If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
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If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
Regardless of what source you use for WAR, Michael Bourn, the former Phillies fourth-round draft pick and Braves center fielder, was considered to be a far better player than Upton in 2012.
Bourn's FanGraphs WAR rating of 6.4 ranked 13th in all of baseball. The only National League center fielder that ranked ahead of him was Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, whose 7.4 number was seventh in baseball.
Upton, by comparison, checked in at No. 61 with a 3.3 rating. That number was tied with four players, including former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, who is also on the free-agent market. Tied for 27th at 4.8 was Angel Pagan, another free-agent center fielder who is coming off an outstanding season with the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
If you prefer BaseballReference's WAR rankings, Bourn still checked in ahead of all of the above free-agent center fielders with a 6.0 figure. Upton's BaseballReference WAR total in 2012 was 2.6. Victorino's WAR total slipped to 1.1 last season and has been on the decline the last two seasons. Pagan's total of 4.0 was the second best of his career and he could prove to be the best value of all the free-agent center fielders.
The primary reason for Bourn's high number is his ability to run down balls as a center fielder. He has been considered among the best -- and perhaps even the best -- defensive center fielder since becoming an everyday player with the Houston Astros in 2008.
Add in his ability as baseball's most prolific base stealer and the fact that he is an elite leadoff hitter, and it's understandable how his WAR ranks above all the other free-agent center fielders.
Does he have some warts? Yes, with the biggest one being that he strikes out a lot. He struck out a career-high 155 times last season, but still finished with a .346 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot, which ranked third in the National League among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Bourn, who turns 30 next month, also is a left-handed hitter and the Phillies are more in need of right-handed bats, particularly ones that can infuse some power into the lineup. But Bourn hit ..273 with a .345 on-base percentage against lefties last season, which certainly qualifies as getting the job done.
Pagan, a switch-hitter, batted .271 with a .313 on-base percentage against lefties last season. He is 31 years old. Victorino, also a switch-hitter, batted .323 with a .388 on-base percentage against lefties last season, but hit only .229 with a .296 on-base percentage against righthanders. He turns 32 Friday and let us be the first to say happy birthday to the Flyin' Hawwaiian.
Bourn, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to be the most expensive of the free-agent center fielders this offseason, but if you believe in WAR, he is also the best of the crop.
Don't overpay for Bourne; you can get Victorino for a much lower price, or get Pagan. The Philles don't need another strikeout artist at the top of their lineup.— MUADDIB- Amaro remains an incompetent fool, who has done nothing in 4 years worthwhile other than his lucky trade for Lee from Cleveland and then overpaying for 2 good years from Halladay -- he remains an imbecile with no clue how to build, sustain, or now rebuild a baseball team, who should have preceded Andy Reid out of here..when he's finally outahere after a few consecutive last place finishes, the rebuilding process from the mess he's made will be worse than what the Eagles will need— warbiscuit
- @MUADDIB: "The Philles don't need another strikeout artist at the top of their lineup."
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Back on earth, Rollins is one of the toughest to strike out (19th out of 230 over the past 3 years).
Here is where Rollins ranked among NL leadoff hitters this year:
Walks: 3rd most
Strikeouts: 2nd fewest— schmenkman - with upton and span off the board and the 2 dividion rivals both getting outfield help the phillies now will pursue Bourne, Hamilton or make a trade.if they were willing to trade Cloyd to the Stros in the deal that fell through for the relief pitcher you can assume that he will be included in a deal along with one of their catching prospects and possibly another starter from the team. either worley or Kendiricks for a center fielder and a third basemean. We need a right handed hitter in the mix to bat 5th or 6th. i amsure they will sign a free agent relief pitcher for the 7th or 8th inning once they take care of 3rd base and the outfield.— carltonlakes
- Bourn best defensive OF in baseball. Would steal 60 or so bases and put a lot of pressure on pitchers. Though he's a lefty hitter he's hit lefties as well as righties. That being said Victorino would be half the cost and Shane hits 300 against lefties but 240-50 against righties. You could get Shane for 2 or 3 year deal. Bourn would be looking for 5 or more.— Don w
- rollins will lead off again for phillies in 2013 no matter who is in center field deal with it....— only 9
- Bourn is not the guy to spend that kind of money on. It would be a horrible decision. Hamilton would provide value given the contract length required to sign him and dollars per year without question.
I'd rather stand pat than sign Bourn or Pagan. Hamilton, yes, worth the risk, and Vic wouldn't cost much relatively speaking so he would provide value for your buck as well. Bourn is not a truly elite player, and— CallisonTaylorRojas - ...oops...Pagan is not a true difference maker. You don't want to get desperate here.— CallisonTaylorRojas
- An elite leadoff hitter? 160plus K's? .340 OBP? What is this joker smoking?— JodyMac
- Strikeouts are not that important, period. But they're especially unimportant when there aren't as many runners on base, as in the leadoff spot.
It's true that a strikeout has no chance of falling in or being legged out for a hit, but that's already included in his OBP, OPS, and other stats.— schmenkman - @JodyMac: Maybe not elite, but the NL's highest team OBP in the leadoff spot this year was .346.— schmenkman
- This stupid writer thinks Bourn is better 'cause what the phils wanted they could not get.— tobyjoe
- Blew your shot at Upton....not that he was the answer ....but do not sign Bourne either...will create a acancer in the clubhouse, in the order of JIMMY ROLLINS!!! Bourne is a true leadoff hitter and nothing else in the order, JIMMY on the other hand feels he is, and does not like taking one for the team, and moving down in the order well lets say we told you RAJ— PhillyPhilly
