Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
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Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
In all likelihood, the Phillies will trade Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Juan Pierre. They are free agents this winter and have been scouted extensively by contending teams.
But Ruben Amaro Jr. is hardly predictable this time of year, as evidenced by an exchange with reporters Friday. The general manager was asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — intact.
"Plans can change," Amaro said, "but that's what the plan is right now."
It was a sly answer from a man chock full of them. But that is Amaro's job this time of year; to broadcast misinformation and hide his true intentions as best he can.
Do the Phillies want to trade Lee? That remains to be seen. They are at least listening on offers, according to an ESPN.com report Monday. It would be stunning if the Phillies dealt Lee before 4 p.m. Tuesday.
A potential deal makes sense. The Phillies are lacking payroll flexibility and want to acquire younger, major-league-ready prosepcts. Lee, despite an off season and large contract, is a valuable trade chip.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of something actually happening. Here they are, in no particular order:
1. Lee can be traded to only eight teams. Lee, like other Phillies stars, has a no-trade clause inserted in his contract. That clause, according to a source, allows the player to submit a list annually of 21 teams he cannot be traded to without consent.
The identity of the eight teams in play is unknown, but reports say the Texas Rangers are one option. A deal between Texas and Philadelphia is conceivable; the two discussed a potential Cole Hamels trade earlier this month. The Phillies covet third baseman Mike Olt and outfielder Leonys Martin.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are engaged in an arms race with Los Angeles. The Angels just acquired Zack Greinke and trail Texas by five games in the American League West. Texas is familiar with Lee; he pitched in a World Series for them. They have the prospects. They have money.
But what if the Rangers decide the price is too steep for Lee? Well, that leaves seven other unknown options. Any Lee trade would be quite complicated and it's difficult to see something materializing with a new suitor in 24 hours.
That, of course, does not preclude a trade this winter.
2. How many promises can be broken? Lee's wife, Kristen, famously told Amaro that he broke her heart the first time Lee was traded. It was rectified when Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal. The family bought a condo in Rittenhouse and quite enjoys living in Philadelphia.
Indications are Lee was told he would not be dealt this summer. When Hamels signed his megadeal, he said one of the reasons for staying was to pitch with Lee and Halladay. Halladay said he spoke with Amaro, who told him he foresees keeping the rotation together.
Other players take note of such things. If Lee is twice traded by Amaro, especially after recent assurances he would not be, it will reflect negatively.
Then again, it is a business.
3. There is no good read on Halladay's health. Let's say the Phillies deal Lee only to discover in a few weeks Halladay's lat strain is actually a more serious issue. Halladay insists it is not. Charlie Manuel, though, left the door open to shutting down Halladay later this season. He will be 36 next May. Only 13 pitchers who started their careers in the last 30 years have thrown more innings than Halladay by age 35. If he finishes the season, it will be 10 pitchers.
Halladay will be a free agent after 2013 because he will not reach the conditions for a vesting fourth-year option. Even if Halladay is healthy and Lee is traded, that would leave Hamels and four question marks for 2014.
4. Lee is still owed a ton of money. Rival GMs will have to ask themselves this question: Would they sign a 34-year-old pitcher to a three-year, $87.5 million deal this winter? Lee is due about $7 million for the rest of 2012, $25 million per season from 2013-15, and has a $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option for 2016.
The Phillies would almost certainly have to eat money in any deal. If he's traded in the next 24 hours, he is owed at least $95 million. The more money the Phillies eat, the better the prospect haul. And the more money the Phillies eat, the less financial flexibility is achieved.
How willing are the Phillies to pay a significant amount to a pitcher who will not be throwing for them? The objective of the trade will have to be clear: Either the Phillies do it to become younger, or they do it for salary relief.
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This could all be a ploy to test the market now as due diligence for this winter. The Phillies must clear payroll somehow and nowhere is it written that it must be done immediately.
Lee is scheduled to start Tuesday against Stephen Strasburg in Washington. For now, his name is reduced to a trade rumor, but it's much more complicated than that.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
lazyboy, you're nuts. I'm not arguing the "validity" of the RBI stat, but if you think "most cleanup hitters drive in 100 runs," I don't think you've actually been watching major league baseball.— cloudkitt- Fair enough, my usual comparison is Rico Brogna drove in over 100 and he was no superstar., but runs are down and with the migration to the AL of bigger NL run producers Cabrera, Fielder, Pujols, Gonzalez it is getting less frequent. However 85 or so is still very common for guys making 10 million or less and point being he's not worth close to what he's getting paid. — lazyboy
- since when did chase headly a solid option to start at 3rd and bring offense???? He's a solid bench player on a WS contender. Decent starter on an awful team— Omorales510
- Third base? How about a guy with a good arm, good hands, .720 ops who we are more or less stuck with anyway? Move Jimmy Rollins to 3rd, see what Galvis can do at SS when his suspension is over. I don't want this team to add anyone over 25 years old.— altoonaaslan
- I've been a Howard fan, but we have to get real. The guy was limping the last few months of last year, before his injury. Then he was off for what- eight months, and he's still limping and not covering any ground at First Base. He's hitting ok since his return, except for the Atlanta series. Right now, he is a DH if there ever was one. If Thome and Ibanez can be DH's, Howard sure can. Try to move him. It won't be easy, but it's worth a try.— altoonaaslan
- The season has been over forever..
Build for '13?
Not with this GM. Amaro's history of bringing in prospects for established MLB players is poor if at that.
Keep Victorino, Blanton, Lee & Pierre....
I would much rather have our team together than have a handful of worthless prospects.
— Seal Rock - If dumb Amaro trades Lee again after trading him for nothing and listening to fan outrage for a year, he's out of his mind. I know my season tickets won't be renewed if Lee is traded.— Larry Brown
- hamels and 4 question marks? keep worley in the rotation. and obviously with trading lee, you try to get a pitching prospect who will be ready by 2014— HDemetriou
- if he trades Lee, Amara might as well wear a sign around his neck that says he had no clue what he's doing. Pence and Lee are two of about 6 players that are worth keeping. Trade Pappelbon, they're paying 60 million for a guy they never need!— outoftowner7519
- Rube: 'You Blew It..'— Apollo Creed
- Blanton is going to Baltimore. The Phillies already sent his medical report to the Orioles.— EL Zorro
This amateur general manager stuff is tricky. If we look at the pitching, some of the starters are left in too long because the middle relief is questionable. This points at the general manager, manager and pitching coach. Many position players can't hit competitively. This points to the general manager and manager plus the batting/hitting/coach/instructor of that year. The fielding stinks at times and that one is on the manager or whoever on the mananagement side deals with that stuff. Charlie has changed the hitting coach already and there's been no improvement. Maybe the manager's time has passed. You can excuse his oddities when the Phils win, but they are not. Anybody have any arguments for keeping him and all his buddies?— r a leon- The Dodgers are also in the hunt for Pence and Victorino. Texas still can deal for Lee. The Phillies need to eat some salary, however. The Greinke deal will push them to get a top starter. Lee is the best available.— EL Zorro
- Aramis Ramirez and Melky Cabrera..thats all we had to do last year ..what a stupid waste of a season this was Halladay is done Lee is done 24 million for a single win..who gives a rip about Mrs.Lee's opinion her husband is killing this team— gilberg
- What can stop a Cliff Lee trade? What an idiot who came up with that title. Don't be an idiot.— Phanatik23
