with a long-term view to put ourselves in a position to win 95 games and get in the playoffs as often as we possibly. Now we’ve done it six out of seven years. Part of the thinking is that if you make the postseason multiple times, you improve your chances of making the World Series. Theoretically, if you’re in eight times, you’ll win one World Series. Well, we’ve been in five times. This is our sixth time in. The first five times in, we won two World Series. I’m not going to [complain] about that.
"I don’t believe in building a team with the season goal of winning the World Series, and the next year you look up, you’re old all of a sudden, you don’t have any options. 'Now we’re a 75-win team. Hey, we won the World Series two years ago.' It doesn’t work that way. We want to try to always operate with the broadest possible lens, so we have a solid foundation so that every year, or just about every year, we’ll be in a position to win 95 games and get in, and then trust our players, trust our manager, trust our coaching staff, trust our advanced scouting, trust our ability to perform under pressure to go win a World Series."
Of course, for every Yankees and Boston team, there are the Cardinals and Braves. The Phillies could go to the postseason for the next seven years while coming up empty and still be no worse than those Atlanta teams. That's the ultimate fear.
But is it? So long as the Phillies annually have a team that is good enough to qualify for the postseason, good things can happen. No one (yet) is doubting the Phillies chances at making the playoffs in 2012. They are just wondering whether this roster is good enough to win a championship.
For sure, the Phillies could have used better at-bats in the National League division series, as colleague Bob Brookover explains. Their aging roster is of concern and an infusion of youth is required. (Easier said than done.)
"Change is good," Amaro said. "I don’t think we need a whole lot of changes. We’re going to have to change because we have a lot of free agents. The changes may happen organically."
That's why Amaro issued the edict about a better approach. Publicly, something had to "change" after five October games ended the Phillies' season weeks before it was supposed to finish.
Still, in the end, the lineup could look quite similar to 2011. And is that a bad thing?
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Still, there is something wrong with a system that allows "good teams" to win championships. What's the point of playing 162 games if the best team isn't rewarded with a trip to the World Series? Multiple rounds of playoffs and 5-game series are great for TV and revenue, but they dilute the value of the games played before. When you potentially play 10% of your games in the post-season, is that a good system for finding the best team?
In my opinion, either the 5-game series has to change or the home field advantage has to be more than a measly 3 games. What reward is there for having the best record if all you get is one extra home game in the first round?— apreziosi- this system has been in place for baseball for at least 100 years... now it's no longer any good? — recoveryroad
- Actually, the system hasn't been in place for at least 100 years. In 1969, MLB switch to a playoff to win the pennant. Before that date, the regular season winner of the National League and the American League were awarded the pennant and faced off in the World Series. Back then it was also a five game series. It wasn't until 1985 that it was expanded to a seven game series. In 1994, it was then switched to a best of five DS, a best of seven CS, and a best of seven World Series. I am only 33 years old, but I at least know that it hasn't been the current format for very long. Why not change it if it doesn't seem to work? — atsipras
- Until 1969, the best team in the National League faced the best team in the American League in the World Series. The playoffs began as Divisional (2 divisions) Playoffs with a best of 5 series in 1969. — Smokey
- I love Jimmy, and he is the 2nd best shortstop on the market. But we can't give him 5 or even 4 years. I want freedom. I don't want to regret the last two years. So I propose two options. 1. Offer 3 years with more $$$$. Maybe 3yr @ $55-60 million. I know that sounds crazy because it's probably what he will get in a 4-5 year deal elsewhere. What hurts worse... Over paying for the next 3 years when we KNOW our team is going to compete for a pennant or tying up years 4-5 to dead dead money? Over paying him for 3 years now won't hurt us in 2015-2016. Option 2. Let him walk. Go after a stop gap shortstop in the likes of Scutaro, Furcal, or Gonzales and utilize that money at 3B or LF. I didn't mention Madson because he will command to much $$$ with Boris as his agent. By going stop gap at SS, so give yourself another year or two to make sure Galvis is your man and maybe another shortstop hits the market.— BammBamm
- agreed, the team with the best record should get the first 5 game serious all at home. it will also create motivation to win the division, finish hot, and go into the first 5 game series with fierce determination.— MichaelZoe
- How about unabashed optimism: 1. Utley changes his offseason preparation with his knee in mind, comes into 2012 with some of his power stroke back. 2. Pence and Polanco don't get hernias again next year; Polanco is rested a bit and stays healthier; 3. Madson is re-signed; 4. The Three Aces are back and even hungrier, while Worley proves to be a decent No. 4 starter; 5. The Phils take their time with Howard; he returns by June 1 and we've learned Mayberry can place a decent 3B; 6. Amaro adds one, just one, quality bat to the lineup, probably someone who can play LF, 1B, 3B or some combination.— eman
- I like Mayberry, but I don't think he can play the hot corner. — atsipras
- I think a multitude of things from this series prompted that statement by Amaro. we didn't run, we didn't but, we didn;t hit and run. Specifically, we got a little lucky when francisco hit that homer in game 3. Earlier in that inning, with runs so hard to come by, Mayberry should have been sac bunting, or he should have been replaced by someone who could.— shamdog
Comment removed.
Give Jimmy 5 years but with three- or four-year money spread over those five years.— jp8899- Nobody would be complaining about the set up if the Phillies swept the cardinals. What they need is better professional hitter. Utley isnt that anymore. Polanco was hurt. Pence can be that. They need multiple players who work good counts ALL THE TIME and push a .300 avg ALL THE TIME. Maybe Victorino, the new LF, and Pence can do that. Maybe Rollins can change his game as he gets older if he re-signs. Theres really not much room for change in this locker room, barring a trade of a key piece like Utley or Victorino which I dont see happening. And it would be nice if this 'best rotaion ever' could hold a lead....Game 5 was the only game they didnt lead if no one picked up on that— dennis14
- Conversely, the wild card can give as many as maybe as high as 5 teams late season hope for a pretty good shot at going all the way, and from that potential, offers MLB, as opposed to 1 team a healthy appeal. There are tradeoffs in any system. It's just hard to accept that such a terrific regular season just didn't work out. I know there's a long historical pattern of best teams failing, but somewhere in that pattern is an exposure of flaw, combined with bad luck that is troubling, but has to be accepted as part of the game. Besides that, with the high in season roster turnover (how many clubs finish with the same 25 man roster that runs on Opening Day), just because you win a lot of games doesn't mean you were the best team over say the last 2 months, or whatever length of time really starts the warm up for the playoffs. The Cards, off the pitching acquired in the Rasmus deal, and getting a nice afterlife out of mid year pick up Furcal might actually be the best team in the league. They did, after all, win 2 of 3 at the Bank in the playoffs, so extra home games in the first round isn't an exact answer either. It's a puzzle with no clear, right answer.— KBland
- Well, considering Boston had one of the greatest collapses this season while their players were drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing video games during games, I wouldn't put too much stock in Theo Epstein's comments....— RockStar
- I think what concerned Amaro is that this same discussion was had last year when they lost to the Giants, the Phillies with very few HR's in the series. I remember all the "small ball" enthusiasts last year, including myself. You get great pitching on the hill for both teams, you gotta play playoff baseball. There's a lot of walks, singles and doubles waiting to be had for Ryan Howard if he alters his approach against great pitchers. Tells you something when LaRussa walks Pence to get to Howard and when Carpenter laughs when Howard lined out on a 3-0 pitch.— retzlaff
