Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
In all likelihood, the Phillies will trade Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Juan Pierre. They are free agents this winter and have been scouted extensively by contending teams.
But Ruben Amaro Jr. is hardly predictable this time of year, as evidenced by an exchange with reporters Friday. The general manager was asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — intact.
"Plans can change," Amaro said, "but that's what the plan is right now."
It was a sly answer from a man chock full of them. But that is Amaro's job this time of year; to broadcast misinformation and hide his true intentions as best he can.
Do the Phillies want to trade Lee? That remains to be seen. They are at least listening on offers, according to an ESPN.com report Monday. It would be stunning if the Phillies dealt Lee before 4 p.m. Tuesday.
A potential deal makes sense. The Phillies are lacking payroll flexibility and want to acquire younger, major-league-ready prosepcts. Lee, despite an off season and large contract, is a valuable trade chip.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of something actually happening. Here they are, in no particular order:
1. Lee can be traded to only eight teams. Lee, like other Phillies stars, has a no-trade clause inserted in his contract. That clause, according to a source, allows the player to submit a list annually of 21 teams he cannot be traded to without consent.
The identity of the eight teams in play is unknown, but reports say the Texas Rangers are one option. A deal between Texas and Philadelphia is conceivable; the two discussed a potential Cole Hamels trade earlier this month. The Phillies covet third baseman Mike Olt and outfielder Leonys Martin.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are engaged in an arms race with Los Angeles. The Angels just acquired Zack Greinke and trail Texas by five games in the American League West. Texas is familiar with Lee; he pitched in a World Series for them. They have the prospects. They have money.
But what if the Rangers decide the price is too steep for Lee? Well, that leaves seven other unknown options. Any Lee trade would be quite complicated and it's difficult to see something materializing with a new suitor in 24 hours.
That, of course, does not preclude a trade this winter.
2. How many promises can be broken? Lee's wife, Kristen, famously told Amaro that he broke her heart the first time Lee was traded. It was rectified when Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal. The family bought a condo in Rittenhouse and quite enjoys living in Philadelphia.
Indications are Lee was told he would not be dealt this summer. When Hamels signed his megadeal, he said one of the reasons for staying was to pitch with Lee and Halladay. Halladay said he spoke with Amaro, who told him he foresees keeping the rotation together.
Other players take note of such things. If Lee is twice traded by Amaro, especially after recent assurances he would not be, it will reflect negatively.
Then again, it is a business.
3. There is no good read on Halladay's health. Let's say the Phillies deal Lee only to discover in a few weeks Halladay's lat strain is actually a more serious issue. Halladay insists it is not. Charlie Manuel, though, left the door open to shutting down Halladay later this season. He will be 36 next May. Only 13 pitchers who started their careers in the last 30 years have thrown more innings than Halladay by age 35. If he finishes the season, it will be 10 pitchers.
Halladay will be a free agent after 2013 because he will not reach the conditions for a vesting fourth-year option. Even if Halladay is healthy and Lee is traded, that would leave Hamels and four question marks for 2014.
4. Lee is still owed a ton of money. Rival GMs will have to ask themselves this question: Would they sign a 34-year-old pitcher to a three-year, $87.5 million deal this winter? Lee is due about $7 million for the rest of 2012, $25 million per season from 2013-15, and has a $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option for 2016.
The Phillies would almost certainly have to eat money in any deal. If he's traded in the next 24 hours, he is owed at least $95 million. The more money the Phillies eat, the better the prospect haul. And the more money the Phillies eat, the less financial flexibility is achieved.
How willing are the Phillies to pay a significant amount to a pitcher who will not be throwing for them? The objective of the trade will have to be clear: Either the Phillies do it to become younger, or they do it for salary relief.
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This could all be a ploy to test the market now as due diligence for this winter. The Phillies must clear payroll somehow and nowhere is it written that it must be done immediately.
Lee is scheduled to start Tuesday against Stephen Strasburg in Washington. For now, his name is reduced to a trade rumor, but it's much more complicated than that.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
If Pence goes to SF, and prospects go to SD, and Headley comes here...Lee stays. If we don't get Headley, Lee is a Ranger and Olt is the new third basemen. Sorry Kristen but that is how baseball works.— Hammer859- The Rangers have publicly stated that Olt is untouchable. To respond to other posts; Headly is average, maybe, not great and will not guarantee anything, he's a lifetime .267 hitter and hit a whopping 12 home runs in 560+ ab's, 11 the year before that in 600+ ab's, above average defense, how is that filling the power void at third? As for the luxury tax, the front office has already stated, several times, that they will probably pay it and it's not a 'major' concern. — TexasYankee
- I would rather have Headly than Polanco as it stands. a healthy Polanco is way better than Headly anyday, who hits 1 home run in every 47 ab's...just sayin — TexasYankee
- Check out Headley's home and away splits over his career (he does play in one of best pitchers parks out there):
Home: .235 18 HR in 315 games
Away: .299 30 HR in 316 games— slovak34 - I guess we'll know if Lee is truly on the market if he is scratched from his scheduled start on Tuesday?— apreziosi
- It would be great if Howard were tradeable. He's the real albatross around the Phillies neck. At least Utley will be off payroll after next season. And if they trade Lee or Blanton, doesn't that mean they have to keep the other?— Xyzzyx
- I keep hearing about the Phillies needing to clear money, but there is no hard cap in baseball. The idea that the team would give away Lee to clear space is silly. First, as noted Halladay will be off the books in 2014. Some other over priced players will be gone in either 2012/2013 as well - Blanton, Polanco, and Victorino after this year, and Pence, Doc and Utley after next year. So you are looking at a luxury tax hit for 1 year, versus an opportunity to win something over the next 3 or 4 years. Would I trade Lee for a haul of prospects including Olt? You bet. But I wouldn't move him just to clear payroll.— dankil13
- You hit the key point: Any Lee trade is not really about money. It's about getting needed pieces in return. However, I think for either guy to help win another WS it has to be soon ... they're not getting any younger. This is where a 3-way trade to get Headley makes sense -- it fits with the idea that the Phillies believe they can retool and make a run in 2013 versus a bigger rebuild for 2014 or beyond. — s
- As I posted above, all the hype about getting Headly is misplaced. While I admit he is an upgrade as it stands, he is not the power hitting 3rd base for some reason you have all made him out to be. Have any of you looked up Headly's lifetime numbers? Be careful what you wish for. They will not move Lee for salary, doubt they could anyway. As dank says, there will be several salries off the books next year and the Phillies have said many times the luxury tax is not high on their list of concerns. Rangers will not trade Olt, trust me. — TexasYankee
- Pence for prospects, prospects for Headley (Hammer859's scenario) is sounding plausible and it fits an Amaro style move. It also says "We're still contending in 2013" which I think the Phillies front office really believes. Lee could very well be a fallback in that case and maybe not one that happens until the offseason and only if they can't move Pence. If they trade Lee I'm assuming they definitely have to eat some salary to make it work. I could see the Phillies making Victorino an offer if they trade Pence.— s
- And exactly what about Headley gets you excited that he fits into the contending in 2013 mantra? His .260 average? His 12 homeruns? His 60 RBIs? I'm curious.
That is about what he averages. That is what you want to represent us at 3B? Or is this just the media drumming up interest because they heard it on espn?
Chase Headley? Really? This is really the only player we can get for Cliff Lee?
Geez, when does the next puck drop?— kozykoz26 - I didn't say it excited me. It doesn't. I'd like a legitimate stud 3B prospect like Olt. What I said is I could see how that sort of move fits with the way they Phillies may be thinking. I think they're convinced they'll be right back in with a few moves. And, if they go the Headley route it would be to avoid trading Lee -- Pence and maybe some prospects to ultimately (3-way trade) get Headley. Headley would be an upgrade at 3B and if they actually did contend next year with a move like that and a few smaller moves, no one would be complaining ... until maybe 2014 or 2015. — s
- Headley and Choo are decent OBP guys. Acquiring one or both of them would signal a move toward the much talked about but not acted on change in hitting approach. Headley's career OBP is the same as Polanco's, he's got some power, is a switch hitter, and is affordable. He'd be an enormous upgrade for this team. — jtj06
- S- Pence and prospects for Chase Headley? You can't be serious. Pence will hit double the amount of homeruns and knock in 30 more runs. Chase Headley is the number 3 hitter on arguably the worst hitting team in MLB.
jtj- I agree, Polanco is breaking down, but you would trade Hunter Pence for a guy who has Polanco capabilities?
You guys are crazy. Pence is having a down year and he will hit 20-25 homeruns and will knock in 85-100 runs for this team. If there was anyone on the Padres, I would want Quentin. Chase Headley for Pence is just panicking and selling him at his lowest point.— kozykoz26 - It's about Pence's value and cost, not about his ability. Do the Phillies really need a 14-15m dollar RF while having no obvious answer for 3B? That's really what it boils down to.
I think the Phillies front office mentality is that this was a down year and they'll be in it again next year. 3B is their biggest, hardest to fill hole heading into 2013. The 3B FA market is both weak and old. This is why I could see them using guys they'd rather not trade to fill the 3B hole. Otherwise, who's at 3B next year? Polanco?
Very unlikely a Pence/Headley trade would be straight-up. More likely a 3-way deal in my opinion. I'm not saying it will happen but it makes sense when you consider their 3B situation. Pence and Lee are probably the only two chips that could land a decent third baseman, directly or indirectly.— s
