Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
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Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
In all likelihood, the Phillies will trade Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Juan Pierre. They are free agents this winter and have been scouted extensively by contending teams.
But Ruben Amaro Jr. is hardly predictable this time of year, as evidenced by an exchange with reporters Friday. The general manager was asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — intact.
"Plans can change," Amaro said, "but that's what the plan is right now."
It was a sly answer from a man chock full of them. But that is Amaro's job this time of year; to broadcast misinformation and hide his true intentions as best he can.
Do the Phillies want to trade Lee? That remains to be seen. They are at least listening on offers, according to an ESPN.com report Monday. It would be stunning if the Phillies dealt Lee before 4 p.m. Tuesday.
A potential deal makes sense. The Phillies are lacking payroll flexibility and want to acquire younger, major-league-ready prosepcts. Lee, despite an off season and large contract, is a valuable trade chip.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of something actually happening. Here they are, in no particular order:
1. Lee can be traded to only eight teams. Lee, like other Phillies stars, has a no-trade clause inserted in his contract. That clause, according to a source, allows the player to submit a list annually of 21 teams he cannot be traded to without consent.
The identity of the eight teams in play is unknown, but reports say the Texas Rangers are one option. A deal between Texas and Philadelphia is conceivable; the two discussed a potential Cole Hamels trade earlier this month. The Phillies covet third baseman Mike Olt and outfielder Leonys Martin.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are engaged in an arms race with Los Angeles. The Angels just acquired Zack Greinke and trail Texas by five games in the American League West. Texas is familiar with Lee; he pitched in a World Series for them. They have the prospects. They have money.
But what if the Rangers decide the price is too steep for Lee? Well, that leaves seven other unknown options. Any Lee trade would be quite complicated and it's difficult to see something materializing with a new suitor in 24 hours.
That, of course, does not preclude a trade this winter.
2. How many promises can be broken? Lee's wife, Kristen, famously told Amaro that he broke her heart the first time Lee was traded. It was rectified when Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal. The family bought a condo in Rittenhouse and quite enjoys living in Philadelphia.
Indications are Lee was told he would not be dealt this summer. When Hamels signed his megadeal, he said one of the reasons for staying was to pitch with Lee and Halladay. Halladay said he spoke with Amaro, who told him he foresees keeping the rotation together.
Other players take note of such things. If Lee is twice traded by Amaro, especially after recent assurances he would not be, it will reflect negatively.
Then again, it is a business.
3. There is no good read on Halladay's health. Let's say the Phillies deal Lee only to discover in a few weeks Halladay's lat strain is actually a more serious issue. Halladay insists it is not. Charlie Manuel, though, left the door open to shutting down Halladay later this season. He will be 36 next May. Only 13 pitchers who started their careers in the last 30 years have thrown more innings than Halladay by age 35. If he finishes the season, it will be 10 pitchers.
Halladay will be a free agent after 2013 because he will not reach the conditions for a vesting fourth-year option. Even if Halladay is healthy and Lee is traded, that would leave Hamels and four question marks for 2014.
4. Lee is still owed a ton of money. Rival GMs will have to ask themselves this question: Would they sign a 34-year-old pitcher to a three-year, $87.5 million deal this winter? Lee is due about $7 million for the rest of 2012, $25 million per season from 2013-15, and has a $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option for 2016.
The Phillies would almost certainly have to eat money in any deal. If he's traded in the next 24 hours, he is owed at least $95 million. The more money the Phillies eat, the better the prospect haul. And the more money the Phillies eat, the less financial flexibility is achieved.
How willing are the Phillies to pay a significant amount to a pitcher who will not be throwing for them? The objective of the trade will have to be clear: Either the Phillies do it to become younger, or they do it for salary relief.
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This could all be a ploy to test the market now as due diligence for this winter. The Phillies must clear payroll somehow and nowhere is it written that it must be done immediately.
Lee is scheduled to start Tuesday against Stephen Strasburg in Washington. For now, his name is reduced to a trade rumor, but it's much more complicated than that.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
- If the Phillies aren't going to commit $60 million and 4 years to Pence after next year, the time to move him is now. At the end of the day, I don't think he is a winning player. He has too many holes in his game and appears to be uncoachable. He'd be a nice corner outfielder, complementary guy on a great team, but you can't pay those guys $15 million. They want to get Choo who is better and cheaper and I'm all for that.
— jtj06 - Bingo..the few FWF's here want this, want that, with no real idea what they want.. — TexasYankee
- Bobo the basset hound is a nightmare. Please bring in a real GM who won't back the Phils into a corner with every crappy contract he hands out. People act like if they trade or get rid of guys we won't have options. That's what free agency is for. Bring in some guys at more reasonable prices, or here's a crazy idea, at a bargain. 2013 is shaping up like a throwaway season already, lets try to avoid giving away any years after that by letting Bobo make the deals that shape the future.— lazyboy
- Free agency is where most of the overpaid older player contracts come from. Look at the 3B market next year for example. Polanco is younger than a third of the guys who will be available. Trades are needed to get younger players (my opinion). — s
- You are giving basset hounds a bad name by comparing them to amaro.... — jprader
- lazyboy eating paint chips again and playing baseball on his XBox. Yeah these last 5 years of success could have been orchestrated by anybody. Please, go root for the Met's, you would be their perfect fan. — TexasYankee
- The problem is that the team as it is constructed is going nowhere unless unknown players become stars or significant trades are made. Lee, Pence, and Ruiz are the only ones who are tradeable for anything other than a salary dump or lottery ticket. Lee is the most valuable right now specifically to the Texas Rangers who are a great team vying for their title. Dealing him to a place where he was comfortable and has the chance to win isn't such a bad fate and if they wait until the offseason, he loses a ton of value. Amaro has to make a deal now if he can get Olt.— jtj06
- The real problem is that you became a baseball fan in 2008 and haven't a clue about what you are speaking. The Phillies were the best team in Major League Baseball last year. They lost in the playoffs to the team that eventually won the World Series, as they did the year before and the year before that. They had their two best hitters and best pitcher spend significant time on the disabled list this year. If you think a team should be able to weather that and still compete, you are delusional. — PhillyPatriot
- Crazy guy. I still have all the Phillies yearbooks from the 1970s and my Larry Bowa, Joe Horner, Denny Doyle, and Don Money ARCO collector cards. The Phillies had historic simultaneous career years from their starting rotation yet only won 102 games. This showed that unless their talented starters all had career years every year, they'd be in trouble. Ergo this season. They will be bad for a long time unless they make some trades or one of the two or three guys they have in AAA who aren't pushing or over 30 become All-Stars. Utley is not one of their best hitters. He can barely get on the field the last few years and when he does his production is mediocre. That's who he is. Howard is not a good hitter anymore. Historically, fat, unathletic first basemen haven't aged well. This was pointed out by the majority of MLB pundits when Howard was extended. On average, half of a starting rotation will spend time on the disabled list in any year. I can remember former Phillies Luzinski, McBride, Dick Allen, Dave Cash...those guys were out of the game or on their way out by the time they were the age of Utley, Howard, and Rollins, as were Kruk, Daulton, Dystra and more recently Brogna and Lieberthal. — jtj06
- This comment has been deleted. — CornerPretzelGuy
- No pretzel guy, if you follow the Phillies closely for years you've seen this before. After the 1993 World Series run they locked up Dykstra and Daulton, the 30-something year olds- who never returned to form- as the core, for many years at top dollar. Phillies fans know that the next few years were spent counting on and waiting for the return of those two guys. Ultimately we ended up watching a revolving door of dead end guys while the losses piled up. — jtj06
- So you want the Phillies to become the Marlins and just hold players for a few years and trade them for prospects? Sure, the team would be perpetually young, but what kind of a team is that? A glorified triple A team. — PhillyPatriot
- howard is worth 10 times anyone you can mention in the NL with the exception of maybe Votto and Wright,....the perrenial RBI king for the last 7 or 8 years is going nowhere,....albatross??,...huh? what game are you watching, really??,....Howard is worth more on a bad wheel (watch him run) than anyone in the division and that includes perennial Phillie killers Zimmerman and McCann,.....no, Howard is going nowhere,...Amaro might be an idiot, but he's not stupid— SyddBarrett
- Howard's an albatross, because he's paid like an elite superstar, but his production has been in steep decline for several years. Please do not misunderstand me. I'm a Ryan Howard fan, and I'm happy he's a Phillie, but he's grossly overpaid for his production.
Also, RBI isn't a very meaningful statistic, because it centers around what other people in the lineup are doing. Case in point, on a good team, Howard will rack up more RBI, because the people hitting in front of him get on base more often. On a bad team, Howard will rack up fewer RBI, because the people hitting in front of him do not get on base as often.— sfactor - You don't see his value because he's local. If Howard played for another team and we only saw his highlights on Sportscenter, we would be desperate to get him to Philly. He is absolutely an elite player. His production puts him in comparative discussions with greats like Foxx and Ruth. If this achilles tendon does not alter his career, he is a sure fire hall of fame player. In other words, the opposite of an albatross.
— PhillyPatriot
