Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
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Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
In all likelihood, the Phillies will trade Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Juan Pierre. They are free agents this winter and have been scouted extensively by contending teams.
But Ruben Amaro Jr. is hardly predictable this time of year, as evidenced by an exchange with reporters Friday. The general manager was asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — intact.
"Plans can change," Amaro said, "but that's what the plan is right now."
It was a sly answer from a man chock full of them. But that is Amaro's job this time of year; to broadcast misinformation and hide his true intentions as best he can.
Do the Phillies want to trade Lee? That remains to be seen. They are at least listening on offers, according to an ESPN.com report Monday. It would be stunning if the Phillies dealt Lee before 4 p.m. Tuesday.
A potential deal makes sense. The Phillies are lacking payroll flexibility and want to acquire younger, major-league-ready prosepcts. Lee, despite an off season and large contract, is a valuable trade chip.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of something actually happening. Here they are, in no particular order:
1. Lee can be traded to only eight teams. Lee, like other Phillies stars, has a no-trade clause inserted in his contract. That clause, according to a source, allows the player to submit a list annually of 21 teams he cannot be traded to without consent.
The identity of the eight teams in play is unknown, but reports say the Texas Rangers are one option. A deal between Texas and Philadelphia is conceivable; the two discussed a potential Cole Hamels trade earlier this month. The Phillies covet third baseman Mike Olt and outfielder Leonys Martin.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are engaged in an arms race with Los Angeles. The Angels just acquired Zack Greinke and trail Texas by five games in the American League West. Texas is familiar with Lee; he pitched in a World Series for them. They have the prospects. They have money.
But what if the Rangers decide the price is too steep for Lee? Well, that leaves seven other unknown options. Any Lee trade would be quite complicated and it's difficult to see something materializing with a new suitor in 24 hours.
That, of course, does not preclude a trade this winter.
2. How many promises can be broken? Lee's wife, Kristen, famously told Amaro that he broke her heart the first time Lee was traded. It was rectified when Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal. The family bought a condo in Rittenhouse and quite enjoys living in Philadelphia.
Indications are Lee was told he would not be dealt this summer. When Hamels signed his megadeal, he said one of the reasons for staying was to pitch with Lee and Halladay. Halladay said he spoke with Amaro, who told him he foresees keeping the rotation together.
Other players take note of such things. If Lee is twice traded by Amaro, especially after recent assurances he would not be, it will reflect negatively.
Then again, it is a business.
3. There is no good read on Halladay's health. Let's say the Phillies deal Lee only to discover in a few weeks Halladay's lat strain is actually a more serious issue. Halladay insists it is not. Charlie Manuel, though, left the door open to shutting down Halladay later this season. He will be 36 next May. Only 13 pitchers who started their careers in the last 30 years have thrown more innings than Halladay by age 35. If he finishes the season, it will be 10 pitchers.
Halladay will be a free agent after 2013 because he will not reach the conditions for a vesting fourth-year option. Even if Halladay is healthy and Lee is traded, that would leave Hamels and four question marks for 2014.
4. Lee is still owed a ton of money. Rival GMs will have to ask themselves this question: Would they sign a 34-year-old pitcher to a three-year, $87.5 million deal this winter? Lee is due about $7 million for the rest of 2012, $25 million per season from 2013-15, and has a $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option for 2016.
The Phillies would almost certainly have to eat money in any deal. If he's traded in the next 24 hours, he is owed at least $95 million. The more money the Phillies eat, the better the prospect haul. And the more money the Phillies eat, the less financial flexibility is achieved.
How willing are the Phillies to pay a significant amount to a pitcher who will not be throwing for them? The objective of the trade will have to be clear: Either the Phillies do it to become younger, or they do it for salary relief.
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This could all be a ploy to test the market now as due diligence for this winter. The Phillies must clear payroll somehow and nowhere is it written that it must be done immediately.
Lee is scheduled to start Tuesday against Stephen Strasburg in Washington. For now, his name is reduced to a trade rumor, but it's much more complicated than that.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
- Wilhelmi, your posts are hilarious.
— Larry Brown - I agree with JimG: Lee will stay at least through this season. If you think long-term, what the Phillies just did with Hamels and did last off-season with Rollins sends an important message: If you're a Phillie and you play well, we are loyal in return. We will pay you what you're worth and maybe a little more. That's important for players, agents, prospects and even prospects' parents to know. We went after Lee, made him a very rich man, honored the way he and his wife accepted a little less money -- and I think he gets at least another year. Amaro will try to trade Pence, Blanton, Wigginton, Pierre, etc. and then see where the dust settles. Then he'll worry about Lee.— eman
- I think the message the team would be sending is that winning is far down on the list of priorities. Look, Lee has pitched well this year and what do they and he have to show for it? So the future can be more comfortable play by loyal, aging players and no hope for post season play. If everyone wants to be happy, play ball, and cash their checks while they get literally steamrolled by the rest of their division (11-25 this year and those teams have futures) that's fine for them, but that isn't the type of player I want to watch. Cliff Lee came here for a ring, he'll be just as happy to get one with Texas and his current teammates, if they care about winning, will be glad that the front office tried to improve the team. — jtj06
- Why am I starting to forget 2008?— sackvicknow
- Lee's not going anywhere. Amaro is trying to create leverage for a different deal he's working on. Besides, trading top pitchers for prospects rarely nets anything good. Remember the Schilling trade? Or the package we sent to Cleveland for Lee in '09?— everydayguy
- Would hate to see Cliff Lee dealt. I realize it's a business and I want the Phils to retool and win as much as anyone but Cliff's professed loyalty to Philadelphia and willingness to come back after Amaro so greatly disappointed him in 2009 is something tough to ignore.
No matter what happens, my kids and I will always feel a great loyalty to and appreciation for Cliff Lee.— advantasux - Howard's contract is a nightmare that will just keep getting worse. People thinking this is the same guy who tore up pitching from 2006-2009 are delusional. Most clean up hitters on a half way decent team will drive in 100 runs, it's just a product of hitting fourth, but that doesn't make them a superstar like the Howard is getting paid to be. That being said you can't blame Howard..well other than being out of shape. How are GM gets a pass on it is beyond me. He's assembled a team of untradeable contracts. Apparently ownership is too dumb to realize it.— lazyboy
- @Wilhelm vonHumboldt, you, sir, are a scream. Thansk for the daily laughs, dude.
Will be looking for you and your lady tomorrow night.— advantasux - The Phillies gave up their best pitching prospect and their best hitter for Pence. Now they want trade him? Huh? They better get back something of equal value. Same with Cliff Lee. Trade him again for the second time-- AFTER--- signing him asa free agent? Huh? Amaro is looking more and more bizarre if he makes that trade. But who is going to trade for a 34 yr old pitcher with three yrs left on his contract at $25,ooo,ooo per year? Unbelievable.— gusschultz
- Am I going senile? I remember the Phils winning in1993 with 13 wins in a row. They can still come back-just bring up Ryne now.
— philsfansince1946 - Ryan Howard has the worst strikeouts-to-at-bats ratio(1230/3850 = 32%)of any Phillies player in the history of the organization. Look it up on the Phillies home page.— delval
- half of these comments make me want to throw my monitor out of the window.— AndyReidsMustache
- I'm open to some sabermetrics ideas, but this concept that Rbi's are overrated continues to baffle me.
Are there examples of players who consistently drive in over 100 a year? Besides Pujols? Who? No, Howard isn't 2008 Howard, but (apart from this year) is driving in 100 runs a year...and there is value in that.— kgood - Let me play GM today. Right now, we know we have no chance of getting into the playoffs (if we were, we would be kicked out first round). So, what do we do? For pitching, consider shutting down Lee and Halladay by end of August - added rest will do them well in February plus we will reduce the chances of a more serious arm injury in both of them. Try farm club pitchers and give them a chance to shine. For batting, consider shutting down Howard end of August with Lee and Halladay as the extra rest will be good for Howard as he rehabs for February. Utley could be shut down middle of September for same reasons. I cannot say about Shane Victorino and the others who may be traded, but play them if they are still around. The checking of players released could be picked up and used. That way, mistakes will be allowed to be made and learning happens at the same time. Then we go to work on free agents and trades in November. Come February, we will have a team dying to kill and win games!— Aces high
