If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
If you go to WAR, Bourn is the best available CF
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
If you believe in WAR -- the baseball acronym for wins above replacement -- then the best center fielder on the free-agent market is still available even after the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton Wednesday.
Regardless of what source you use for WAR, Michael Bourn, the former Phillies fourth-round draft pick and Braves center fielder, was considered to be a far better player than Upton in 2012.
Bourn's FanGraphs WAR rating of 6.4 ranked 13th in all of baseball. The only National League center fielder that ranked ahead of him was Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, whose 7.4 number was seventh in baseball.
Upton, by comparison, checked in at No. 61 with a 3.3 rating. That number was tied with four players, including former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, who is also on the free-agent market. Tied for 27th at 4.8 was Angel Pagan, another free-agent center fielder who is coming off an outstanding season with the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
If you prefer BaseballReference's WAR rankings, Bourn still checked in ahead of all of the above free-agent center fielders with a 6.0 figure. Upton's BaseballReference WAR total in 2012 was 2.6. Victorino's WAR total slipped to 1.1 last season and has been on the decline the last two seasons. Pagan's total of 4.0 was the second best of his career and he could prove to be the best value of all the free-agent center fielders.
The primary reason for Bourn's high number is his ability to run down balls as a center fielder. He has been considered among the best -- and perhaps even the best -- defensive center fielder since becoming an everyday player with the Houston Astros in 2008.
Add in his ability as baseball's most prolific base stealer and the fact that he is an elite leadoff hitter, and it's understandable how his WAR ranks above all the other free-agent center fielders.
Does he have some warts? Yes, with the biggest one being that he strikes out a lot. He struck out a career-high 155 times last season, but still finished with a .346 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot, which ranked third in the National League among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Bourn, who turns 30 next month, also is a left-handed hitter and the Phillies are more in need of right-handed bats, particularly ones that can infuse some power into the lineup. But Bourn hit ..273 with a .345 on-base percentage against lefties last season, which certainly qualifies as getting the job done.
Pagan, a switch-hitter, batted .271 with a .313 on-base percentage against lefties last season. He is 31 years old. Victorino, also a switch-hitter, batted .323 with a .388 on-base percentage against lefties last season, but hit only .229 with a .296 on-base percentage against righthanders. He turns 32 Friday and let us be the first to say happy birthday to the Flyin' Hawwaiian.
Bourn, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to be the most expensive of the free-agent center fielders this offseason, but if you believe in WAR, he is also the best of the crop.
onthebucks, IF Miami was willing to trade him, and within the division at that, the other cost that needs to be considered is all of the assets that would be transferred to Miami (i.e. any remaining decent prospects the Phillies might have). Then Stanton steps in a divot in May, shreds his ankle, and is never the same again.— schmenkman- I`ll take Bourn in CF over Upton.. If they can`t work out a trade for someone else I think this is your best possible option for the Phils.. His speed and defense alone are a huge upgrade over everyone else we have, and then we could get Rollins out of the lead off spot, bc we all know he does`t belong there..
— Dangles 28 - Friend only to the undertaker. Say it, say it, say it.— PhillySubsMac
- Bourn does not solve the mystery of who bats in the 5 hole, as Upton would have. But the best bet all along has been Pagan, including his excellent (albeit less so than Bourn's)defensive skills.Topping the Pagan option would be Stanton, if Rube can pull off another minor miracle.— Ringsider
- I don't know much about WAR, but I do not think signing Bourne to a five year $80-90 million contract is the best business or baseball decision. I just don't think they need another left handed hitter that strikes out a lot. Plus his stolen base % is already declining so even in three years, what will you be left with? Another contract that is way over-priced (think Howard contract). I'd prob go with Pagan for three yrs and $36 million if possible.— MrPhillie
- "If Rube can pull off another minor miracle?" All Amaro has done since taking over the GM job is to cause the Phillies to finish worse off than each of the previous years.— ED4050
- The issues with getting Bourn back, besides dealing with Boras, is he's another LH hitter. He also did poorly in the second-half for some reason. If that's a trend, then what do we get other than defense? If Ruf does get LF, yes then we need the defense. As noted above, worked with Garry and Greg. We would then still need one more RH power hitter. 3B would be the best place, but no one is supposedly available. I guess we'll ahve to wait and see what rabbits RAJ pulls out of his hat this off-season.— andivalspoppop
- I totally agree. I think this move works great if thy get Bourn plus a corner OF who has power, and hits righthanded. The other issue is age...30 yr old player who's game it built around speed. How is the deal going to look 2 years down the road?
It would be great to see RAJ swing two trades, one for a young up and coming OF and one for a solid corner guy. Then you can platoon Dom and Ruf and see who wins that job.— ryanrockzzz - I dont care what stat you give me about how good Bourn HAS BEEN, its about what he does the next 5 or so years he's under contract. and he's going to be a speed guy with aging legs who strikes out alot. and you can find them a lot cheaper than you'll be paying for this guy.— jim715
- absolutely Ruffin
— jfdatl - schmenk, The Phils could trade 5 top prospects to the Marlins for Stanton and still not get hurt. The reason is none of these prospects are likely to help the Phils significantly during the next 3 years - the very period of time the core Phillie team, plus an impact outfielder, third-baseman and pitcher could make 3 world series appearances. There are a few Phillie prospects who are untouchable, but guys like Gillies, Asche, and Valle are not going to help the Phils in the next few seasons and are, therefor, expendable, as are a few players currently on the Phils major league roster, such as Cloyd. While these guys were busy getting their feet wet in the bigs down in Miami, guys like Stanton would be helping the Phils win games. All the while, the Phils would be acquiring new prospects with which to replenish their farm system. As far as Stanton tripping and ending his career, the same argument could be made for any or all of the players the Phils might trade to Miami. Stanton is 23 years old and hit 37 homers last season. That's 50 homer potential in Philly - and that's just until Stanton gets old enough to be able to figure things out for himself. If the Phil were to land him, they could get by with Galvis and Frandsen at third and still have the money to sign Grienke. That frees up more Phils to trade if necessary. If I were running the show, I'd tell the Marlins to give me 7 names they would trade for Stanton - and then I would give them 5 of those 7 - and never look back.— onthebucks
- @onthebucks, I agree it would be great to have him, but it's high risk. There's the constant balancing act between winning now and being competitive in the future, and that move would move a lot of weight to the win now side of the scale (as did the Halladay and Pence trades).
Anyway, I don't think they would want to trade him within the division, and even if they did the Phillies are not in the best position to wow them with prospects.— schmenkman - When was the last time the Phillies signed a Scott Boras client? He's going to Washington. That would leave us with Pagan or Victorino, who will probably be traded shortly after the all-star break. The party is over people.— Setdawgy
- Bourn would a worse signing than Upton.. That's all the Phils need is another "speed" guy, hitting his 30's when the "speed" disappears, that strikes out way too much.. In this case, with ZERO pop in his bat as well.— FetchDixon
- schmenk, After their recent house cleaning, the Marlins will not be competetive in the NL East for the foreseeable future, so it really doesn't matter where they trade anybody this season. The Phils have some exceptional prospects and some very young talent that might interest the Marlins. Look at it this way - Giancarlo Stanton is only 23 years old but he hits home runs with the same frequency as Josh Hamilton. The major differences between the two besides age are the fact Hamilton is a left-handed hitter and Stanton a right and, in 2013, Hamilton will cost a team approximately $25,000,000 while Stanton will cost $480,000.— onthebucks
