If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
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If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
Regardless of what source you use for WAR, Michael Bourn, the former Phillies fourth-round draft pick and Braves center fielder, was considered to be a far better player than Upton in 2012.
Bourn's FanGraphs WAR rating of 6.4 ranked 13th in all of baseball. The only National League center fielder that ranked ahead of him was Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, whose 7.4 number was seventh in baseball.
Upton, by comparison, checked in at No. 61 with a 3.3 rating. That number was tied with four players, including former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, who is also on the free-agent market. Tied for 27th at 4.8 was Angel Pagan, another free-agent center fielder who is coming off an outstanding season with the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
If you prefer BaseballReference's WAR rankings, Bourn still checked in ahead of all of the above free-agent center fielders with a 6.0 figure. Upton's BaseballReference WAR total in 2012 was 2.6. Victorino's WAR total slipped to 1.1 last season and has been on the decline the last two seasons. Pagan's total of 4.0 was the second best of his career and he could prove to be the best value of all the free-agent center fielders.
The primary reason for Bourn's high number is his ability to run down balls as a center fielder. He has been considered among the best -- and perhaps even the best -- defensive center fielder since becoming an everyday player with the Houston Astros in 2008.
Add in his ability as baseball's most prolific base stealer and the fact that he is an elite leadoff hitter, and it's understandable how his WAR ranks above all the other free-agent center fielders.
Does he have some warts? Yes, with the biggest one being that he strikes out a lot. He struck out a career-high 155 times last season, but still finished with a .346 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot, which ranked third in the National League among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Bourn, who turns 30 next month, also is a left-handed hitter and the Phillies are more in need of right-handed bats, particularly ones that can infuse some power into the lineup. But Bourn hit ..273 with a .345 on-base percentage against lefties last season, which certainly qualifies as getting the job done.
Pagan, a switch-hitter, batted .271 with a .313 on-base percentage against lefties last season. He is 31 years old. Victorino, also a switch-hitter, batted .323 with a .388 on-base percentage against lefties last season, but hit only .229 with a .296 on-base percentage against righthanders. He turns 32 Friday and let us be the first to say happy birthday to the Flyin' Hawwaiian.
Bourn, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to be the most expensive of the free-agent center fielders this offseason, but if you believe in WAR, he is also the best of the crop.
Regarding emphasis on defense, it's not "undue." As the old saying goes "a run saved is a run earned".
But saying he's the best based on one season's production is not that good of an idea, especially when you factor in his age and that most of his value comes from his speed, which doesn't do well as players age.— schmenkman- I didn't say that WAR shouldn't account for defense at all. I said that there is criticism out there that defense is given undue emphasis - in other words, that defense stats are given too muc statistical weight.
I agree with you about Bourn. Also, the people who complain bout Rollins' high K's and low OBP will complain twice as loud about Bourn. I haven't looked at the stats recently, but if I remember correctly, Bourn strikes out more than Rollins.— 1980 - Hey, Dufus, if you actually would have read the article, you wouldn't have to look it up. The writer states that Bourn had a .345 OBP which was 3rd in the NL for players with 400 plate appearances so I guess your theory is blown. But can you just take a minute and explain why you would comment under a sports article without having read it? It's a little weird and a little lonely. — UncleStosh
- I wasn't commenting about the article, dbag, and the only comment I made about OBP concerns Rollins, not Bourn. The comment I made about Bourn refers to his K's. Why would you comment on a comment that you either haven't read or don't understand? And are you this much of a drama queen in what passses for your real life? — 1980
- I meant to add that i'd love for Josh Hamilton to be a Phillie, but dont' see it happening. Concerned about his drop off after the torrid start last year, and whether he'd be comfortable in mean old Philly. Watched him play high school ball down here in Raleigh, but with his emotional make up he might get slain by the dragons of my beloved home town.— retzlaff
- I have to say I'm relieved they didn't give 75 million to Upton, he is one of the most overrated players in the league, IMO. I'll start by saying I'd welcome Shane back in a second, I think he will come back for a reasonable contract and they can save money there and get above league average production. I'd prefer Bourn though for several reasons. a) defensively he is one of the 3 best in the business and if Ruf is going to play LF you need that. b) he is effective at getting on base against lefties and righties, he will steal a ton of bases and when a pitcher is concerned with baserunners they tend to miss spots, I'd be very interested to see pitchers numbers against the Braves last year when Bourn was on base with the base ahead of him open compared to other situations. c) I think he can be had for 3 years 39 mil.— mdb20
- @retzlaff, did you miss the memo that CBP doesn't boost home runs?— schmenkman
- Ruf, Bourne and Mayberry in the OF...ummmm YEAH!— KIBecker
- Josh Hamilton!— Colonel Angus
- David Wright or Mike Stanton.— guyguy4
- Rumors swirling are that Bourn will be looking for a comparable salary/years contract as Upton just got. As much as I like the player he is not worth the contract. Pagan is the best value CF on the market right now. If Hamilton can be had for a reasonable price (considering the off-the-field issues this past year and a decline in production in the second half of the year) I would go for that as well - if not then maybe Ross? Go right/left platoon in left with Brown and Ruf, Pagan in center, Ross or Hamilton in right. Pagan bats lead off and moves Rollins down in the order. Glavis/Frandsen platoon at 3rd unless the outfield is Brown/Ruf, Pagan and Ross then look to pick up Youkilis or look for a trade to add a little more pop to the lineup via 3rd. Kratz is your starting catcher until Ruiz is back. Trade for Lopez has supposedly hit a snag and may not happen now so we still need a solid set-up man in the pen. Problem to address IMO are CF then set-up man then RF and finally 3rd.— MadChemist13
- More than likely Bourn will be signing with the Washington Nationals. DC and Detroit are the new pipelines for Scott clients. Don't look for Bourn to sign any where before the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville wish begin on Sunday.— AlPhaGriot
- I think a trade for Dexter Fowler would be better off for the Phillies,or Maybin from the Padres possibly.-Both very good centerfielders, and less money .This would enable Amaro, to go out and
get a veteran 3rd Baseman, or who knows what the Philllies may need,once the season begins.— flyers11 - tell em schmenk!— Ryne Duren
