Is it Pence day?
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Is it Pence day?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The Astros flew from St. Louis to Milwaukee late Thursday night and Hunter Pence was still a member of their traveling party.
That could change Friday.
There are strong indications a Pence trade will happen Friday, with Houston enamored by the increased bidding war for their 28-year-old outfielder. People in Houston believe Pence played his final game as an Astro on Thursday.
A baseball source told The Inquirer that Pence is Ruben Amaro Jr.'s No. 1 target. The Braves are heavily involved. Houston can pit the division rivals against one another in bidding. They are selling at the peak of Pence's value.
In past deadlines and winters, Amaro has snagged his man. It could take a huge bounty of prospects to emerge with Pence -- and it will probably mean overpaying. But if it's prospects Amaro deals in, his goal of winning a World Series in 2011 is not negatively affected.
Any package, it appears, begins with the organization's top two prospects: First baseman/outfielder Jonathan Singleton and righthander Jarred Cosart. The Phillies were interested in Carlos Beltran, but once the asking price rose to a top pitching prospect, talks were not serious. That's because, the source said, Phillies president David Montgomery would not allow a top prospect to be dealt for a rental player.
What is still unknown is whether Domonic Brown is involved in these talks. The Phillies are reluctant to move him, but will if the price is right. Houston is said to be prioritizing younger talent like Singleton (19) and Cosart (21). Another one of the Clearwater "Baby Aces" could be included.
Pence is making $6.9 million this season and has two years of (costly) arbitration remaining. If the Phillies do include four solid prospects in a package, it's possible salary relief could come from the Astros, much like it did last season in the Roy Oswalt trade. Houston could pay the approximate $2.2 million remaining on Pence's deal so the Phillies do not exceed Major League Baseball's luxury tax threshold.
Pence is hitting .300 for the first time since his rookie season, but that is largely due to a staggering .370 batting average on balls in play. The league-average BABIP is around .300, which means Pence has been the beneficiary of substantial luck this season.
But he provides an immediate upgrade in the outfield, and if Brown is not included, the Phillies have their 2012 outfield configuration already solved.
Check the Phillies Zone and philly.com all day for updates.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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This trade could be fatal for the future if the Phillies overpay, be careful what you wish for Philly, be very careful...Can you imagine the pressure on Pence if we give up everything for him and he struggles??? My my my my— SouthJerseyMike- Get Adams, Lugwig and maybe Giambi and make the star players we have play like their supposed to and we will be good— SouthJerseyMike
- Yo SouthJerseyMike, you can get as much production from Mayberry as you would Ludwick. But hey today is the Phils deadline to get Hunter Pence.— Ace-Philadelphia
- Good point. If Utley, Rollins, Vic, Ibanez and the most overpaid, overrated first baseman in the game don't hit in the postseason it won't matter who gets added at the trade deadline.— blaqjaq
- In the NL there are 3 World Series contenders. You cannot allow the other two teams to build better October rosters. Whether you need the player or not you do not allow the other team to get Hunter Pence. You already let Beltran go to the Giants. Ludwick is too much a mirror of the current hitters: bad average with tons of K's. Pence is a Victorino style blue collar guy that makes the Phillies better through hustle, attitude, team attitude. Get Pence now.— GAphil
- Can one of you sabermetrics nuts explain to me why a high BABIP is a red flag? Couldn't a high BABIP indicate that he makes more solid contact and doesn't hit the ball weakly - since the balls in play aren't turned into outs as often for him?— phils_tnj1
- Obviously the Phillies need to improve their hitting or they will definitely lose in the playoffs and the season will be a failure.
So they must get Pence, who has hit 25 home runs for 3 consecutive years, and is hitting over .300 BA., which would make Pence the best hitter on th Phillies.
— frank105 - Pence would immediately be our leading HR hitter...maybe Howard should hit behind him— philly thug
- Excuse me??? I'm all for getting Pence but lets set the record straight here:
Pence = 11 HR's
Howard = 20 HR's
Ibanez = 14 HR's
Rollins = 11 HR's
The big thing about Pence I like is he has 26 doubles (4 less than Beltran), which means he drives the ball, i.e. can drive in the runners on base...— Oak31 - Again, Pence has zero support in the Houston lineup and opposing pitchers can be careful with him. In the #5 hole between Howard and Ibanez, Pence would most likely see some pretty good pitches and all of his numbers would go up as a result.
- How much of an upgrade is he.
Batting average .309 (Ranks 18th in the majors)
On-base percentage .356 (50th in the majors)
Slugging percentage .472 (54th in the majors)
— sunking11 - I hope Pence is traded - to anyone but the Phillies.— billtfla
- 53 hours to go and the pressure is mounting— shawnmac
- The way things are shaping up confirms what I posted here last week. Pence has always been the Phils prime target. Before the deal is set in stone, there are a few things to consider. First of all, The Phils will trade Brown, plus top prospects, for Pence. The exact prospects and number of prospects are what still appear to be on the table. Second, the Astros have tried unsuccessfully to trade Michael Bourn. Therefore, the Phils should give the Astros what they want for Pence, and if the price is too steep, have the Astros throw in Bourn. Ibanez and Mayberry will still have important roles on this year's team, but both are still streaky hitters and Ibanez becomes a free agent after this season. So, if the Phils trade Brown, they will still be looking to complete their outfield next season, but if the Astros include Bourn in the trade, the Phils will have their outfield set for the next few seasons. An outfield of Victorino, Pence and Bourn would be the best offensive and defensive outfield in baseball.
- just move Howard up 3rd in the batting oder Chase to clean up and get nice right hand bat and keep our future here in place by the Howard sucks— jackeric
