If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
Regardless of what source you use for WAR, Michael Bourn, the former Phillies fourth-round draft pick and Braves center fielder, was considered to be a far better player than Upton in 2012.
Bourn's FanGraphs WAR rating of 6.4 ranked 13th in all of baseball. The only National League center fielder that ranked ahead of him was Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, whose 7.4 number was seventh in baseball.
Upton, by comparison, checked in at No. 61 with a 3.3 rating. That number was tied with four players, including former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, who is also on the free-agent market. Tied for 27th at 4.8 was Angel Pagan, another free-agent center fielder who is coming off an outstanding season with the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
If you prefer BaseballReference's WAR rankings, Bourn still checked in ahead of all of the above free-agent center fielders with a 6.0 figure. Upton's BaseballReference WAR total in 2012 was 2.6. Victorino's WAR total slipped to 1.1 last season and has been on the decline the last two seasons. Pagan's total of 4.0 was the second best of his career and he could prove to be the best value of all the free-agent center fielders.
The primary reason for Bourn's high number is his ability to run down balls as a center fielder. He has been considered among the best -- and perhaps even the best -- defensive center fielder since becoming an everyday player with the Houston Astros in 2008.
Add in his ability as baseball's most prolific base stealer and the fact that he is an elite leadoff hitter, and it's understandable how his WAR ranks above all the other free-agent center fielders.
Does he have some warts? Yes, with the biggest one being that he strikes out a lot. He struck out a career-high 155 times last season, but still finished with a .346 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot, which ranked third in the National League among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Bourn, who turns 30 next month, also is a left-handed hitter and the Phillies are more in need of right-handed bats, particularly ones that can infuse some power into the lineup. But Bourn hit ..273 with a .345 on-base percentage against lefties last season, which certainly qualifies as getting the job done.
Pagan, a switch-hitter, batted .271 with a .313 on-base percentage against lefties last season. He is 31 years old. Victorino, also a switch-hitter, batted .323 with a .388 on-base percentage against lefties last season, but hit only .229 with a .296 on-base percentage against righthanders. He turns 32 Friday and let us be the first to say happy birthday to the Flyin' Hawwaiian.
Bourn, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to be the most expensive of the free-agent center fielders this offseason, but if you believe in WAR, he is also the best of the crop.
Y'all had me jammin' with the WAR song. I'm gonna keeep it goint. Friend only to the undertaka'!— phillynupe4- guyguy4 - The Mets are looking to extend Wright and would not likely deal him to the Phillies. Stanton is still inexpensive so look for the Marlins to hang on to him.— John Klink
- Michael Bourn is the best available for center field because B.J. Upton has signed with the Braves.— mike 1717
- Are you idiots serious w the Bourn better than Upton talk? Bourn OPS worse that Jimmy Rollins last year and slumped terribly in the 2nd half of a contract year. Letting Bourn walk and then bringing him back for huge money would add to the terrible legacy that is Rube Amaro. BJ Upton is a 30 30 guy and will be mashing the Phils every year. You fools were prob the same ones saying how great Babin was .— 420Phillie
- They need to forget about the long ball theory. That's what got them in trouble in the first place. Need to get back to elbow grease baseball and win with defense, speed, and getting on base......Michael Bourn will provide all of the above. Upton is one dimensional and the Braves way overpaid for him. The only way it hurts the Phillies is that it will drive the market for Bourn and Pagan.— Phillies1986
- one dimensional? you do realize he hits 30 hrs and steals 30 bases? if that's one dimensional can u say Bourn does anything besides run fast? — 420Phillie
- 420, you keep saying that, but Bourn has never hit 30 HR. His numbers have been going up the last 4 seasons (11, 18, 23, 28) but the fact is that he has yet to hit 30 HR in a season. As recently as 2010 he missed your imaginary 30 HR by 12 (and by 19 in 2009). And his .300 BA from 2007 has settled into the mid-.240's.
Like you, I like Upton a lot more than Bourn, but it's based on reality, not fiction, and I don't think the people who feel otherwise are idiots or fools.— 1980 - @1980, you're right -- Bourn does strike out a lot more than Rollins.
Over the past 3 years, 230 players had 1,000 or more plate appearances.
Out of those 230, Rollins had the 19th LOWEST strike out rate (10.8%).
Bourn had the 156th lowest (19.9%).— schmenkman - The Phils would not be hurt if they acquired Michael Bourn, but Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino play just below Bourn's level, are switch hitters with better power numbers, and will be much less expensive to acquire. Pairing Bourn, Pagan or Victorino with a power-hitting third baseman, like Chase Headley, would improve the Phils in many different ways. Other options are to overpay for Josh Hamilton or trade for Giancarlo Stanton or Dexter Fowler. Acquiring Fowler would be an upgrade over Bourn, Pagan or Victorino, but it would also require the addition of Headley. Trading for a new outfielder would cost a boatload of prospects but it would free up money for other acquisitions.— onthebucks
- The main reason Bourn is better is that it would ensure that J-Roll is not the leadoff hitter.— PhightinPhil
- This is one reason I do like Bourn. Getting any true lead-off hitter would force the issue once and for all. I really think Jimmy is better off hitting lower in the lineup at this point. — s
- Bourne is the best of the lot...strike outs included. But I don't like having to deal with Boras as his agent. He should lead off, but maybe would accept a No. 2 role better than others have. He will bunt Rollins over...if JRoll ever gets on, but vice versa might not go as well. Can Jimmy even bunt?
But I like Pagan also, and I think you would get a great work ethic from him. Just don't know if he would be liked and accepted here. He would take the No 2 hole as he already was doing in SF, right?— ocpizza - ocpizza, unless the pitcher is batting, it's almost never a good idea to give up an out and bunt the runner over.— schmenkman
- Consider what the Phils next outfield acquisition is likely to cost, without considering additional option years. The following numbers are based on latest media reports and are purely conjecture: 1) Bourn - Asking $80 - 100 million for 5 years (Might accept $50 milion for 3 years); 2) Hamilton - Asking $175 million for 7 years (Might accept $100 - 110 million for 4 years); 3) Pagan - Asking $50 - 60 million for 5 years (Might accept $35 - 40 million for 3 years); 4) Victorino - Asking $50 - 60 million for 5 years (Might accept $30 - 35 million for 3 years) 5) Fowler - Currently earning $2.35 million yearly with arbitration eligibility in 2013 and under team control until 2016; and 6) Stanton - Currently earning $480,000 yearly with arbitration eligibility in 2014 and under team control until 2017. From a pure business perspective, acquiring the 23 year old slugger, Giancarlo Stanton, via trade seems to be the smartest move.— onthebucks
